Have you seen how many NYC campaign HQ's Bernie has?

[Barack_America]

12!!

http://map.berniesanders.com

I swear last week he only had only the one in Brooklyn.

I watch where these things are added to try to get a sense of the campaign's strategy, and where they feel their strengths are. At first, they were popping up all over PA and IN, but not NY, which was a bit concerning for their perceived chances in that state.

But, in the past several days...HQ all over NYC. Sanders has gone all-in on NY!

The internal polling must be looking fairly promising!

Oh, and don't worry, he's still got a bunch in the others states; there's been more added in PA and IN, and a bunch of fresh ones in MD. Hey, DE, you've got one too now!

[flor-de-jasmim]

1. What about in NY state as a whole? Eom

[jfern]

3. 8 in the boroughs, 4 in the suburbs, and 6 upstate for a total of 18

Also the Erie, PA and Burlington, VT offices aren't that far away.

It looks like he has more in Pennsylvania than New York State.

[Barack_America]

4. 22 in PA(!) and 8 in IN.

5 in MD.

Any thoughts on the just 1 in CT?

[jfern]

5. Maybe they're planning on sending some of their New York operation to CT for that 1 week in between

[Barack_America]

6. Quite possibly.

It's obvious that the NYC-area is where all of the WI staff went.

I personally have zero feel for CT, I would imagine it to be fairly strong for Clinton?

[Art_from_Ark]

10. How strong would Connecticut be for Clinton

after her pathetic attempt to blame Bernie for Sandy Hook?

[HereSince1628]

12. They seem to have a lot of people who loved Joe Liebermann's side of the party

which last I looked is the same side that HRC belongs to...

[amborin]

14. article in last thurs nytimes discusses how upstate ny is very favorable for Bernie

HRC promised jobs that never materialized......does Bernie have a good presence there?

Schenectady, Albany, Cohoes, etc.......

[jfern]

30. Yes, Hillary is not very popular upstate

Ithaca has a lot of volunteers. I don't know about other areas.

[amborin]

31. Ithaca has Cornell and Ithaca College; the other areas are not really college towns;

Schenectady is solidly white blue collar working class, old GE plant, etc....same for Cohoes, etc....we need people on the ground there.....

[jfern]

32. Ithaca might need to export some volunteers. People should let them know where they're most needed.

[malokvale77]

2. Thank you for reminding me to send Bernie some money. nt

[highprincipleswork]

7. Bernie Sanders can definitely win NY!

[Barack_America]

8. I absolutely agree.

And I think the new offices mean that the Sanders campaign thinks so too!

[geek tragedy]

9. Smoke 'em if you got 'em

There's only so much a campaign office can do in one week. Sanders has money to burn and he needs to win NY.

He's going to lose by double-digits here.

[Barack_America]

11. No. A double-digit loss is not going to happen.

The polls are already tighter than that.

[geek tragedy]

13. Not a single poll shows it closer than double digits nt

[Barack_America]

20. Multiple polls show him closing 20-30 points in 3 weeks.

So that momentum alone suggests a close of at least 12-15 points further. Current split (even including the crappy Emerson landline only poll) is Clinton +14. And recent polling has underestimated Sanders's performance by at least 10 points, relative to the outcome.

[geek tragedy]

21. no, one bad poll showed her up an unrealistic +48

every other poll has shown +10 to +21.

There's only been 2 primaries since March 15.

Polls were within the margin of error for March 15 states.

Wisconsin I knew would be double-digits for Sanders. And I know NY will be double digits for Clinton. There's no pool of last minute voters available here, and independents won't be voting. So the polls have a much easier time measuring the electorate.

[Barack_America]

22. ? Both Arizona and Wisconsin underestimated Sanders by ~12 points.

According to the RCP average.

Right now Clinton is an average of +14 in NY, even including bad polls.

[geek tragedy]

23. so you're 'unskewing' the polls by assuming Sanders +12?

Worked out great for people hoping for Romney win.

[Barack_America]

24. Pollsters seem to fairly consistently be missing a group of Sanders voters.

Independents? Young people? Men? Enthusiasm?

I figure you either try to factor this into the existing polling...or you ignore the polling.

[geek tragedy]

25. Independents won't be voting in NY primary.

Polls underestimated Clinton in Ohio, South Carolina and other states.

There's no systemic bias in the polls.

[Barack_America]

26. They didn't vote in AZ, and yet...Sanders still underestimated by 12 points.

Will it happen again in NY? We'll soon see.

[geek tragedy]

27. there was only one recent poll in AZ, and it had a huge number of undecided voters.

from a no-name polling company

538 didn't even have a projection for the state.

Yes we will soon see. But here's a hint: Clinton is not lowering expectations here.

[Barack_America]

28. She didn't in Michigan either.

The upcoming Siena poll will be very interesting.

By the way, fun conversation with you. As much as I support Sanders, I think I enjoy politics a bit more.

[geek tragedy]

29. you and I agree on Siena.

their methodology is the soundest of the pollsters working NY. the others try to combine general election numbers along with primary numbers--bad idea in a closed primary state.

I expect Siena to show modest movement towards Sanders, probably +15-18 instead of the +21.

Expect to see tons of complaints here on election day--it was a mess when it was Obama vs Clinton. Confusing rules, and less than cutting edge technology in our voting system. I feel somewhat assured that they can't corrupt the results too much here, because the system is too unmanageable.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

15. Bernie is gonna win

I can feel it. He is like kitchen soup for the soul

[DinahMoeHum]

16. But will he actually campaign anywhere in upstate NY?

Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 11:58 AM - Edit history (1)

HQs by themselves simply ain't gonna cut it.

[Barack_America]

17. Check his map.

He's in Buffalo tomorrow. Rochester and Syracuse on Tuesday.

[DinahMoeHum]

19. Thanks.

Onward. . .