Democratic Wave Building As 13 More House Seats Move Toward The Democratic Party

[silvershadow]

The Republican House majority could be washed out to sea as 13 more House are shifting towards the Democratic Party.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has changed the ranking on 14 House seats, and 13 of the changes are bad for the Republican Party.

According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

In many states, Republican-controlled legislatures drew a large number of marginally Republican seats in order to maximize the number of seats the party could control. But a relatively large Democratic wave could inundate even some supposedly safe GOP seats, overcoming a seemingly high floodwall. Whereas a one-point increase over 2012 would result in nine net seats being won by the Democratic presidential nominee, a two-point increase (54% nationally) quickly raises that net advantage to 35 seats. Suddenly Republicans would be defending 50 seats in districts won by the Democratic presidential nominee, and two Democratic-held Romney seats would become slightly more blue than not. This would give Democrats a substantial target list to get to the necessary 30-seat gain they need to take back the lower chamber. And a three-point Democratic increase to 55%, a reasonable upper limit in our eyes, would leave 56 GOP-held seats in blue territory. Overall, Democrats would hold a presidential vote edge in 241 seats. This would be similar to the 2008 presidential vote: That year, Obama won the two-party vote in 242 congressional districts as currently drawn.

…..

That is roughly what our outlook is right now — a small Democratic gain of about 5-10 seats — but as we showed earlier, the presidential math could change that calculation, swelling Democratic gains. On the flip side, Republicans still have a chance to hold Democrats to single-digits gains. A Republican net gain seems exceedingly unlikely at this point, but in this crazy cycle one cannot completely rule it out with seven months to go.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/04/14/democratic-wave-building-13-house-seats-move-democratic-party.html

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. Millions more vote for Democrats and yet the right wing controls the House. It is

such bullshit.

[elljay]

5. Because Democrats apparently have more important things to do

than vote in mid-term elections. We've let the Republicans take control of most of our state governments. Our fault entirely - we knew exactly what the Republicans would do and we didn't care enough to cast the ballots to prevent it.

[Ken Burch]

11. In 2010 and 2014, the national party itself didn't really try to win those midterms.

In fact, in both years, the DCCC and the DSCC basically publicly gave up in about August. It's not just on the voters-it's on the party to work to get the voters out and to keep up a sense of hope that it's WORTH going out to vote.

[elljay]

12. True that

I do wonder sometimes whether they are actually on our side or not.

[Art_from_Ark]

14. They haven't fielded a Democratic candidate for Arkansas's 3rd district since 2010

And even then, that candidate was forced to bow out before the election because the state's right-wing newspaper claimed he had not been 100% truthful about his military record.

[elljay]

15. That is appalling!

Especially in this election when the Republicans are in turmoil.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. The only candidates in this year's 3rd district election

are the incumbent Republican, and his Libertarian challenger, same as last time. Last time, I left that race blank on my ballot, as I saw no difference between the two. I'll likely do the same this year.

The election before that (2012), there was a Libertarian, a Green, and the Republican incumbent. I voted for the Green (Rebekah Kennedy), who holds the distinction of being the Green candidate who has won the highest percentage of votes (16%) for a Federal-level election in the US.

[elljay]

19. Looks like if you want a candidate

your district Dems/Greens will have to do it by yourselves. We need to not only have a 50 state plan, we must challenge each and every election. We're not gonna win all of them but we will force the Republicans to spend money and attention on races they usually ignore.

[mcar]

22. My FL red district hasn't had a Democratic candidate for several cycles

Once our Blue Dog (but reliable D vote) rep got gerrymandered out. I want to go to local Democratic party meetings, I really do, but if they don't even try, why should I?

It should be noted that SO and I fear even putting a bumper sticker on our car and I talk politics with only one person in town - a Republican dude in my gym who voted Obama twice and plans to vote for the Dem nominee. Because he isn't crazy.

[IronLionZion]

10. Do millions of Democrats vote?

It all comes down to turnout. And Dems are often hard working busy people with low paying jobs. Dems need to be inspired to turn out. And Repubs would love for Dems to feel discouraged about "the election is rigged" "your vote doesn't matter" amongst more serious nonsense like reducing polling places in urban areas and challenging IDs and flagrantly striking large swaths of minorities from the voter rolls. They don't want us to vote.

Yes there's more of us, but it's an uphill battle for many.

[cynzke]

13. Dems need to understand this!

http://blog.chron.com/nickanderson/2014/11/voter-apathy/

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

16. Hey! You two are on to something!

[Dem2]

2. I've noted in the past that they've (Republicans) spread themselves thin

Once Democrats break through their meagerly built firewalls, it could be a major upheaval for Republicans as they have little more gerrymandering power left in their holster.

[getagrip_already]

3. all ya gotta do....

is get disgruntled trump and/or cruz supporters to punish the party by not voting down ticket. Whoever doesn't get the nom will have a LOT of supporters feeling bitter and cheated.

Shouldn't be too hard. That is the gift of a contested convention.

[Tarc]

4. You have the flipside too, in that every Dem running will tie his/her opponent to the GOP nominee

I mean, look what Trumpy did today, he compared Romney's losing the '12 election to Eric Garner's "I can't breathe!", i.e. a choking analogy.

Every D running this year needs to hang that on their opponent's head. The savagery of someone who would cheer that is baffling.

[elljay]

6. Except you are assuming

that Republican voters find that offensive the way we do. They don't.

[Tarc]

7. WHOOSH

[Gman]

9. Another firewall the GOP has is voter suppression laws

and a SCOTUS that supported the laws. And there's no chance to change it before November.

[BernieforPres2016]

17. There is not going to be any Democratic wave if Hillary is the nominee

She could win the Presidency if the Republican nominee is Trump or Cruz, but it will be a brutally negative general election campaign that alienates voters on both sides and causes many to stay home. Hillary and Bill Clinton have been doing everything they can to disparage the young voters that are needed to create a large turnout and a big swing toward Democrats in Congress.

I don't know how Sabato can predict anything about the House or Senate at this point without knowing who the nominee for either party is going to be or with what happens to the Sanders and Trump movements if they aren't the nominees. But predictors gotta predict, that's how they make a living. If I remember correctly, at one point in 1988 Dukakis had a 17 point lead in the national polls over Bush and his election was seen as a foregone conclusion. And Dukakis ended up getting trounced, winning only 10 states plus DC.

[houston16revival]

20. Gerrymandering spread the GOP too thin?

Not thin enough for me.

I think that's what he's saying. To gain seats they took some from strong GOP
districts and shifted them to Democratic districts. So the former Democratic
districts are not safe seats, and the former GOP strongholds are not as safe.

You know ... correct me if I'm misinterpreting that.

[rateyes]

21. Three words as to why Dems kept losing seats starting in 2010

Debbie Wasserman-Schulz.

She could fuck up an anvil. Why in the hell we ever put her in charge of the DNC is beyond me. Goodbye 50-state strategy...hello Republican majorities.

[silvershadow]

23. Isn't that the truth? nt

[Chrisdutch]

24. DWS

the Democrats could sweep this group of Republican turds out of office if that idiot Debbie Wasserman Schultz were not the chairperson of this party. One sixth of the house seats are not being challenged, ONE SIXTH! The Dems need to start party building,NOW, or they will fade into being yes men for their corporate sponsors. Hillary is no help either, she and her husband are about the Clintons.