Predictwise now gives Sanders 12% chance of winning Dem nomination

[thesquanderer]

Of course he's still the underdog, but this is the highest he's been since early Feb (and way up from mid March when so many here were calling for him to drop out). If he does well in Wisconsin, maybe we see another uptick on the horizon...

[DavidDvorkin]

1. At this rate, he could reach 25% by the time of the convention

But that's probably a generous estimate.

[thesquanderer]

2. Right now, a 1-in-4 chance at the convention sounds doesn't sound too bad.

If neither arrives at the convention with enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination, odds will still favor Hillary because of the leanings of the super delegates. But it still could give Sanders a shot, even if he doesn't get 2,383 before then, which is a steep hill to climb.

[silvershadow]

3. And, by "Predictwise", you mean "some guy". nt

[Kalidurga]

4. Predictwise = Gamblers

Gamblers = people who go broke playing the odds that are in favor of the house

[thesquanderer]

6. Except predictwise represents the house. (n/t)

[thesquanderer]

5. One guy, but based on aggregation of data from multiple sources.

Paul Krugman thinks enough of predictwise to reference it in his column.

Based on your icon, I guess you feel the figure is too low, but honestly, I'm actually encouraged. 12% is a real chance, and we still have months to go.