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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat would happen if superdelegates had to vote for the candidate who won their state?
One of the weird subplots to the anxious insistence of Bernie Sanders supporters that he's got a clear path to victory is the extent to which that path would, ultimately, rely on the superdelegates that many of those same supporters think are currently standing in his way.
Per delegate-watcher Daniel Nichanian, Sanders needs to win 56.4 percent of the remaining pledged delegates in order to overtake Hillary Clinton's lead among pledged delegates. (Quick reminder: These are the delegates that have to vote for one candidate or the other. This also includes delegates in Washington State, where Sanders won big.) There are 1,647 pledged delegates out there left to win -- but 1,132 of those are tied up in five states: New York, California, Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey. In all five, recent polls show Clinton with a big lead.* Even if Sanders were to tie Clinton in each, he'd need to win 70 percent of what's left to pass her pledged delegate total. If the recent polls and polling averages hold, though, Sanders needs to win 87 percent of everything else. Even if Clinton only wins those five states by four points, Sanders needs three-quarters of everything else.
In other words, it's not the case that superdelegates are why Clinton is leading. But she does have a disproportionate lead among superdelegates, with The Post's tally suggesting that she has 469 superdelegates backing her to Sanders's 31. (Superdelegates can back whoever they want and change their minds at any time, as many did in 2008 as it became clear that Barack Obama would win the pledged delegate total that year.)
In fact, even distributing the superdelegates from states that have already voted in a proportional way -- treating them like regular delegates, in other words -- Clinton still leads, although by less.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/12/what-would-happen-if-superdelegates-had-to-vote-for-the-candidate-who-won-their-state/
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What would happen if superdelegates had to vote for the candidate who won their state? (Original Post)
DesertRat
Apr 2016
OP
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)1. Why are there super delegates at all?
The whole thing is bullshit, a firewall against the people protecting the corporatist dems who think they own the party.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)2. All our delegates are belong to us
And they will vote (mostly) for Bernie.
The only person who can win the GE, it is now quite evident, is Bernie. The supers will not be fools (mostly) and vote for a loser. They will be smart and vote for Bernie.
MichMan
(11,939 posts)3. Then they would just be delegates
Not a fan of having super delegates in the first place, but if they were required to vote for the winner of the state, then they would just be regular delegates