2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf Bernie Closes the Gap and You're a Superdelegate...
wouldn't you be tempted to switch to the candidate with the momentum and supporter enthusiasm, who wins in purple states instead of just the deep south?
hack89
(39,171 posts)dchill
(38,532 posts)in their delegate counts?
hack89
(39,171 posts)Hillary's lead in pledged delegates is practically insurmountable. Super delegates only play a role if there is more than one candidate. Hillary will enough delegates to win without the supers by early June at the latest.
dchill
(38,532 posts)New firewall: NY.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511605039
hack89
(39,171 posts)he has yet to win a big state in a blow out. That is the only way he will get enough deletes to catch up. Hillary can conceivably lose every remaining state and still win the nomination. Bernie can conceivably win every remaining state and still lose the nomination. While neither will happen, that should give you pause.
dchill
(38,532 posts)should be given pause.
hack89
(39,171 posts)She will have some big victories in the next month that will put it away for her.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)before there were any pledged delegates, and her lead is based on the perception of inevitability that created.
rock
(13,218 posts)First momentum does not exist (it's a reification). Secondly the SD should vote the way his constituency votes, unless he has a specific reason for doing otherwise. There are political consequences if he doesn't (I mean to the SD!).
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...it's Sanders who is most reliant on "red" areas. Once he wins Wyoming, he will have won the 4 'reddest' states in the US. If you look at the list of 24 states Romney won in 2012 (with #1 being the state he won by the largest margin and #24 being the state he won by the smallest margin), you find that most of the Deep South states are in the bottom half of the list, while the states Sanders is winning are the reddest of the red.
Clinton won, handily, the 2 most important 'purple' states: Ohio and Florida.
And chances are Clinton's lead will be greater a month from now than it was a week ago. A majority of the remaining delegates are in states that Clinton typically wins: populous, diverse states.
The Clinton-Red State meme lives on, but it doesn't become true just because people keep repeating it.
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)who is doubling down on her support for Hillary despite the blowout on Saturday, and she's quickly unfriending anyone who calls her out on it. We have another super delegate who announced support for Bernie yesterday. Two remain undecided. If those two decide to go for Clinton, there will be fireworks at the convention in May.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)The ultimate swing states with tons of electoral votes.