2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGallup LV -Romney 50% Obama 47% /RV -Obama 48% -Romney 47%/Approve 53% -Disapprove 42%
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logoMy Pet Goat
(413 posts)O back into the lead on RV, Approval at 53 means better numbers tomorrow (probably).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)My Pet Goat
(413 posts)the horse race number is heading up tomorrow (USUALLY).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)I usually don't pay it any attention. Not sure why Gallup bothers with a poll that includes people who can't and certainly won't vote.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)DrToast
(6,414 posts)If Obama is gaining in approval rating, then he's likely gaining in the other two.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)Imagine you are a fan of a basketball team that was up by ten points with five minutes left. There's now ninety seconds on the clock, the opposing team has the ball, and they are down by just two.
That's the story of the last week in this poll.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)good call, sir.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)What I like
!) The 53%-42% approve/disapprove. Those are a winner's numbers.
2) The lv/rv gap has narrowed to 4
3) O leads among rvs.
4) O has a lot of momentum in that poll. He has moved up three points in four or five days.
What I don't like
!) We are still behind.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)day or two in polling, which threw the entire tracker off. Now those days have dropped off, and we're back to Obama ahead in RVs, with LV screen producing Romney's entire lead.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)I don't care. Do you? Or did we start electing President's based on the popular vote???
These totals INCLUDE places like Alabama and Mississippi, which have zero bearing on the race. Focusing on a poll like that is fairly useless, other than the approval numbers, which are interesting.
mzmolly
(51,005 posts)even in that figure, which is good IMHO.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)mzmolly
(51,005 posts)that's appropriate.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)boingboinh
(290 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Now Obama's ahead in their RV measure with Romney's entire LV lead based on Gallup's gonzo LV screen.
boingboinh
(290 posts)Dude, you called it! I remember your other post!
Many here are genuflecting in your presence.
kansasobama
(609 posts)I am glad they are moving well. 53-42 is a little bit of an overkill, don't you think so...
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)one has to wonder why he was ever behind 7 points to begin with?
If their LV model is so bad, it is essentially a tie. Which every other poll known to man is showing (except Ramussen of course).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)two days. Now he's back in front in RVs.
NewsCenter28
(1,835 posts)Presidents with 53% approval ratings don't go down to defeat.
djnicadress
(39 posts)gallup is crap who cares what they say
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)We don't elect on the popular vote. And Likely Voter is a bullshit model, based on Gallup (RW) interpretation of who they think will vote.
White, middle/upper class, woman, in her middle age, who leans conservative.
Very few of us are actually watching the Gallup polls.
RedSpartan
(1,693 posts)prussogirl
(12 posts)I still do not know which polls to track, Isn't Gallop right leaning? If anyone can sugget which polls to follow thtat would really help me out.
dmallind
(10,437 posts)Even RCP. Different companies from either different methodologies in screening etc or inherent bias will skew one way or the other. Samples vary and so do weightings for correction. Even a perfect poll has a margin of error and a confidence level.
Sure there are egregious pollers, but we should not throw out everything even they do. Much beter to look at the aggregate of polls on the state level. Electoral-vote.com does a very clear job that is easy to follow and fairly constructed. 538 at NY Times if you want more wonkery.
prussogirl
(12 posts)The information you provided was very informative. Thanks I appreciate it!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)@Obamamentum
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Non registered voters? Do they end the survey if you say you aren't registered?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Johnny2X2X
(19,118 posts)There is no way to interpret it other than that he saw a great day in polling after the debate. To move a 7 day average 2 points means great things. To move a 3 day rolling average 5 points on approval rating vs disapproval is even bigger.
We've all been worried about Gallup because it's been a respected poll for so long, love seeing it come back to reality.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)last week in Gallup, will the media now talk about the Obama surge?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)He's still ahead with Likely Voters, but Obama is ahead with Registered Voters.
And as others have commented, it's odd that a President has an Approval Rating of 53% (which usually means Re-election) and yet is not in the lead with Likely Voters.