IPSOS PROJECTS SWING STATES FOR OBAMA

[Maximumnegro]

Yeah. That's right. You heard me.

Obama still holds a substantial advantage in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a relatively comfortable electoral college victory.

More Here

This is a BFD people. Of course the worry warts and handwringers looking at mangled dead bodies will just see the tied numbers. Sorry but it's 2 weeks before the election, it's time for you to suck it up and put on a smile and GOTV. Sad as it may sound Obama may actually win and win by more than you are expecting. Bad news I know. Frankly I think they are subtly stating what many of us who aren't choking on Maalox think is really the case on the ground.

Of course this is just one poll, but the the fact they went out on a limb to drop that projection is no small matter IMO. Ipsos is a solid pollster with as good a rep as the other majors. If you're willing to soil Depends over PPP, you should be willing to run commando over this.

This is great news.

[AJH032]

1. I read this earlier today...

but I can't find any recent state polls published by Ipsos.

[Maximumnegro]

2. Doesn't matter. What would you do if you saw them?

Just obsess over them. The point is what they have seen makes them confident enough to put it in print.

This ain't Gravis doing blow and whiteout over poll numbers.

[TroyD]

4. How do they come to their projections?

Usually a pollster would include a paragraph explaining how they come to those conclusions (eg. the way Nate Silver does).

I can understand Obama winning Ohio, because he has a good shot there, and Virginia still seems possible too, but I'm curious as to where their Florida projection for Obama comes from since the majority of polls have him behind there.

[Maximumnegro]

5. You are not a pollster or privy to info

any more than Nate. FL is not plausible to you because you have made the subjective decision it is not plausible, not because the available data indicates otherwise. If you need to know so badly why don't you ask them?

[TroyD]

12. I didn't say it wasn't plausible

I said it didn't look as likely as the other states.

Ipsos can't just publish information making projections without even mentioning the numbers they used to get to those conclusions.

Nate Silver has Florida in Romney's column right now, and while that could certainly be incorrect, Ipsos needs to explain to their readers why their projections are different.

[unc70]

9. Maybe same place showing FL Latinos Obama 70-20

You never seem happy with any positive news for Dems. I don't know why you would spent so much time here to be depressed and skeptical!

[TroyD]

11. That is nonsense

I respond to positive news and post a lot of it, but you're darn right I'm skeptical about polls or information that doesn't provide supporting data, and I can promise you the Obama campaign is too. If you work on campaigns, you would know you need to balance out between being positive and being cautious.

[unc70]

15. You are skeptical even with supporting data

I am skeptical, an informed skeptic. Both by education and by experience doing polling, survey, and other data collection and analyses. Not to mention 50+ years working in campaigns. I know when and what to question, what looks valid, internally consistent, robust, and reliable.

I have worked in campaigns since 1960 (Kennedy and Terry Sanford), a lot since 1968. The Obama campaign, at least in the battleground states, is paying little notice to any of these public polls. They pretty much know about each individual eligible to vote person, in detail. That is why the GOTV is likely to really surprise Republicans, pundits, and many skeptics here.

[courseofhistory]

3. Agree and we still should GOTV! n/t

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

6. Interesting

Ohio, based on early voting, I would understand if they see a trend.

Do Florida and Virginia vote early?

[budkin]

8. I know VA does not

[budkin]

7. Ohio I can see... but FL and VA?

Seems a stretch

[Maximumnegro]

10. Misses the point.

[struggle4progress]

14. You Can Get It If You Really Want