Respect Romney as a formidable foe.

[Skip Intro]

We can laugh at him, but he's been pretty steady for months in the GOP primary polls, just under being on top when he wasn't, while the others have been embraced and summarily discarded.

Romney's camp doesn't seen to strive to be number one in the polls, but to stay near the top. They'll win the big game in November, tho, by being content to focus on state by state battles, where whatever they do seems to work (except in SC).

He's going to win. Romney will be the repub nominee. It will be Romney vs Obama.

The only true question mark is who will Romney choose as a running mate. Imho, the election will rest upon that. Romney will make that choice with that knowledge. Romney's choice for VP will decide the election.

[Johnny Rico]

1. I'm guessing he'll pick Rubio.

[Skip Intro]

3. I'm convinced it'll be SC Gov Haley.

Not to be crass, but politics is broken down that way. What about the **** vote, you know?

I see a female candidate as a strong choice. I see a minority as a strong choice.

Gov. Haley, as despicable as she is, would be a strong draw away from Obama to Romney, probably very strong.

IMHO

[DonCoquixote]

9. agreed

As Haley would definitely fish for the PUMA votes, as would Palin.

[Skip Intro]

10. If PUMAS exist, I don't see them voting for Haley. nt

[rufus dog]

2. McCain/Palin got over 59 million votes, Dimson 60 million.

Based on those numbers I think Obama will need 63 million to stop the Mittster. Being a Mormon will hurt him, but in the states where Mitt will lose a substantial number of votes, Obama will have small chance of winning anyway.

[Mr.Turnip]

4. Seriously? You think after all the rookie mistakes he seems to make that he's strong?

He's having trouble with people like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and you think this is a strong candidate?

and VP choices rarely actually bring about large swings.

Romney's only chance is the Economy sinking again, he's just too weak a candidate otherwises.

[Dawson Leery]

5. The Obama team has done much research and polling on Romney.

The Obama campaign team understand the game.

Do not be taken aback should Romney take someone such as Jim DeMint as his running mate. The far right is going to demand something.

[MjolnirTime]

6. Nobody is voting based on the VP.

[Fla Dem]

19. I do believe that many people who would otherwise not vote for McCain

did so once Palin was on the ticket. I think the same dynamic could hold true for the Romney ticket if a VP pick is a favorite of the far right base.

[Thinkingabout]

20. As soon as Palin was added to the ticket

I would not consider McCain again. She turned out to be the flake I saw from the start. The repubs tried to out do the Dems by placing a female on their ticket and lost. I always liked McCain but after 8 miserable years of a terrible administration of repubs, we needed change.

[ellisonz]

7. I'll respect his money. n/t

[grantcart]

8. Remember when Obama's campaign left the limelight and went up to Idaho for the caucuses there?

No one could see why except that his margin was large enough that he took every delegate while the high profile wins in Ohio would ultimately net SOS Clinton only a one or two delegate advantage.

After Super Tuesday it was basically over with the Obama campaign running out the clock.

The President assembled one of the most brilliant technical campaign staff in American history. They have examined every single electoral vote. They will take the campaign deep into the red states and make Romney spend money on what was considered safe areas.

Just remember that these are the guys who out smarted the Clintons on campaign tactics and the Clintons were the best up until that moment.

versus

Romney is the guy who tries to make a campaign issue out of tree height, whose staff can't stage a simple speech, whose past includes multiple instances of contradictory high profile public endorsements of contradictory positions on the same issue, who represents a party that can't stand him, who hasn't put forth a single policy position on a serious issue, who can't make simple declatory sentences or speeches worth a damn, who doesn't even have the enthusiastic support of CEOs on Wall Street, who has no experience or credibility on foreign or military affairs.

If Romney gets the nomination he will soon have a whole shit load of bricks on his head, and it couldn't happen to a better target.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. +1

[DonCoquixote]

12. yes, BUT

Thanks to super pacs, romney does not need to sell himself. Indeed, the best way the pacs can approach it is to act like Mitt does not even exist, and go nergative all the way.

[DFW]

13. Agreed. That cannot be underestimated.

The Kochs will fund so many negative ads that by election day, 40% of the country will be thoroughly
convinced that Barack Obama was personally responsible for their sink clogging up over a weekend.

THAT is our danger, not Romney's fictitious version of competence or some blown-out-of-proportion
VP candidate. How long did it take Palin to go from unknown "exciting" asset to chances-killing liability?
Romney's team will not make THAT big a mistake, but no Republican politician with half a brain will want
to be second fiddle to a candidate with as much baggage as Romney. Ergo--they will most likely find themselves
one with less than half a brain, just like last time--just not one with quite as loose a cannon for a mouth.

[grantcart]

16. Obama and Plouffe are relentlessly competitive

They don't want to snack they want to 'eat their lunch', 'drink their milkshake, 'have their pie and then eat it too'.

They are young, fit and obsessed, just what the doctor ordered.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/11023261
http://www.democraticunderground.com/11023261#post1

[aaaaaa5a]

22. Outstanding. nt

[Cosmocat]

14. Mostly agree

Because Romney is the establishment pick, but is to detestable to the "base" the "liberal media" has been freed from being the she dog to the republican party and allowed to show the republican primary as the freakshow it is.

BUT, once Romney, presumably clears the nomination, and it is him v BO, the game changes. The Rs will get behind Romney in the united goal to take down BO, and the media will be cow towed to treat Romney in a manner that they are told to treat Rs - with deference, while putting the screws to BO.

At that point, it becomes the horse race, and Romney LOOKS the part, at the very least.

I think you overstate the VP pick a bit. He won't absolutely flub it like McCain did. He will pick a safer VP candidate who has more appeal the "base" and it will help him to shore things up a BIT.

I tend to agree that the BO campaign will once again be really well run (all that the media breathless spewed about Rove and company). I think as long as the ecomomy remains in a slug like recovery and there is no major incident like a domestic terror attack, the middle will break BO's way because he is the incumbent.

In these scenario, Romney's "things would have been better if they did our way" thing just has too little appeal against an incumbent who has a solid record and is pretty likeable.

And, the Rs lost BIG time in the first political salvo of the election cycle, fumbling the senseless "attack on religious freedom" and lighting up women voters. LOTS of time for things to shift back around, but that was a real bullet in their own foot.

If it were today, I think BO would be OK. It won't be the washout some seem to think, though.

[DCBob]

15. Romney is a very weak candidate but given the nature of electorate he can still win.

His best asset is that he looks and sounds Presidential. Once you get past that he is a disaster. But many low-information voters wont get past that since they dont follow politics. Most of their exposure will be seeing photos and headlines in the tabloids and magazines as they check-out in the grocery.

The key will be to reach those voters. I think the Obama campaign should create some glossy, colorful, simply worded one page adverts that highlight a specific easy to understand issue and mail them to every voter in the battle ground states.

I think Obama wins this thing fairly easily but we can never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. Never forget Bush 2004.

[morningfog]

17. He's been steady at 25-35%, even in the races he wins, he isn't breaking much

more than that. And his unfavorable numbers keep getting higher.

He will put up a fight with his superPAC ht squad but he will still lose.

[OmahaBlueDog]

18. You're probably right, but........

A) If Romney loses Michigan, I think all bets are off. At that point, my feeling is that the powers that be in the Republican Party won't back a candidate who can't win his "home state" (what exactly is Romney's "home state" is another interesting debate). If he loses Michigan, the GOP insiders are going to game what's left of the primary system to get a brokered convention. In Tampa, they can get a do-over. They can nominate Mike Huckabee or Chris Christie or Jeb Bush or Mitch Daniel or Sarah Palin. The Jeb Bush blast from a few days ago supports this theory, as do the recent appearance of articles touting that it's not too late for another candidate to jump in.

B) Romney is only formidable if he can learn to get out of his own way. His campaign reminds me of Bush One's '92 reelection campaign. Romney seems out of touch, and keeps making tone-deaf remarks like the one about his wife "driving a couple of Cadillacs."

C) Romney is well funded, and he comes off as a moderate. This helps him with independents, but hurts him with the right wing of his party. Add to that the LDS factor, which turns off Evangelical Protestants, and his flip/flops on abortion and healthcare, and you end up with a nominee that might appeal to moderate independents, but might not get people in his own party flocking to the polls to vote for him, or (more important) to organize for him.

D) In any event, I'm increasingly convinced that the Veep for any GOP nominee will be Marco Rubio. 1) They need Florida 2) They are gambling that he can skim a percentage (what % we don't know) of Latino votes across the board. 3) It throws a bone to the Tea Party.

[Thinkingabout]

21. We have a challenge, we have to have a large turnout on election day

We can not sit back and let the rights win. Too many years of downturns due to repubs. We also need some civility in Congress again. The TP is running this country down. Their real agenda is coming to light, extremes everywhere.