OMG! Hillary's 63% Lead in California Is GONE!

[amborin]

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-primary-up-for-grabs-as-Clinton-s-7235299.php

The California Democratic primary is up for grabs, as Hillary Clinton has watched her onetime 63-point lead in the polls shrink to six points over Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to a Field Poll released Friday.

Clinton leads Sanders 47 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in the June 7 primary, with 12 percent undecided. Voters who do not state a party preference are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, which is good news for Sanders, as unaffiliated voters in other states have been supportive. In California, nonpartisans support Sanders 49 percent to 39 percent for Clinton.

snip

Not only has Clinton’s lead shrunk dramatically among voters, her personal image is viewed unfavorably by a majority of all voters in deep-blue California.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

1. she only goes down

down down down

[restorefreedom]

3. here ya go

https://m.

[Fumesucker]

12. One good tune deserves another...

[restorefreedom]

18. holy crap that was good! nt

[tabasco]

30. Damn!

Woooo!

[Land of Enchantment]

34. Rockin it and Bernin Down the House! Thank you! nt

[islandmkl]

38. it's a damn trend...

[mhatrw]

45. Just one more?

[mhatrw]

46. Encore!

[Fumesucker]

47. And then there's this cover...

[drm604]

53. The Monkees - Goin' Down

[Hissyspit]

58. Greg Guidry - Goin' Down

(For the last time)

[beedle]

56. 7 minutes of Raggae protest song

Not exactly about 'going down' ... but certainly related. Used to play this a lot while waiting for Bush to leave office

[restorefreedom]

57. excellent. i don't listen to as much reggae these days

clearly a huge error on my part. i mean, uuuuge

[roguevalley]

13. In all her campaigns, she has never rose upward when she started, only going downward. Full

disclosure. I was born in California, lived there two weeks then spent the rest of my life in Oregon. California will not go for her. It will only get worse.

[wyldwolf]

71. you were saying?

[Kalidurga]

2. Someone will be along soon to tell us why we shouldn't be so happy about this.

I've been happy about California since well a long time ago. I have been saying California or bust for a while now.

[greiner3]

62. Ok

I'll be the first. Being too happy only leads to a lot of good chemicals being released and "And drugs are bad. Mmmkkk"

[Kalidurga]

63. Yeah I am high right now

[realmirage]

4. You guys and your math

Do you not realize that even if he wins California by 2 points it still means he loses the primary? He has to win by yuge margins at this point

[reddread]

8. the Golden State

California will put New York to shame.
New York will put Sanders in the White House.
landslides.
history.

[pdsimdars]

23. You think good.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

9. she is only 8% ahead, with 40% yet to vote

Math

[roguevalley]

14. only their 'math' matters. because America.

[Corporate666]

25. That doesn't paint the true picture...

"Only" 8% ahead makes it sound like Sanders just needs to do a little better to catch up. But in order to beat catch up and overtake his 8% deficit, he has to win by much greater than 8% margins, considering most of the country has already voted.

There are a few big states coming up. NY, PA, MD, CT are all big delegate states. Clinton is leading in all those states, often by double digit margins. And because those are big numbers of delegate states, it means the percentage he needs to win only increases as more and more groups vote.

By the time he gets to California, he will need to win by something like 95% to 5% to get the nomination. And that's just not going to happen.

[onecaliberal]

42. Guess what she is t going to have the delegates either so spare me

[Viva_La_Revolution]

44. it's a hell of alot more accurate than the 'vote totals' talking point

[angrychair]

50. Do you realize she cannot win with pledged delegates?

It really is math:
2,382 delegates are needed to secure the nomination.

HRC has 1,289 pledged delegates (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html)

Remaining delegates outstanding is 1647 pledged delegates (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html)

Simple math tells you that to achieve the needed number, in pledged delegates, she will have to win 66% of all remaining delegates.

MATH.

[Politicalboi]

5. We're in it to win it for Bernie

If NY let's us down, Ca will make it up. Much more time for Clinton scandals and Bill's mouth to fuck it all up.

[amborin]

15. Bernie bumper stickers are proliferating by the day! Bernie will win CA by A Yuuge Margin!

[cui bono]

35. They are! I've been seeing more lately in Los Angeles.

Granted, I live in a liberal neighborhood, but still driving all around I've only seen one Hillary bumper sticker and one Hillary yard sign.

.

[pantsonfire]

6. No wonder she is abandoning NY to go there and fundraise. n/t

[QC]

7. Her numbers move in only one direction. n/t

[DCBob]

10. The Hillary team will be pleased with a result anywhere close to that.

Because Bernie will need a massive blowout win like 80-20 in CA to close the delegate gap.

[amborin]

17. LOL! It will be 90-10 Bernie by then!

[tabasco]

33. I'm sure she would, since her numbers are diving and Sanders' are rising.

Ain't over till it's over, Bob, but you keep telling yourself it's over if you like.

[Logical]

48. She is not wrapping this up like she should be. Terrible performance. Nt

[highprincipleswork]

11. We are going to bring CA home for Bernie, as it should be.

[Buzz Clik]

16. LOL! You went back a year?

[amborin]

21. makes no difference, she's cooked

[Buzz Clik]

24. Oh dear!

Non sequitur much?

[oldandhappy]

19. Good Job California!!!

[Z_California]

20. Bernie will win Cali by 20%

The 6% who decided since January are going for Bernie by 90/10. By the time June comes around most of the rest of the undecided will be there as well. And the campaign hasn't even begun here. And this is just "Likely Democratic Voters"! Many young'ns (including my 3 sons) register unaffiliated here. Guess how that's gonna go for Bernie.

[Land of Enchantment]

36. Agreed. And--the winner of CA automatically will be awarded and extra 100

delegates. Things are looking up.

[Godhumor]

43. No... 105 delegates are awarded proportionately to statewide vote totals

Not just given to the winner of the state.

[pat_k]

22. fivethirtyeight gives Sanders 13% chance of winning,...

...which is not bad at all considering that he's currently focused on NY.

Seems to me a lot of those undecideds could break for Bernie. Hillary has been around for decades. If they haven't decided to go with her yet, they are certainly open to an alternative.

[Zira]

52. They already proved they are Hillarians. I bet Bernie wins California.

[pat_k]

54. I sure hope you're right.

I refrain from making predictions myself. Don't put much trust in polls either (but since it's about the only info out there, it's hard not to pay attention).


Anyway, I sure hope you're right!

[KingFlorez]

26. If you have to go back that far, you don't really have a good point

At that point the race was still quite hypothetical and no one had officially announced. This stupid "a year ago I was behind a million points" argument really means nothing in the long run.

[revbones]

28. Well according to Hillary followers that seems to be the standard for

anything positive toward Bernie. Funny how when it's something in Hillary's favor it's spot on accurate and relevant though. Nice how that works.

[BigBearJohn]

27. and the Bern goes on, and the Bern goes on. CA is BERNIN

[BigBearJohn]

29. Check the poll numbers after she gets indicted

[kennetha]

31. Bernie will be a mere footnote by the time California rolls around

[DisgustipatedinCA]

49. We are the largest state in the union, and WE WILL VOTE. We'll also kick your fucking footnote

into the middle of last week.

[anotherproletariat]

32. Your title had me worried...thank goodness she's still ahead, and as soon as she wins NY and PA

momentum will shift back. And even if for some reason Sanders wins the nomination, I will still vote for him.

[book_worm]

37. Bernie has been in this for a year it is not even realistic that Hillary would have a 63 point lead

but she is leading and she will win NY, PA, and other states in the next two weeks. California isn't even going to matter because even if Bernie did win it would be close enough that the delegate distribution would not give him any kind of advantage. You see it's really Bernie who needs to win California by 63-points--and he isn't.

[SHRED]

39. we've got Bernie's back out here

In our great state.

[HooptieWagon]

40. Her numbers always go down...

...when voters learn of an alternative.

[frylock]

41. I've seen all of one Hillary bumper sticker down here in LoCal.

The woman behind the wheel looked to be around Hillary's age.

[marlakay]

70. In my area Humboldt

All you see is a sea of Bernie.

I had my Bernie clothes on today, went to meeting and atopped at store just about every smiled at me after looking at my shirt and buttons.

[Uncle Joe]

51. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, amborin.

[ebayfool]

55. Yeah, Buddy!

And lotsa time for Bernie's numbers to climb higher! He hasn't even begun to campaign here and he's caught her! I'm talking hard, talking long to everyone here - Repub and Dem alike. There are some GOPers that are giving Sanders a closer look - they aren't liking what their team has thrown out there for the picking. And Clinton hasn't a chance in hell of picking them up. Sanders has to win the primary, so we can get on with the general!

Awesome news, Amborin - just awesome! TY!

and rec'd!

[tomm2thumbs]

59. I've got a couple Republicans ready to jump to 'no party preference' so they can vote for Bernie

it's a good time!!!

[wyldwolf]

64. that's because they prefer him in the General.

[tomm2thumbs]

65. nope, they can't stand Trump or Cruz

and who can blame them

[CrispyQ]

60. If she didn't have the SDs locked up, she'd be sweating bullets.

Too bad the democratic party is determined to foist her on us & not let The People decide.

[tabasco]

66. There is no more Democratic party, AFAIC.

It's Demorepublicratic Oligarchy Party A and Demorepublicratic Oligarchy Party B. Democracy is dead in the USA.

[greiner3]

61. Great

But remember her warning about RFK and June 7th

[markbark]

67. Stephan Colbert sums it up nicely

[The Midway Rebel]

68. Time

Is not on her side.

[marlakay]

69. Been working my buns off here for many months

Have registered a ton of voters.

Everytime we have events for Bernie here the places fill up no matter how big. We had a barnstorm to get volunteers and 200 people came who we now are training to phone bank, register, visability group...local parade coming up....we have Bernfest with bands next weekend, I am involved in that and registering.

I am up in Humboldt which is Bernie heaven so most of us are concentrating on phone banking elsewhere or going there, like trips to Reno, etc. a few of our team even flew to NY this week.

I went to meeting with grassroot leaders from SF to OR border in Santa Rosa last month and you wouldn't beileve how on top of things everyone has been doing before campaign has got anywhere near us.

A guy just this week got in touch with our team who is campaign guy for our area, he is thrilled at all we are doing.

We have weekly burritos with Bernie event where we train people to do stuff and have fun. In our area 30-50 show up. We fill all of our debate party places.