Who wins Michigan on Tuesday?

[Alexander]

[Mr.Turnip]

1. Not Ron Paul.

[Mojambo]

2. The Democratic Party. n/t

[grantcart]

3. Obama

Santorum will have more votes in the Republican primary.

I am guessing that the fact that Michigan doesn't have party affiliated primaries means that a lot of Democrats will show up and vote for Santorum.

All of the polls keep stating that Romney has a small lead AMONG LIKELLY REPUBLICAN VOTERS. If I lived in Michigan I would be getting every single person I ever met to the polls to vote for Santorum,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/michigan-primary-democratic-mischief/2012/02/15/gIQA2zQuHR_blog.html


A colleague called the Republican National Committee the other day and was told by a spokesman there that it was closed.

Then a longtime state GOP official said no, it ‘s “semi-closed.” That means it’s pretty much open.

Here’s how it works: voters walk into the polls and are asked to declare whether they want a Democratic ballot or a Republican ballot. They can pick either and then vote.

Now, under a new state rule, your choice will be record ed and public information — and could subject you to annoying robo-calls, vendor solicitations and such. Also, you’d have some explaining to do if you run for office in the future. But that’s about it.

Even if Romney eeks out a win it will by a Pyrrhic victory given how difficult it was for him to win and how much it cost him.

[hayrow1]

12. Vote Santorum.....However, remember, for Republicans, it is not who gets the most votes that...

wins elections, it is who counts the votes that makes that decision. I would bet that no matter what the real vote, the Michigan Repukes will announce Romney the winner with made-up numbers. Probably something like 50.1% Romney, 39.9% Rick the Dick, 9% Ron the Confederate, and 6% Newt the Adulturer. Again, remember, for Republicans science and math are simply Secular Humanist tricks.

[Bozita]

17. +1!

[SwampG8r]

4. is "win" an option?

even if they win they dont win much
santorum has enough to get to the convention and so does mitt
newt will start looking for a buyer for his delegates but all in all i see a brokered convention if mittens doesnt start pulling ahead in a major way
and i say mittens because he has been the "inevitable" gop candidate since 2008 just like a lot of folks in the past who did not get the nod
the only real "WINNER" is paul who continues to plod along building a small margin which may at some point be leveraged for positions on the party platform

[MarianJack]

6. Please don't make the mistake of thinking that ron paul is a secret liberal.

He is an old confederate loving racist. We don't need people like him.

PEACE!

[Mr.Turnip]

7. Ron Paul is just a Romney shrill.

[Kalidurga]

8. On the Republican side Santorum

I really don't know what to hope for. I never liked Rmoney, even before I heard about the dog on roof incident. What an ass. Anyway, then there is Santorum who thinks women should remain virgins not only until marriage but until they want children. Then there is Newt, good old newt named after a lizard how appropriate, at least I have always thought so. And then there is Ron Paul the guy that reminds me of the weird uncle no one wants to invite over for family functions but luckily he is kinda deaf so they just let him sit in a corner and rant to himself and when he starts nodding off will startle awake to shout something inappropriate.

[DCBob]

9. Romney appears to have the momentum now.

I suspect he wins by about 5-10 points.

[Cosmocat]

10. Yeah

I don't know about the margin, it probably is going to be a bit closer than that, but it seems he has it down to be able to come into a state where he is down to the anti-romney and run a boatload of negative ads and turn it around.

[DCBob]

13. Ron Paul's attacks on Santorum I think are having big impact.

Many GOPer voters will never vote for Paul but they do respect his opinion.

[Cosmocat]

23. He really is a shiiteheel

Paul that is.

He is not as personally despicable as most Rs, but he is not NEAR the saint people make him out to be.

His saddling up to Romney is bizarre.

[grantcart]

14. momentum among Republicans

Its an open primary

polling companies have no idea who is actually going to vote.


Guess what the UAW is going to be doing on Tuesday.

[DCBob]

15. Yes, I read about this.. its called "operation hilarity" I believe.

If its close then those votes could make a difference but I suspect its not going to be that close.

[aaaaaa5a]

21. Good call. nt

[KharmaTrain]

11. The Cables...

They've been feasting on this clown car demolition derby...fixated on it almost non-stop for the past year and intent on building up and taking down whichever flavor of the month clown appears to be the "frontrunner". The ugly truth is the rushpublican party is threadbare with any real credible candidate but with the outlandish personalities the corporate media has had a field day playing with the egos and the crazy. Who else pushed for 20 or more "debates" that were nothing more than red meat feeding frenzies in an attempt to grab an audience. They've jumped on every gaffe, every third rail issue and turned the surreal into the sublime.

From this side of the sandbox I've found the coverage to be very entertaining...in a reality show kinda way. I bit...watched some of the debates in the hopes of seeing one or several of the "candidates" do something stupid or for the latest audience "outrage". It was all amusing and freightening at the same time...and hopefully this "aura" has rubbed off on others as the longer this circus rolls on the more unapetizing the rushpublicans become to the "mainstream" voter.

[Jon Ace]

16. Romney by 2 points

It'd be funnier if Newt won though.

[Arkana]

18. The real answer? Obama.

The comedy answer? Mittens in a squeaker, but ultimately it won't matter. Delegation apportionment will be split. Still, if he wins both Arizona and Michigan, we might not have to hear from Little Ricky the Ayatollah for long.

[DesertRat]

19. I'm hoping for an upset

but it will probably be Romney.

[aaaaaa5a]

20. Mitt Romney wins Michigan

The trend lines are all moving in his direction. The only thing that could prevent a Romney win is if the democrats in Michigan are smart enough to run an "operation chaos" to sway the numbers. I wish we were more organized. An overwhelming turnout for Santorum from the left, would really put the GOP in serious trouble.


My prediction for Tuesday

Michigan-Romney by 5

Arizona-Romney by 15



Romney will win Arizona because more than half of the electorate has already voted. And they voted before the Santorum bump. (I think the actually vote on Tuesday in Arizona will be very close, with Romney wining by maybe 2 or 3 points.)

The sad part is that Santorum EVEN COMING CLOSE in Michigan should be viewed as a tremendous accomplishment. He should be able to claim a symbolic victory just for making Michigan competitive (plus he will actually get more delegates out of the state than Romney). However because he had a lead here just a week ago, it will allow Romney to claim a big win that is largely undeserved, just for winning your home state against lack luster competition.

The storyline for Tuesday night will be off. It should be Romney is very weak for having tremendous advantages (money, Ron Paul, home state, etc.) and barely winning. Santorum should be the story. But I fear they will cast Romney as some kind of "comeback kid." And Santorum will be cast as the big loser, which given his task and resources in the state is unfair.

[morningfog]

22. Neither Paul no Gingrich will reach the 15% threshold to hold any delegates

from Michigan through the national convention. The way the rules are, a candidate must get 15% to get any in MI. So, the remaining will go to Romoney or Santorum.

It could go either way. It is too close to call, as far as I can tell. I would be happy with either losing.