Winning Arizona?

[SleeplessinSoCal]

Overall bad polling day for Obama, but Romney leads by only 1.7 in Arizona. ???

Strange.

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

[MadBadger]

1. Pollster has it Romney + 9

It was one poll that had Obama +2. Can you say outlier?

[AverageJoe90]

7. I would think so, too, BUT......

Most pollsters, it seems, rarely, if ever, include Hispanic voters, especially those who tend to speak more Spanish, in their totals. This happened in Nevada in both '08 and 2010, btw: That was just one of only two states that Nate Silver didn't correctly predict in '08 and Harry Reid surprised everyone when he won just two years later, even though Sharron Angle was the supposed favorite.

It may not happen, but it is significantly more plausible than some may think......

[Maximumnegro]

2. How can it be a bad polling day for Obama

with NH at +9 (UNH) or whatever and OH +5 (CBS), IBD/TIPP from late yesterday, etc. etc.

I mean, WTF?

[JiminyJominy]

3. Ya

I dont know where OP got that its been a bad polling day for O.

[Ztolkins]

4. Yea, explain yo' self mofo.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

5. I based it on Obama's overall tracking on TPM

He's been above 256 for a very long time. He's at 233 in this tracking poll

I don't want to be living and dying hourly with these polling numbers. But I thought it amazing how Obama is pulling even in Arizona right now.

[yellowcanine]

10. One tracking poll does not make an "overall bad polling day"

Or put Obama even in Arizona. I agree that Arizona may be in play on election night because of the Latino vote but he is not even at the moment, which should tell you something about this tracking poll in general. That poll also had PA as a tossup state, which just is not so. You say you don't want to be "living or dying hourly with these polling numbers" but that is just what you are doing when you make grand pronouncements based on one tracking poll.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

13. I wish I could quit them. :( Nate Silver 20 Minutes ago

"Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

If you ran RCP state poll averages through the 538 simulation model, it would come out in the same range (65-70% Obama EC win)"

They're talking about polls now on Current with Talking Liberally/TYTs.

[treestar]

12. Where are the breathless M$M reports about Obama closing the gap in AZ?

[dhpgetsit]

8. I don't put too much stock in the polls, but

Arizona has a lot of women, Hispanics and retired people. And if retired people love their Medicare and don't want Ryan getting his grubby little Mitts on it, I think it could be very close.

[JiminyJominy]

9. The Medicare

argument just is not picking up traction with elderly people it seems.

so i'm not sure you can include the elderly in your reason AZ might go Blue.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

11. Being a senior citizen dependent on Medicare makes one extra vulnerable.

I don't know how you convince people who are daily set upon by scam artists, that their Medicare costs could go up seriously in two years. They must be punch drunk because some believe what the money is telling them. "you're set. you're safe". It's the next generation that has to worry.

[JiminyJominy]

14. Dont Get Me Wrong..

it might matter to us, but its just not gaining that much traction with the elderly voters right now.

just the same as Libya is not gaining traction with other voters. (as much as the GOP is trying to make it gain traction)

[TroyD]

15. Latino Decisions says Arizona could be a surprise this year

They speculate that if there is a high Latino turnout at greater numbers for Obama than in 2008, then he could have a shot at winning the state.

I've been following the Arizona numbers closely for the past month because of the Senate race and from what I can tell it's still more likely that Carmona will win than Obama, but we'll see.

Nate Silver still shows Carmona as the underdog to Flake, but I'm hoping he can win.