Sant. Could Lose MI Vote, Still Gain Delegates BONUS: Romney could lose some of FL and AZ delegates

[morningfog]

Santorum Could Lose Michigan Vote But Still Gain Delegates

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Each of Michigan's 14 congressional districts (the state currently has 15 but has lost one because of reapportionment following the 2010 Census) will award two delegates to the top vote-getter in that district. Romney appears to be running better in the six or seven districts surrounding Detroit, while Santorum is doing better in the more rural areas.

Two additional delegates will be awarded statewide — but unless one candidate wins by an overwhelming margin, those will almost certainly be divided one to Romney, and one to Santorum.


Bottom line: Michigan's demographics and recent polling suggest there is a real possibility that Santorum and Romney will each get 15 of the state's 30 delegates.

* * *

But because Arizona will award all of its delegates to the statewide winner, it, like Florida last month, has run afoul of a second RNC rule, one that prohibits winner-take-all primaries before April 1. And, like Florida, it faces a challenge at the summer convention — meaning that if the delegate count still matters then, both states' delegates could be reallocated by the Committee on Contests.

In other words, those tracking delegates at this stage would be wise to note that Arizona's 29 delegates and Florida's 50 could well be redistributed proportionally. Romney won Florida and is leading in Arizona but could see that 79-delegate margin shrink dramatically — right at the moment when he could be scratching for every last delegate.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/02/28/147523263/santorum-could-lose-michigan-vote-but-still-gain-delegates

[NAO]

1. Saint - orum?

St. Orum: He is the Saint of the frothy mixture of lube and fecal matter, the guardian of the fertile womb, and tax cuts for the wealthy.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. For Santorum, he needs an outright win or he's done...

Even if he gains more delegates, the narrative will be set that Romney saved his campaign tonight with a victory. Santorum needs a popular vote win - not a delegate win. Delegates, at this point, don't matter. It's all about perception heading into Super Tuesday.

[morningfog]

3. Unless Romney significantly outperforms the latest polls and wins by more than

3 points, the perception will be he is a wounded candidate, who only barely eked out a win in his home state against Santorum. He will be seen as having no chance in MI or the country against Obama. THere is almost no way for ROmney to walk away tonight with a perception of strength, even if he wins both states.

Santorum has no reason to get out before Super Tuesday, unless he loses big in Michigan, which doesn't seem to be what will happen. Santorum is doing well in several ST states and Romney is so badly wounded and keeps inflicting wounds to himself, Santorum loses nothing by riding it out.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. See, I don't think so. Even a razor thin victory by Romney could be spun as a positive...

Considering, a week ago, he was down, in some polls, by double digits.