Monmouth poll shows Romney up 3 points

[ProSense]

Poll: Romney Leads By 3 Nationally

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by three points in the latest poll from Monmouth University released Monday, 48 percent to 45 percent. Romney led by one point in the last Monmouth poll conducted after the first presidential debate.

The poll surveyed 1,402 likely voters between Oct. 18 - 21 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-romney-leads-by-3-nationally

Not only is the poll showing only a 4 point lead among women for the President, but it also shows only a 6-point lead among Hispanics.

The President gets 82 percent of the black vote, and 9 percent are undecided. Mitt's favorability is 49 percent, Obama's is 45 percent. Mitt is also leading in early voting.

About 12% of the poll’s likely voter sample reports they have already cast their presidential ballot in early voting. Among this group, Romney got 44% of the vote to 41% for Obama – an edge which is within the margin of error for this sub-group.

More weirdness, evidently Mitt won the second debate:

More than half of likely voters (56%) report watching the entire second debate and another 24% watched part of it, which is slightly less than the number of likely voters who reported watching the first debate. Seven percent of likely voters report that the debate caused them to have a change of heart about which candidate they would support – compared to 9% after the first debate. Among this group, 57% now declare themselves for Romney to 32% for Obama. After the first debate, those who changed their mind went for Romney by a larger 73% to 18% margin.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/0e2e970e-a544-4f4d-8659-6233705b8ae7.pdf


New poll of Latinos:

Latino voters highly engaged in presidential election, support for Obama rises
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021599223

[JustAnotherGen]

1. So basically

President Obama is going to lose and even more to the 'basic point' - we have idiots in America who believe that Romney said ANYTHING of ANY value in last week's debate? Interesting . . .

[gabeana]

3. your kidding right or being sarcastic

this poll is flawed
the internals show that Obama basicall tied with women and hispanics, yeah right

[JustAnotherGen]

11. You got it

And I'm really beginning to wonder who is behind some of these polls. . . Like - do they have an agenda they aren't sharing with us? Because all I'm REALLY believing right now are polls showing women in the bag for Obama, and Latino/Hispanic to boot!

So they keep throwing up these 'wow' - or rather 'big wow' poll but at the end of the day the Pollster's headlines make absolutely no sense.

[JustAnotherGen]

13. P.S.

Wasn't kidding or being sarcastic about a certain segment of our population who believe that Romney said anything of any value in last week's debate.

[gabeana]

15. Yup can't disagree with that

[teabaggersarestupid]

21. Where does it say

that Obama is practically tied with Hispanics? I don't think the poll says that.

What I will say is odd is that the poll claims Romney is leading in early voting. How the hell is that possible? All polls clearly show Obama to have a giant lead in early voting.

[gabeana]

24. if the poll says Obama

ahead with hispanics by only 6 but the others say he is ahead by anywhere from 40 and 60, the 6 points is pretty close to a tie which I don't agree with at all

[teabaggersarestupid]

30. Yeah I know

I meant I didn't see where it says he's only up by 6 among Hispanics.

[ProSense]

6. No, basically, this is

a stupid poll. Nine percent of blacks aren't undecided, and Mitt is losing the Hispanic vote by more than 30 points according to most national polls.

[JustAnotherGen]

12. I know

See my post above.

I'm black woman (of bi-racial ethnic background) - I'm not undecided. I honestly don't have a single friend in my circle that is undecided about this election.


These polls - point blank? I'm not trusting/paying attention anymore. I'll wait for the poll results on November 7th.

[TroyD]

26. More like 45-50 points

According to 2 Latino polls out today.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

2. 6 point hispanic lead.

= These fuckers (the polling firm, not the aforementioned demographic!) aren't even trying, are they?

[Lex]

4. A 6 point lead by Hispanic folks? Good luck with that. nt

[Maximumnegro]

5. Only SIX POINT LEAD for Hispanics?

From 70-30 to 6pts?!!!!

Somebody's got a bridge to sell. Perfect for jumping off of, too, handwringers!

[Maximumnegro]

7. Uh-oh, looky here

Hispanic voters continue to say they prefer President Obama by wide margins over Republican nominee Mitt Romney amid signs that the race is tightening among the broader electorate, according to new data in a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll.

Obama leads Romney 70 percent to 25 percent among likely Latino voters (and 69 percent to 23 percent among registered voters).

Monmouth must be breathing in the fumes from Elizabeth.

[flamingdem]

8. The poll goes like this:

Hola este es Monmouth Poll con unas preguntas para usted. Es usted Republicano?

If they answer No Soy Democrata Monmouth hangs up!

[RandySF]

9. This poll is only good for toilet paper.

There's no way Obama is only leading by 6 among Latinos.

[FBaggins]

10. Have you been able to look at the new Battleground/GWU results?

I can't get the link to open.

On edit - It was just a monster file. See page 86. It looks like they're getting substantially the same results.

Will vote to re-elect / Will consider someone else / Will vote to replace / Unsure/refused
47% / 6% / 40% / 7%

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct22_weightedtables.html

2nd edit - it's 53-44 in the horserace.

[Third Doctor]

14. Even though I think this poll is a outlier

I'm more concerned with the battleground state polls.

[RosedaleGuy]

16. If Romney Was Such a Great Governor Why isn't He Winning Mass?

Why isn't Massachusetts for Romney? They know him best. They lived under his administration. He is supposedly some economic wiz. The people of Massachusetts have been governed by both Obama and Romney. They are choosing Obama.

Why doesn't Obama or the DNC bring this up? Romney cannot carry his own state. It's a simple and clear effective argument. Please pass this on to the DNC.

[TroyD]

27. Biden mentioned it in his debate

And Obama made an oblique reference to it as well.

I'm not sure if it would make a big difference though. Pointing out that Mitt is trailing in all of his 'home states' would probably be considered petty by the media. They would say it is a low blow to point out that Mitt is trailing in Massachusetts, Michigan, California and probably New Hampshire too.

[catbyte]

17. Obama has a 6 point lead amongst Hispanics?

[pointsoflight]

18. Hahaha, some obvious problems with this poll!

Tiny lead for Obama among women and Hispanics? C'mon.

[Hutzpa]

19. I read that as Mormon poll. nt

[okieinpain]

22. I just find it interesting that all of these polls show this

tight race after the repugs complained that it was a conspiracy against romney, then wham overnight romney has the lead. notice how no one is complaining about the polls any more.

[LiberalFighter]

23. I thought Romney was leading by 100%

in producing shit.

[Jack Sprat]

25. Arondack U. poll has Obama up 17%

[ProudProgressiveNow]

28. God these pollls are all over.

Flawed samples!

[MFM008]

29. keep your eye on the electoral college.

period.