Bernie in the Bronx, Can Sanders stun Hillary Clinton in the state they’ve both claimed as home?

[NWCorona]

BRONX, New York—Mercer Jabul sat quietly at the very top of a hill at St. Mary’s Park, huddled underneath a hooded white coat as she waited, with an estimated 18,500 others, for Bernie Sanders to arrive in the South Bronx. A black woman in her 60s, Jabul is devoted to Sanders and said she has plans to vote for him in New York’s April 19 primary. But she wasn’t positive she was going to vote at all. It had been quite a while.

“I haven’t voted since Mayor Lindsay!” she told me. That would be John Lindsay, the long-ago New York mayor who made unsuccessful bids for president and Senate. He left City Hall in 1973, and the last time he appeared on a ballot was 1980. He died in 2000.

Jabul is a retired social worker who grew up in Harlem and now lives on the Lower East Side of Manhattan. Part of her affinity for Sanders stems from the fact that she has seen him more than most New Yorkers in recent years: She owns a second home in Vermont. “Bernie hasn’t changed for decades,” Jabul said. “He’s just a fighter.”

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/bernie-sanders-bronx-hillary-clinton-new-york-upset/476472/


I for one never thought Hillary would blowout Bernie in NY but I did think she'd win. Not so much anymore. It would be ironic that it might be Hillary's home turf that knocks her out of the race.

[onehandle]

1. No. nt

[StevieM]

2. I doubt that Bernie will beat her in NY, but that aside...you're saying that her campaign is OVER

if she loses there? She's knocked out of the race? While leading by over two-hundred pledged delegates?

Perhaps you could argue that it would set into motion losses in Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Jersey and California, and that ultimately Sanders would prevail. But you're saying that Hillary's campaign would come to an end right then and there? And if it didn't then that would be widely seen as pathetic and ridiculous?

In any event, I expect Hillary to win NY by a wide margin.

[NWCorona]

3. No I'm not saying it will be over right afterwards

But I can understand how you'd get that from my comment. if Hillary loses NY she will be on her way out and I can't see how Hillary could recover. Bernie is on track to win the next two primaries and he has a strong shot at NY.

I'm gonna guess Bernie wins by +9

That's just my two cents

[StevieM]

8. OK, I see what you are saying. Here is my take on it:

Last edited Fri Apr 1, 2016, 07:55 PM - Edit history (1)

I don't see how Bernie can win NY by 9 points. I think Hillary wins by 15.

I think Wisconsin is about a 6 point victory for Sanders.

Wyoming is a caucus, not a primary, which means Sanders should do very well there. But it is the smallest state (population wise) so there won't be many delegates to pick up.

Obviously we won't actually know how it plays out until April 19, and even then we will have to see how NY alters--or doesn't alter--the race, starting a week later with PA, MD, DE, RI and CT.

I appreciate your civility. I don't like all the shouting matches.

[NWCorona]

11. My 9 point prediction is definitely wishful

But I can hope.

I haven't paid much attention to Wisconsin other than play with delegate spread but I hope it's more than 10.

I kinda feel bad for Wyoming as it's just a blip on the map. And you are right about it being a caucuse. I tend to call them all primaries out of ease but probably shouldn't.

When has 19 days ever seemed so far away!

Thanks and I do appreciate that. I try to respect other people's view. Even if it runs counter to mine.

[hrmjustin]

4. Well from my canvassing I don't think Bernie will win.

I think Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Queens are out of reach for Sanders. Manhattan and The Bronx are not out of reach but i will believe it when I see it.

[NWCorona]

5. I know it's an up hill battle but I'm feeling more confident than ever

These next few weeks will be critical for both campaigns!

I so want to be at the next debate!

[hrmjustin]

6. Go out snd canvass this weekend or phonebank if you can.

It helps calm the nerves and makes you feel better.

[StevieM]

9. I don't know about Manhattan, but the Bronx seems good for Clinton with all the

African-American and Latino voters.

[hrmjustin]

10. Yes. I think Bernie's strength will be upstate.

But it is a closed primary.

[Jennylynn]

7. They need to make up their minds

Is New York her home state or is it Illinois?
She doesn't get both.
And yes, I know she was born in one and Senator in another.

[nichomachus]

12. Bernie was born there. Hillary helicoptered in with her carpet bags. nt

[Chezboo]

13. And he still lived there longer than she has. nt