INTRADE getting worse for Obama

[sento100]

Obama is now only at 57.7 percent and Romney has gained all the way to 42 percent. What happened?

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

[JustAnotherGen]

1. Ask them

[TeamPooka]

72. no need. The term is "sucker bets" that's why.

[Mass]

2. Thank you for your concern

[nebenaube]

3. Romney is buying... n/t

[freshwest]

13. Yes, just like he bought 100k twitter followers... That's why I don't go for these things. It's the

Polling version of Citizens United, where dollars represent votes. Whereas in the real world, votes represent people.

This is how the Koch brothers are skewing social media to 'manufacture consent' for their corporatism. When you meet people face to face and discuss issues with them, they don't want this junk.

[Baitball Blogger]

28. If I had to guess, I would say the Republicans realized we're on to them

with the other outliers, so they decided to rig this one with money.

I mean, do I have intrade right? You pay to swing the poll?

[freshwest]

39. I asked someone last night about how it's done, and it's by money. Like gambling, it seems.

I am ready to be corrected, but that is what I got when someone answered me when I wanted to know how it worked last night during the debate.

[leftynyc]

48. No different than betting on the world series

The more money people put on a side, the less the odds are. mitt's buddies are putting up money to make it look like it's closing. It's simply gambling.

[amborin]

73. Intrade is very susceptible to manipulation:

"Intrade is a market, and with deep enough pockets someone could manipulate that market. Given the money that's been flowing in this campaign, it's not a huge stretch to imagine someone could be buying up Romney shares just to drive the narrative in comments like yours above. It would be as effective as advertising dollars, I bet. Besides, if it works out, you get your money back and more! With that thinking, Nate's "real money" factor does't really apply.

Bookies, however, are harder to manipulate. For them, this is all very real money. If you check the odds at http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidentia... you will see that they currently give Obama decimal odds of about 1.4, which by my math is pretty close to 70%. "

someone's post on nate silver's blog

[HERVEPA]

30. Well, if you believe Romney's buying Romney here, that gives you better odds.

A reason to go for it.

[liberalmuse]

4. That's still pretty damn good.

Considering there are some "iffy" polls out there right now that have been added to the usual polling fray.

[sento100]

16. sigh

Yeah but it was better when Obama was at 70 percent.

[still_one]

5. Forget the bullshit, just get out the vote

[Scurrilous]

25. ...

[Jackpine Radical]

6. Must be the way Romney smashed him in the debate last night.

Your concern is noted.

[fleur-de-lisa]

24. LOL! eom

[cthulu2016]

7. Before I even clicked this thread I thought "11 posts"

[MountainMazza]

8. You do understand....that this is easily manipulated with money....right?

[DemKittyNC]

9. Oh Noos!!!

Everyone run and jump off the cliff!!!

[darkangel218]

15. lol!! n/t

[MjolnirTime]

10. nice try, troll. Did you see Romney get his ass kicked last night??

[RomneyLies]

11. Shhhhhh, here's a secret about Intrade

It can be gamed by anybody with money.

Now seriously, with tens of millions of dollars wrapped up in this election, would you put it past Sheldon Adelson to game the Intrade market with money?

That's why I've never put any stock into how a candidate does on Intrade.

[Old and In the Way]

23. At the end of the day, it's an easy way to buy a position

and make people believe that investors are changing their mind. A few of Mitt's best friends could go long on Mitt, fully accepting the risk their bets are lost and game the market...there's more value in changing the perception than worrying about the potential loss of their investment - they've got plenty of money to burn anyways.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

[Lint Head]

14. Obama will win. Period. The only asshats that care about Intrade odds are rich pricks.

[HERVEPA]

31. Wrong! I'm not rich, but I have a considerable amount bet on Obama at these odds.

Not a very good generalization on your part.

[2pooped2pop]

17. couple of things

How big is intrade? Like how much money would it take to buy enough "shares" to move the dial? I think big money could do it very easily. It would be like the way the fuck with the polls. It makes people think Rmoney is winning and many people are so shallow that being on the winning team would get their vote.

Second, most in US can't invest in Intrade. It takes several weeks to get it all set up since they do not take US credit cards. So how many people in the US are actually betting there, I wonder.

Some big money Intraders would also probably purposely make the Obama percentage go down, then sweep in and buy it back up right before he wins.

or everyone knows it is highly likely that the fix is in, so to speak.

those are a few of the things that come immediately to mind.

[HERVEPA]

32. You can wire money from your bank. takes a day to get there.

[skeewee08]

18. 11 is my favorite #....just saying....n/t

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

19. Desperation has a distinct odor ...

Try taking a shower before posting your next bombshell.

[Bok_Tukalo]

20. About the same as Intrade for Ohio

<OPE>

[Sunlei]

21. it's the cheapest republican scam push-poll left

[GitRDun]

22. Stop looking at that stuff

Watch the early voting totals in swing states...those results are real. In-trade is a fun game for political junkies. It does no good to even pay attention to national polls, intrade, etc.

1). Early voting is real..

2). Where candidates are spending add $$$ is real.

3). Romney bringing up being for the auto bailout in a FOREIGN POLICY debate is real; hello Ohio!

Let that data give you clues as to what is really going on.

Obama is advertising in NC and the MSM is saying Romney has it sewn up. Maybe the Obama campaign is watching the early voting, too.

I am not...concerned....

[Lakerstan]

26. Here is your answer:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/

snip:

On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney had surged to 48 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, perhaps, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Neither. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 pushing Romney’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted about six minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are now back at around 41 percent

[crazylikafox]

41. Maybe that trader was sento100

[Jennicut]

42. $17,800?!

Must be nice to throw around bets with that money.

[leftynyc]

49. Someone like Adelson

has that kind of change under his sofa cushions.

[speedoo]

45. Thanks.

Excellent info.

[RomneyLies]

56. I wonder if whoever spent that $17.8K hired people

to go around pumping up how Obama dropped on Intrade?

Just askin...

[obamanut2012]

64. Thanks for this -- I was coming here to start an OP asking about the drop

It didn't freak me out, but it confused the hell out of me.

It makes sense why Obama has been falling from 70% the last month, even as Silver and swing states polls have him winning.

[craigmatic]

27. We're still winning through. And as long as i've been watching that site I've never seen Obama over

62 which was just after the first debate. Obama will go back up.

[kelly1mm]

35. The President was over 62 from September 13th - October 15th, over a month. nt

[craigmatic]

61. Well last night he was agt 61 so the change isn't that big

[kelly1mm]

62. On September 27th the President was at 78+. He is now at 57. That is a 21 point drop in a month.

If the President was at 61 last night and he is now at 57 that is 4 points in one day.

[obamanut2012]

69. .......

[obamanut2012]

65. He'd been at about 70 for a couple weeks

Right before the first debate, and was up about 67-68 last week for a couple days.

[TexasCPA]

29. Who cares about Intrade

These are the same morons that purchased stock in Internet companies and watched their money disappear.

[HERVEPA]

34. Silly generalization

I own no individual stocks, but have money on Obama at Intrade.
When the payoff for Obama is significantly better than Nate's prediction, it's a good bet.

[Arkana]

33. Who cares?

Intrade isn't worth squat as a predictor of anything. It can be manipulated more easily than most polls just by shorting one candidate or buying a shitload of shares in another.

[HERVEPA]

36. True. Not good as a predictor. Can be a good bet though if they are gaming it.

[OldDem2012]

37. "What happened"? It's amazingly simple! You posted on the wrong board! nt.

[War Horse]

44. Pretty much sums it up :) n/t

[windman]

38. Democrats Should stop whining and vote for the man who will look after their interest.

It will be so stupid for any true democrat or independent to vote for Romney or sit this election out. Remember Bush years?!?

[wisteria]

40. Maybe they think people are stupid enough to believe Romney,

especially when he promises them all "good, high Paying jobs" and more money in their paychecks. Some of those great jobs Romney has created in the past include all those part-time jobs at Staples and Macy's.

[scheming daemons]

43. incredible buying opportunity

[budkin]

46. Romney is a cool, calm, strong leader and Obama is an angry black man

</sarcasm>

[leftynyc]

47. Mitt, Sheldon Adelson, all the superpacs

Do I really need to go on? You aren't under the impression that intrade is anything scientific, are you?

[grasswire]

50. do you prefer pepperoni? or sausage? nt

[msanthrope]

55. Guess which juror I was?

At Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:52 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

do you prefer pepperoni? or sausage? nt
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=168954

REASON FOR ALERT:

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate. (See <a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=aboutus#communitystandards" target="_blank">Community Standards</a>.)

ALERTER'S COMMENTS:

Rude and uncalled for. Rude comments are against the CS rules.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Oct 23, 2012, 12:58 PM, and the Jury voted 2-4 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT and said: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT and said: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: Poster is an obvious concern troll and the poster gently pointed that out without any personal attack whatsoever.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: The problem I have--is that I truly think that this poster is a plant! It is obvious if you look at their posts! They've been sent here to demoralize Democrats. So, I cannot disagree with grasswire. Sorry!
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: Grasswire forgot my favorite topping--the tears of our enemies. Salty, bitter....ummmm!!!!

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.


Cannot reply to automated messages

[obamanut2012]

68. I hope #6

[msanthrope]

74. You are very wise. nt

[grasswire]

77. huh??????????????

My post was alerted??

I see similar comments to mine all the time!

[obnoxiousdrunk]

51. I hope this cheers you

up.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251168921

[Tx4obama]

52. Welcome to DU. Always good to see more Democrats joining the website :)

[Tx4obama]

53. at 10am, one person bought $18,000 worth of Romney shares

See comment #5 here: http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021616206#post5

[msanthrope]

54. Your concern is noted. Please feel free to share more of your concerns, and enjoy your stay. nt

[TroyD]

57. Romney has come on VERY strong since the first debate

And they are going all out to win this thing.

That's why you never underestimate Republicans.

[grantcart]

58. There should be a rule that you can't falll apart with tears until post 100

[Tx4obama]

66. How about posters with over 9,000 posts? See below

Pretty much the same question posted here by someone that is NOT a newbie: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021616206

It is a valid question.

There are no stupid questions

[grantcart]

71. Its just the proportionality that's stupid.

So many brand new low count folks so deeply concerned.

I don't mind them asking the question in the thread but beating the drum of despair when you only have a dozen posts is pretty obvious.

Demwing asked a perfectly reasonable question and it wasn't dripping in despair.

[BlueInPhilly]

59. I already posted last night during the debate: NO INTRADE PLEASE!!!

The site is like eBay. It is not a regulated market, it is purely driven by money. If the circumstances were normalized in terms of money to spend, sure, Intrade will abide with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. However, the market is not so efficient anymore: the 2008 crash proved it, and now, the money discrepancy between the candidates' major supporters.

So please, let me ask again:

PLEASE DO NOT POST ANY INTRADE #s ANYMORE!

Thank you.

[aletier_v]

60. I mentioned this last night. Intrade is probably small enough

that it could be manipulated by people like Romney or his supporters.

[iloveObama12]

63. Never Underestimate Karl "The Truth" Rove

[smorkingapple]

67. They're pumping money into it to help sell the narrative of Romney surging

Buy Obama now if you think it's bullshit. I may toss a grand or two myself in there.

[Jersey Devil]

70. Odds making is sooo reliable - Solidly picked the Patriots over the Giants in the Super Bowl - twice

It's because they are experts. Ask Tom Brady - oh, wait.

[and-justice-for-all]

75. 538.com

[Ter]

76. It's even worse now

54.9 to 44.7.