MSNBC Just explained the "national poll"

[morrissey fan]

The President is leading North, East and West. He is down 32 or so in the deep South(as expected). The only state he is even playing for in the South is Florida.

So, the national polls include Southern voters which weigh down any survey..

So, NO MORE NEGATIVITY!

[txdemsftw]

1. Can't believe MSNBC

decided to really 'explain' anything!

But, I'm glad they finally did something worthwhile.

[WI_DEM]

2. He's also playing for VA & NC

[hrmjustin]

3. They are oversampling the south.

They are also forgetting that Obama will get a large African-American vote out of the south. Leading by 32% I think not in the end.

[The_Counsel]

5. Not to Mention...

...the African-American vote could well gain Obama a surprise victory in Georgia, for example. If he wins big enough in Fulton and DeKalb counties, the rest of them may not matter.

And is MSNBC really pushing the spin that the President's not even trying for North Carolina and Virginia? Seriously? As much as the campaign has been pushing folks to vote early in those states?

There's going to be a few surprises on 11/6--and NONE of them will be a Romney victory...

[DarthDem]

6. No, They're Not Pushing That

No claim of giving up in VA or FL at all. Just some honest-to-Jeebus reporting for a change that basically debunks Gallup.

[wilt the stilt]

7. no chance

I live in GA and there is no chance.

[The_Counsel]

15. I Would Tend to Agree, Having Lived in That Area at One Point...

...however most polls have Romney no more than 10 points ahead. Usually the GOP candidate is ahead at least 20-25 points by now.

Could be a moot point by 11/6, though...

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

12. the greatest gop fear is so many state turning purple then blue . n\t

[AlbertCat]

16. pushing the spin that the President's not even trying for North Carolina

Exibit A:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021614901

"Axelrod: ‘We’ve Doubled Down’ In North Carolina"

[morrissey fan]

4. C'mon

Let's stay positive but not be like the idiots on the right and doubt EVERY poll not in our favor. The math makes sense!

[mzmolly]

8. Which national poll?

Thanks.

[John2]

9. Look at the Polls they are using

Democrats in North Carolina early voting has a 21 percent lead. The Polls are not matching first hand evidence on the ground. The only thing they are going by are Polls the Democrats have a problem with as sources. Gallup is one. Rasmussen is another. Every Poll, with the exception of Grove that has come out on North Carolina has all been Republican. Those are the Polls, the media has relied on. They gave a negative response to the last Poll in North Carolina ( Grove) showing Obama with a three point lead.

They gave more credence to Rasmussen, American Research and Gravis Marketing. The last PPP Poll had Romney ahead 49-48. That PPP Poll also gave Romney 11 percent of the African American vote. These were likely voters. This is what the media is going by even though there has been complaints about these Polls. Complaints have even came from the Obama campaign regarding Gallup and the latest Pew Poll.

The Huffington Post also called the Romney campaign when media sources claimed Romney was leaving North Carolina because Obama was conceding it. Romney campaign staffers said they weren't leaving. Yet other media continued to publicly claim Romney had pulled out of North Carolina. Then you have people like Paul Begala echoing Obama is not spending money in North Carolina. He says off the cuff, that he wasn't suppose to say this but he says it to CNN. The you got people in the Obama campaign publicly denying it. The only fact is, Romney is behind in North Carolina according to real votes ( early votes) and the margin isn't small. So firsthand reports on the ground don't back up the media claims or their pundits.

[Alekei_Firebird]

10. Is Obama really down -32 in the South?

I'm sure race has NOTHING to do with it. Honest!

[sevenseas]

11. I am so white I could haunt a house,

and I live in Georgia, and I am voting for Obama. Hooray, Obama!

[demilib]

25. It would be so nice if Obama could win Georgia.

But even I'm not that big of an optimist.

[powergirl]

13. I SAW THAT!!

And this needs to be mentioned by the Obama campaign. Romney can win 90% of Texas (my state, btw) and it won't mean Jack Squat.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

14. It's like when they did national polls with Bush....

All over the country he was in the 30% range but in Utah he was at 70%.

Is it any wonder the GOP Neocons ran to the Mormons for support?

[april]

17. I just voted today No Lines in CO

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

18. Geez, it only took them like a week

Is it any wonder why no one watches TV news anymore?

[flpoljunkie]

19. Down 22 in the South.

[Indykatie]

20. DU Members Have Been Pointing this Out Forever with Gallup Especially

What took them so damn long to look at the damn cross tabs and see that PBO was only losing in the South which is not critical or even essential to his reelection. Since we elect based on EV and not popular vote no one should based their outlook primarily on the national polls unless they are simply trying to set a "close race" narrative which is probably the plan. I would hope that MSNBC was better though in this regard.

[broadcaster75201]

21. Yep. Daily KOS made this point several days ago

Obama is ahead about 5 - 7 pts in the other regions.

[ffr]

22. Let's encourage any means to get Obama supporters to the polls

I'd rather not have this election decided by the undecided. They scare me.

[jalAbi]

23. That's the "beauty"

of the Electoral College!

[redstatebluegirl]

24. I live in a red state, Oklahoma but we don't matter thank goodness!

The Southern states that go to the Republicans are filled with people who need government assistance to survive. Every time there is a tornado, a wild fire, a flood you find that many people cannot afford or choose not to purchase insurance and wait for the government to bail them out. Go figure....

[John2]

26. The last Polls in North Carolina

I'll stress this again, you got some people running bad Polls out there and probably making money. So here are the last Polls in North Carolina:

Grove ( a Democratic Pollster) out of Denver Colorado Obama 47-44 600 sample. This Poll was taken during the first days of early voting. It had African Americans going for Obama with 92-7 percent.

Rasmussen ( a Republican Pollster) out of New Jersey. He had a 500 sample poll with Romney leading 52-46. He just did a Poll the week before showing Romney ahead by 3 points. This Pollster has been in North Carolina as much as PPP. All his Polls has been favorable to Romney.

PPP has been in North Carolina the most of any Pollster. They have done 26-27 Polls in North Carolina which were all tossups. It was even between the President and Romney for 26 Polls. Neither ever was up more than three points except once and that was Obama. PPP is suppose to be a Democratic Pollster. One caveat, their registered voter models always favored Obama. PPP also had 11 percent of the African American vote going to Romney in their last Poll which showed Romney up 49-47. Romney is not going to get 11 percent of the Black vote.

Then there is this UNC High Point Poll which was split in two weeks. This is just a bad Poll period. The first sample showed Obama up by 9, 49-40. The sample was 291 voters. The second sample was 312 voters giving Romney a 49-43 lead. The moe for both samples was close to 6.

Then you have Mr Kaplan with his first Poll ever in the swing State of North Carolina. He supposedly sampled 1300 or more North Carolinians by phone survey. Kaplan gave Romney a nine point lead in North Carolina. Here is the kicker, he claimed 15.1% of African Americans that he called supported Romney. One of the most highest percentages yet. There is somethingelse I found out. Mr Kaplan told one of the critics for his Poll in Ohio, that Obama would lose Florida,Virginia and North Carolina when Chuck Todd went Public with it. So there is apparently some collaboration with these Pollsters on Polls. I wonder how much Kaplan is getting paid for his Polls?

In early voting, the Republicans appear to only be getting less than two percent of the African American vote after over 600,000 votes so far.