PPP: Obama, Romney tied heading into debate (48-48)

[TroyD]

October 21, 2012

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are dead even at 48% headed into tomorrow's debate, based on an average of PPP's national tracking between Friday and Sunday. Barack Obama had a small lead in Friday interviews, Mitt Romney had a slight advantage on Saturday, and the candidates were dead even on Sunday.

Our tracking isn't providing any real surprises along demographics lines. Obama is up 50/46 with women, 61/33 with Hispanics, 85/9 with African Americans, and 50/39 with young voters. Romney is up 51/44 with men, 57/39 with whites, and 51/47 with seniors. One key for Romney is that he's up 51/41 with independents, which helps him make up for the party identification advantage Democrats have nationally.

Obama's approval rating is 45% with 50% of voters disapproving of him, making it important that he make a compelling case for voters tomorrow night about why his first term has been a success. Romney's favorability rating is back on positive ground at 49/45, while Obama's is dead even at 48/48.

Here's the state of the race headed into the final debate: it's tied nationally, and the candidates are within 2 points of each other on the most recent PPP surveys in the critical swing states of Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. It could not be a whole lot closer.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-heading-into-debate.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TrackingPoll_1021.pdf

[OldDem2012]

1. Yeah, right. nt.

[leftofcool]

2. Horseshit!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Robocaller/nt

[ffr]

4. I've only been included in one poll, I voted.

I don't have a landline and no other polling system has me in their records this election cycle. Not one.

For President/VP: Obama-Biden

Checkmate.

[RBInMaine]

5. Obama is winning a higher percentage of women than this, even more African Americans, and

other numbers are not adding up either. I bet Obama has a bit more than this.

[progressivebydesign]

6. Oh this is just getting stupid. Asshole Romney has a higher approval rating??

what fucking planet IS that on?? I've talked to not ONE person that voted for Obama last time, and going to Romney. Not one. People I thought would vote for Romney are teling me "hell no! there's something creepy about him!" Very few stickers or signs, on the internet, the majority of comments on ALL stories are pro-obama. He has over 4 million SMALL donations, Romney's donations have been almost all from bunders and billionaires.

There is no way. I want to see the exact break down of their poll. Because this is absolute bullshit.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Robocaller/Misses Young People And Down Scale Voters/Has To Make Wild Ass Guesses To Compensate/nt

[erik satie]

8. The PPPers must have been

sniffing Mitt's magical undergarments.

[TroyD]

9. PPP's numbers have been more generous to the Republicans lately

But we are seeing close races and ties in some of the other national polling as well (eg. NBC).

I would assume the African American and Latino numbers are higher than that shown by PPP.

Latino Decisions has usually had Obama in the mid to high sixties in support, so 61 is a little low. And 85 also seems low for Obama among African Americans. The number is expected to be less than in 2008, but I would assume it would be more like 90.

Not sure what the case is on the gender breakdown. Even Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says he had to tell Obama that Romney gained ground with women voters after the first debate.

Women are usually smarter than men, so I'm hoping most women are smart enough not to fall for Romney like the majority of men seem to be.

[Maximumnegro]

10. It's just PPP folks. I know it feels like betrayal

but the upside is other reputable polls show otherwise.

[Tribetime]

11. fucking no way up 10% with independents fuck this poll