Did not know RV polls are more accurate than the LV polls

[gabeana]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/23/1149071/-Why-registered-voter-screens-matter-they-ve-been-more-accurate

Of the 50 state presidential polls conducting during the final month of the 2004 and 2008 presidential campaigns, the RV result was closer to the final outcome than the LV result in fully half of them. In just 38 percent of them was the LV screen closer to the final outcome than the RV screen. In six of the polls, incidentally, there was no difference between the RV/LV results in a poll.

[progressivebydesign]

1. Problem is that the pollsters make up their OWN screen for LV.

And that model does not take into account the hours-long lines of early voters right now, and the demographics therein. The likely voter screens tend to be white, middle aged, upper middle class, women who are conservative. They do a poll then dump up to 1/3 of the respondents to fit into their narrative of who they think statistically will vote. Well, as you can imagine that gets dumped on its ass when you have a candidate like President Obama who inspires all kinds of people to vote -- some who have never voted in their long life, some that are voting for the first time.

I suspect that the LV screens were more accurate in conservative States, because that's what the LV screens tend to favor.

[FBaggins]

2. No... They aren't

They CAN be - but finding a small minority of counter examples really doesn't demonstrate that LV screens (with decades of track records) are invalid.