***** People something Epic is happening in North Carolina *****

[grantcart]

Last edited Mon Oct 22, 2012, 01:29 PM - Edit history (1)

No place shows the underside of how fragile the whole polling world is than North Carolina.

You see pollsters have to put a person in a box. Are you registered? Are you likely to vote?

Well in North Carolina there is only one category for those that 'get your butt off the sofa' and those that 'stay glued to the TV'.

The reason is that with "One Stop Registering and Voting" there is no such thing as an unregistered voter during early voting.

Look at this picture. Some may be registered. Some may not be. Soon they will have all voted:



Thanks to courseofhistory for the link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251162085

You want to see a real poll?

matttx at daily kos (with some other friends) have real numbers of actual voters. Of course we don't know how people actually voted but you can get a pretty good idea and you can check out his methodology on his first post:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147522/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-3-Epic-Turnout-42-709-Unlikely-Voters-Have-Already-Voted




It is showing Obama 2012 beating Obama 2008 by 50,000 votes and Obama 2012 beating Romney by 40,000 votes

Here is what Nate show an astounding 85% chance that Romney will take North Carolina even though the last poll shows Obama up by 3.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

but then Nate is still giving high marks to Gravis polling that is showing Romney up by 9 points.

Real Clear Politics has Romney ahead by 5 points.

Wouldn't be something if it was all those trashy polls that motivated the fine citizens of North Carolina to get out and re elect President Obama.

Oh by the way in a thread at FR Kaplan reveals that he has gone out and hired a statistician.

In so doing he confirms one of our primary assertions, that he doesn't have the expertise.

Now if Romney can't win Ohio, he has a very slender chance of winning the electoral college but if he can't win in North Carolina and Ohio there is no scenario that gets him in.


Now those of you that are betting that Gravis numbers in North Carolina are 'solid gold', you aren't drawing to an inside straight you are betting that aliens will land before January 1, 2013 and that bigfoot steps out speaking fluent Navajo.

And for you I have this link:

http://www.amazon.com/Speak-Navajo-Alan-Wilson/dp/1579701981

Tell them you go to one of the several diploma mills that Douglas Kaplan says he went to and they will ship it FREE.

Call now operators are waiting.




Edited to add

Sunday numbers here, more good news

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/22/1147893/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-4-African-American-Turnout-Doubles-White-GOP-Turnout-Sunday

will update later

[liberal N proud]

1. We all should be able to walk up and register and then vote on the spot

This crap of registering, waiting until you get your registration card which only tells you were to vote, then going to the polls and being required to show your photo ID so you can get a ballot is ridiculous and only designed to weed out voters.

[TroyD]

21. I agree

I think registering to vote right up until Election Day is allowed in other Western countries.

[Raster]

2. I'm with you. I think we may see something epic in NC that today's pollsters may be missing.

And it is oh-so-good to hear that Kaplan has been so shaken up by interested parties taking him to the woodshed that he has to hire someone to verify - or at least attempt to veriy his numbers, which WE KNOW ARE CRAP.

There is no way Gravis numbers are solid gold; Pyrite perhaps, but certainly NOT GOLD.

[progressivebydesign]

8. of course judging by his past hires, who KNOWs what the statistician really is.

A beer buddy with a degree from the same school as Kaplan?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

3. GC. Thanks for posting. Very interesting. Question for you

Do the national polls we see out there include early voters? Or are they all different and you have to look into the fine print methodology? If evs are included, then banking early votes is moot.

I really can't see NC changing it's demographic that much since 2008. Like 9 points up for MR. Charlotte and Chapel Hill are still there and growing.

[grantcart]

7. They don't factor early voting except to classify as a 'likely voterm

[blm]

4. We have been working hard here - PLEASE HELP Us continue our GOTV.

If we carry Meck County in huge numbers then we can take back NC Legislature and keep Governor. It's all on our GOTV - if you can donate, please do it today.

http://www.mecklenburgdemocrat.org/

[Cha]

33. Thank YOU, blm!!! nm

[barbtries]

48. you really think dalton can win?

just for that i'm going to donate a few bucks right now. honestly i had bought into the meme that it was mcrory's for sure.

[blm]

58. Straight ticket voting will be a huge help in Mecklenburg County which is a Dem county

and has been since 2004. It's McCrory's home county, so if Dems can prevail there then we should be able to pull Dalton through.

[LonePirate]

5. I posted this in a thread yesterday about this same article and data. We're in trouble in NC.

These numbers do not impress me. We need a much bigger lead to counter Election Day voting that overwhelmingly favors the Rs.

Obama's Day 3 2012 total is ahead of Obama's Day 4 2008 total; but Robme's Day 3 total is ahead of McLame's 2008 Day 5 total. That's a one day advantage for the evildoers. Plus, Obama's 2012 Day 3 margin is only ahead of Obama's Day 2 2008 margin, which is a day's loss. Then there is the 2012 % Obama margin which is already a couple of points lower than the 2008 % Obama margin. That margin needs to be higher. In 2008, Obama lost just over 7 points from his Day 3 % Obama lead when compared to the final overall 2008 results in NC. If that happens again this year, we lose the state.

Yes, it's great that more people are voting early. However, I'm not convinced Obama is racking up the numbers he needs to win NC.

[LisaL]

10. If both parties are emphasizing early voting then you can't really compare 2012 to 2008.

I don't know if we will win NC, but at least we are GOTV and putting up a big fight.
Hopefully it continues.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

12. I've looked at the statistics, at 2008's calendar and so on, and...

..I have to agree. North Carolina is almost certainly a Romney state. It'd nice to be proven wrong, but I can't imagine you'll be seeing any of the key players making appearances or buying a huge amount of advertising in NC. I dare say Romney's 78.5% chance on Intrade seems very low.

With that said...I would love to be horribly wrong. Feel free to bookmark this post in order to mock me if that ends up being the case.

[grantcart]

32. What numbers impresses you the most? Gravis up by 9

or grove (the lastest poll) that shows Obama up by 3?


http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/new_democraticleaning_poll_shows_obama_up_4744_in_nc


No pollster in NC has or can make a model that accounts for one stop registration and pollling.

That is why it is so different

[Mutiny In Heaven]

34. As I said, I'll be thrilled to be wrong.

But it was so slender a win for Obama last time that I just can't see it holding out. I accept that the early voting numbers that show the GOP closing the gap over 2008 could simply be a case of them getting more of their voters to the polls early, I think that there will be just enough to see them cross the line this time around.

If Romney can only take it by a couple of points, however, that bodes well for President Obama nationwide.

There's definitely food for thought; I mean, there's been much more publicity surrounding the early vote this time around, so yeah, it could be that the GOP base hasn't really expanded and that there's just more of them foaming at the mouth to register their vote against the President early.

The thing I take overall, however, is that they'd have surely closed the gap further if the 'enthusiasm gap' was going to play as big a part as we're constantly told it will.

It's also worth noting that Bush beat Kerry by 5% or less among early voters (despite Kerry having a swing state advantage) so if Obama goes into election day with a 10% lead nationwide, he's in a strong position.

[Drunken Irishman]

52. The problem is, just looking at one poll does no one any good...

Even if you take out that Gravis poll, which even I agree is an outlier, and add the Grove (partisan) poll, Romney still leads 48.3-46.6 - a margin that is definitely doable, but not necessarily enough for me to feel good about Obama's chances there.

That's with a Democratic-leaning pollster giving Obama a lead, which may or may not be correct. Take Grove out and Romney leads 50.5 to 46.5 - a four point margin.

Until I see more consistent polls putting Obama up, I'm going to guess North Carolina is probably leaning Romney. I think it'll definitely be close, but right now, Romney leads. That can change, tho. I don't doubt a sudden shift of 1-3 points could give Obama this state. But at its current pace, it'll go Romney.

[grantcart]

53. The problem in NC is that they have one stop register/voting

So when a pollster asks are you registered and a person says no, they are bounced from the poll giving it a skew.

Now in AZ where I moved that would make sense because registration is closed but in NC there is no such thing as a person that is not registered, they can go down tomorrow register and vote.

The numbers are in for Sunday, a critical day and according to the DailyKos guy Romney's numbers show McCain voters voting early and Obama's numbers are showing about 20,000 new voters.

We are ahead 70,000 by this guys methodology after 4 days.

Better than I expected.

[grantcart]

13. Interesting point. The DailyKos writer seems to have addressed that.

Based on his detailed examination of where the numbers are occuring he is stating that the Romney numbers basically mean that they have the same people voting, just earlier

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/21/1147522/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-3-Epic-Turnout-42-709-Unlikely-Voters-Have-Already-Voted

Well, new voter registration statistics have been released, and so now we have the evidence to back up that speculation. This is an over-generalization, but broadly Obama is indeed turning out new voters, whereas Romney is turning out the same old voters.

In total, 324,780 people voted in One-Stop Early Voting on Thursday and Friday. Of those, 42,709 were brand new previously unregistered voters. They did not pass any poll's "likely voter" screen, nor did they even pass any poll's registered voter screen. And yet, they voted. And it is clear that they voted overwhelmingly for Obama (probably by about 2 to 1).

Do you agree with those numbers?

It will be interesting to see what the Sunday numbers bring us.

[Maximumnegro]

14. Yeah Yeah Yeah, Look here's the thing

The question is whether Romney supporters are NEW voters or just voters who are voting NOW instead of LATER thereby reducing the amount who will show up election day. We are banking on Obama having more a LOT more new voters due to the massive frickin' ground game. So that's where your analysis is probably wrong. In other words the Romney numbers are potentially frontloaded.

[blm]

15. We outregistered GOP this year, too.

.

[LisaL]

16. ITA.

More republicans might be voting early this year. So it might not be fair to compare 2012 numbers to 2008.

[grantcart]

24. sunday numbers up 50% over last year

[Drunken Irishman]

51. I agree...I'd feel better if Obama's margins in NC were bigger last go around.

But even with some killer numbers on '08 early voting, he still nearly lost the state. I don't know if I see anything out of here that makes it look like Obama is going to pack away enough votes to make up the gap on election day. It's possible, obviously, but if I had to bank on North Carolina going to someone, I'd say it's going Romney.

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

56. We are making trouble in NC

the people are voting now, its like money in the bank,during so helps in so many ways the polls will less crowded ,obama staff in better able to plan, we may have bad weather ,low turn out then the early vote increase in value. do give up when you are ahead

[ProfessionalLeftist]

6. Last time this will happen. RepubliKlan governor is on the way

And NC has a majority RepubliKlan legislature.

They will SHUT DOWN early voting and same-day registration/voting. Guaranteed. And implement Voter ID. NClinians better enjoy this because it's the LAST time it'll happen.

[struggle4progress]

19. Think positive!

[SunSeeker]

57. But you must try...try and try...you'll succeed at last!

Love me some Jimmy Cliff. Good song to walk to the polls to!

[bemildred]

23. Aren't they still being supervised under the Voting Rights Act?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act

Why yes, yes they are, or at least the following counties:

North Carolina: Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Camden, Caswell, Chowan, Cleveland (except for the city of Kings Mountain), Craven, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Franklin, Gaston, Gates, Granville, Greene, Guilford, Halifax, Harnett, Hertford, Hoke, Jackson, Lee, Lenoir, Martin, Nash, Northampton, Onslow, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Person, Pitt, Robeson, Rockingham, Scotland, Union, Vance, Washington, Wayne, Wilson

The point being that they cannot just do whatever they like.

[bornskeptic]

25. Republicans control the legislature now, but it's not guaranteed to stay that way.

They took over in 2010 mostly on turnout. Democrats have a big edge in voter registration here, and most Democrats will vote party in state legislative races even if they vote for Romney and/or McCrory. I expect we'll have a Republican governor and a Democratic legislature, or a split legislature.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

29. I hope you're right.

Fingers crossed.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

9. grantcart....great work...

I have done research in the past, what your group has done is impressive..... kudos to all...

[1StrongBlackMan]

11. LOL ...

Now those of you that are betting that Gravis numbers in North Carolina are 'solid gold', you aren't drawing to an inside straight you are betting that aliens will land before January 1, 2013 and that bigfoot steps out speaking fluent Navajo.

[JackN415]

17. If Nate Silver stills consider "Gravy fraud" polling as legitimate...

but then Nate is still giving high marks to Gravis polling

he loses credibility with me.

Any scientist must know and take a stand on the source of information or data. He might be political to be inclusive, playing the role of poll statistical meta-analysis, treating all pollsters will equal weight.

But that is wrong at best and dishonest at worst.

It's his job to review the methodology, the data, the credibility of polling firm. Taking information without thorough investigation of the source is absolutely negligent.

Let's us consider an analogy: a medical researcher analyzes research results from other publications about certain thing, like whether red meat might cause colon cancer. The researcher cannot say that I will treat all publications on this subject with equal face value and hence my meta-analysis is this and this, etc.

It is the researcher's responsibility to determine the credibility and validity of the publication to be included in his/her meta-analysis. He/she cannot take a publication from a never-heard-of journal, from authors with dubious credential and say, I will treat this study the same as other.

Nate Silver is very wrong to include Gravy fraud poll firm.

[flamingdem]

18. I love this!

[BigDemVoter]

20. THANK YOU for posting this!

I had a bit of a sick feeling this morning, just thinking about the election, and you've calmed my nerves for the day.

[Coyotl]

22. You can't use five stars w/o official in the title

kidding

[grantcart]

28. lol

[mnhtnbb]

26. Payback for Tagg coming to NC and saying on the radio he wanted to take a swing at POTUS

Sweet Karma.

[supernova]

27. Proud of the voter turnout in my state right now

Thanks for the great numbers researcher, grantcart.

Let's keep it up NC!!

Go Blue again in 2012!!

[onecent]

30. OMG OMG OMG...This is WONDERFUL..I am almost crying....

OMG....I want it to be this way in EVERY STATE so they can't be sneaky and try to steal
the election.

THANK YOU for posting this.

[grantcart]

31. this is the real deal. everything up to now has been hot wind.

[Waiting For Everyman]

35. This is our defense against billionaires -- large numbers of "you people" voting!

Way to go North Carolina! Let's hope this catches on all over!

[ProSense]

36. Great information. More:

Kos: The state of the race in North Carolina

<...>

Interestingly, it was Obama who increased his ad spending in the state last week:

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/22/1148288/-The-state-of-the-race-in-North-Carolina

[blm]

38. Thanks, Pro.

.

[JoePhilly]

37. Voted in Wake County this morning ... took 30 minutes to get in.

And the line was longer when I left.

Wake County is usually blue. Hoping high turn out is good for us!!

[ksoze]

39. Obama pullling out of NC per CNN just now

Paul Begala on CNN - focusing on 6 states.

[grantcart]

42. pulling out ads I assume. When you have huge early voting the ads are no longer needed..

Obama has something like 75 offices in NC and they are not pulling out anything.

[ksoze]

43. No, they are saying they are assuming NC is lost

Don't shoot the messenger

[grantcart]

44. I found the link and you can believe it if you want but last week they doubled the ad buy per

Earlier Romney said that they were pulling out of NC and didn't. It was latter admitted to be a head fake.

Here is the excerpt

&feature=youtu.be

Perhaps they are trying to get Romney to look over NC but on the field Obama continues with a massive ground game in NC and is up about 70,000 votes

[grantcart]

45. I assume that it is payback, last week Romney lied about leaving NC

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/19/dncs_woodhouse_romney_pulling_out_of_nc_a_total_head_fake_race_remains_close.html

[LisaL]

47. While buying more advertising?

Yea, right.
How is it lost when turnout is high and democrats outnumber republicans?

[themaguffin]

40. That's awesome. I hope it continues. Would LOVE to see NC blue again!

[DemKittyNC]

41. I voted this afternoon for Obama!

Straight Democratic ticket and the polling place I voted at was packed! Most in line had pro-Obama stickers and pins they were wearing. It was great to see! I voted in a local public park, the line was out the door and I had to wait about an hour till I got to vote but I didn't mind at all. I got to talk to several people in line who were voting for Obama also. There was an older white couple in line about 5 people behind me and they were voting for Rmoney. They were getting dirty looks big time. Especially since pretty much everyone there was African-American other then me and them and a few other white/latino. I had a great time and the wait didn't seem that long at all. We were all talking about how terrible Rmoney/Lyin was and laughing about the things that have happened during this election year. All the while the older white couple down the line kept a sad little look on their face and looked scared to death... lol

[barbtries]

49. it sounds like you might have been at Chavis Park in Raleigh

that's where i'm poll monitoring! i'll be back there next Sat and Sunday and the next until the election.

[DemKittyNC]

50. I was at Barber Park in Greensboro

but I am happy to hear it might have been a similar situation there in Raleigh as well, that is great to hear!

[berni_mccoy]

46. Thank you SIR! K&R!

[D23MIURG23]

54. I just did the math, and...

If Obama wins Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina and New Mexico, he can loose Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado, and the final score is an Obama win, 272 - 266.

That isn't the map I would prefer to see, but it demonstrates how bad it is for Rmoney if he can't hold NC. Its a pretty important state for his electoral map, and it should be one of the easier ones for him to grab.

[amborin]

55. this is great! n/t