2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Is Bernie Sanders Slamming Southern Democrats?
Primary elections, however, are completely different animals. Primary elections are about voters within a political partyand sometimes without, in open primaries, which are another debate that we may get to in the futurehaving their shot at choosing which candidate their party should nominate. There are of course some states that matter more than others. But there arent any individual votes that matter more than others, at least among primaries (caucuses dont usually report individual votes). For Sanders to dismiss Clintons Southern votes as distortions of reality is hugely insulting to Democrats from the region.
And to one group of Democrats in particular, who are concentrated in the South and who happen to be the most loyal Democratic voters in the country. I dont think Sanders has a racist bone in his body, but is there not a certain racial tone-deafness in dismissing the votes of millions of black voters as distortions of reality? This is the one moment, their states presidential primary, when these African American voters have a chance to flex some actual political power in the national arena.
And then to write off Clintons Southern votes as conservative is just a lie intended to fool the gullible. Sure, the South is conservative at general-election time. But at Democratic primary time, its pretty darn liberal. Its blacks and Latinos (where they exist in large numbers) and trial lawyers and college professors and school teachers and social workers and the like. Theyre not conservative, any more than the people caucusing for Sanders in Idaho and Oklahoma are conservative, and he knows it.
The topic of Sanderss own red state wins actually raises another point. Hes won seven states that both he and Clinton would/will lose by at least 15 points in November, and in many cases more like 30: Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, and Alaska, along with the aforementioned two. And he won them in caucuses, not primaries, which nearly everyone agrees are less democratic, less representative of the whole of the voting population.
Now lets look at Clintons red-state wins. Shes won 10 red states: Texas, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina (Im calling North Carolina purple, and of course Virginia and Florida and Ohio). Neither she nor Sanders would probably win in these states either, although a Clinton win over Donald Trump seems conceivable in a couple of them.
In any case, yes, theyve both won states that are unwinnable in the fall. Yet do you hear Clinton going around saying that Sanderss victories in these states are distortions of reality? I dont. But Sanders goes around bragging, as he did at the debate, about winning eight of the last nine contests, many of them by landslide margins, referring to these very states where he or Clinton would get walloped in the fall, while denouncing her red-state wins as aberrational. What is it about his red states that countor more to the point, perhaps, what is it about hers that makes them not count?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/16/why-is-bernie-sanders-slamming-southern-democrats.html
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)He downplayed Hillary's southern victories.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)RazBerryBeret
(3,075 posts)cue the outrage.
Gothmog
(145,242 posts)Sanders' lame justification for why he is 2.4 million votes and 210 delegates behind is really sad http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/sanders-says-southern-primaries-distort-reality
Whats more, the South may be filled with red states, but in Democratic primaries, its economically liberal African-American voters who represent the bulk of those who are turning out to participate. Their votes dont distort reality so much as they reflect reality.
Maybe the argument is that Southern voters count, but they shouldnt have a prominent role at the start of the primary season. Except, (a) the South doesnt go first; the overwhelmingly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire go first; and (b) I dont know why states with fewer black voters would do a better job of ensuring that reality isnt distorted.
Perhaps Sanders means Southern states arent truly representative of the Democratic electorate. Except (a) given the importance of African-American communities in the party, Im not sure why not; and (b) are voters in Utah, Kansas, and Idaho more representative of the Democratic electorate?
Maybe he means that Democrats wont do well in these Southern states in the general election. Thats true, but once again, the same can be said of many of the states Sanders has also won.
As we discussed the other day, the New York Times reported last week that the Sanders campaign deliberately focused its efforts away from the South for a reason: Sanders and his advisers and allies knew that black voters would be decisive in those Southern contests, but he had been unable to make significant inroads with them.
As a tactical matter, this made perfect sense. There was no reason for the senator and his operation to build an electoral strategy around states he was likely to lose.
But as a rhetorical matter, arguing that states in which black voters were decisive kind of distort reality is a very different kind of message, one that Sanders still has time to change.
Sanders' revolution is a fantasy and his justifications for being behind do not stand up
dogman
(6,073 posts)If the first 10 states were in the Northwest would you view that as distorting reality?
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)The Southern primaries alone would "distort reality" briefly for more than one reason but notably because a very large portion of the 13% of Americans who are black live there. A third of us in Georgia are black.
But so what? Would Bernie have been happier if Georgia took Vermont's place in the primary schedule?The first primaries and the various regions that follow all create temporary distortions, such as the recent string of white states that also fail to represent America's sizable Latino population, but in the end the American electorate has voted.
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(Interestingly, there has been a phenomenon of blacks "returning" for cultural reasons to the south in recent years, although many were born elsewhere to parents who once left to seek better lives, so this map probably understates their concentration.)
Btw, Sanders' comments just dig his hole deeper with blacks, and no doubt with other racial and ethnic groups who are as sensitive to unintended dogwhistle notes as to intended ones. He won't be needing their votes in future races, of course, but he should care.
brush
(53,778 posts)preference from the jump. It's the dumbest strategy ever.
He did well in the mostly white early states (Iowa and New Hampshire) but not the southern states with many AA voters. Hell, they almost bragged that they didn't contest the southern primaries hard because they won't be carried in the general election.
I mentioned dumb strategy earlier, well that's what I mean. Primary voters determine the nominee. You can't get to the general without getting enough primary voters to vote for you. ALL VOTES MATTER, including black ones, but they say they didn't campaign for them.
Again DUMB. If Sanders had won two or three of those southern primaries he might be in the lead.
Ya can't win the Democratic Party nomination with just winning mostly white votes. That time has passed, just as it's passed for the general. The demographics of the country is browning as we speak.
Romney won a huge majority of white votes but couldn't beat the Obama coalition of blacks, Latinos, LGBTers, Asians, women, AND progressive whites not just progressive whites.
The Sanders campaign has no one to blame but themselves.
dogman
(6,073 posts)Bernie's campaign did not choose IA and NH. the Clintons have been involved in those Southern States for 40 years. Bernie had 6 months.
msongs
(67,405 posts)dogman
(6,073 posts)They are still a staple in the South. Those States are content with the status quo in the Party. They defected for Obama and it is now Hillary's turn. Bernie couldn't really hold hands and pray in the Churches like Hillary did.
brush
(53,778 posts)by working to raise money and elect other dem candidates, thus earning party loyalty and super delegates when his time to run as a dem came.
Yes, that's thinking ahead, admittedly, but if he had, he'd probably, as I said in the other post, have won some of those southern primaries, especially with his civil rights history. Black voters would have known about him.
But he didn't think about getting recognition outside of New England until he knew he needed to get on TV in the Democratic Party debates because he wasn't going to get any coverage running as an independent.
So let's face it, joining the party was an opportunistic move. He knew what he had to do.
Too bad he didn't do it years earlier.
And yes, I realize what I wrote.
dogman
(6,073 posts)It is time for the outsider and my fear is that the other outsider in the GOP will be able to ride that wave. I think Hillary's negatives are just to high. All this talk that Bernie is too rough on her is insane when you realize what Trump or Cruz will do. It seems that when he has enough time to work a state he can win.
brush
(53,778 posts)Wonder if Sanders will be able to say the same after the repugs start on him.
It won't be pretty, I mean with the Sandinista/Nicaragua thing and the Moscow trip. He's been spared so far.
dogman
(6,073 posts)They have been hitting her and it has affected her. Obama hit her in 2008 and she is taking a beating now. Her unfavorables and her failure to unite the voters will do her in.
brush
(53,778 posts)New York will go for Clinton as she bought home millions of dollars in funds after the 9/11 attacks. She was elected there twice as a US senator. She's got it.
dogman
(6,073 posts)I think she will lose the General, but that's not something I want to see.
brush
(53,778 posts)After Trump gets through with their convention after they try to steal it from him, their nominee won't even be able to get elected dog catcher.
dogman
(6,073 posts)DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)frontrunner and a DNC chair who works with Republicans to screw people. Have fun with the party. I believe I'm going independent after the general.
brush
(53,778 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)It's one of the most transient states in the union:
dogman
(6,073 posts)Sadly our Statehouses up North are suffering the same fate now.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If we had a friend who was a native Floridian we called him "Country" or "Pioneer"
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)She said she did not just win there, and listed four in a row that are the deep south.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)My suburban Los Angeles apartment floor is more heterogeneous than Burlington and I can prove it.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)The comments about the south are because our side has been labeled racist and sexist for months now. The took the narrative of the south and ran wit it as only whites support Bernie. We pointed out that the the people voting for Hillary according to the majority of the exit polls did not know who Bernie was. They then ran with the you are calling blacks uniformed. We then said he the rest of the country has not voted, Hillary's big gains were from all the south so just wait for the rest of the nation to vote. They called us racist. We explained how the south has a history of not supporting our candidates, so just wait for the rest to vote, they ran with disfranchisement. I am from the south, all reports show almost ever state sans Florida in the south had the lowest showing for our party in ages (if ever). The democratic party has been shrinking more and more down there, while the republican has actually been growing. The south has become the don't rock the ship party since they are afraid to lose any more people. We still go called racist. We posted a list of the horrible, racist laws they have done recently, how they are the least friendly area to lgbt communities, how they have faked investigations for years to target and arrest minorities, how they have ads for the KKK now running in Arkansas. The then countered with her newest meme not all my wins were int he deep south. They are now attempting to redefine it, in the debate she listed four or such of her wins as not deep south that are. If hillary was not winning the south it would have been under the bus long ago, she did with MLK last election...
http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2016/01/jan_7_2008_the_day_hillary_clinton_lost_the_black_vote.html
She is still using the dreamer line. Also the idea that the minority vote was the only thing that voted in the south is also wrong, they are the minority vote, they had a turn out as bad as the rest, in a few of the states it is a bit higher, but only Hawaii has the minority population white (Alaska is high too, and Washington here is more diverse than other 28 states or something like that). HRC made this about race and has been playing that race card as fast and often as she can...it started to wear thin with the #BernieMadeMeWhite. I feel embarrassed when she does it or pulls out the dead only when it is convenient. So that is the real issue. She is dismissing the minority vote like she owns it and dismissing the Bernie vote like they are not democrats. Florida won't be an isseu next election with global warming as it is, I read if the water raises 1" Florida will be under 3" of water (because it is so flat...Florida burn). No my main issue with Florida is Debbie and Governor Scott...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2016/04/11/florida-governor-rick-scott-posts-video-response-customer-starbucks-tirade-caught-camera/9JROogfR06JWolwOWKwUkK/story.html
He made a video attacking one lady in a coffee shop.
m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)when I have visited. It seems like Alabama.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Some people call Northern Florida Southern Georgia but you have to keep in mind the major population centers are Central and Southern Florida. Miami-Dade County is nearly 70% Latino.
msongs
(67,405 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)With our Democratic Governor and Democratic senator and four of five top statewide office-holders Democrats...we just can't hold a candle to Democratic strongholds like South Carolina, Mississippi, or the motherload of Democratic votes: Texas...
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)I was deeply offended by his comments. Sanders can go to hell.
Cha
(297,232 posts)in New York.
northernsouthern
(1,511 posts)These are all from this year.
Even their state flag is racist!
Oh, wait, That is Arkansas in the south...I take it back your point is stupid.
The HRC camp is getting called out on their racism, stop trying to back pedal out of what you did. I am not going to forgive the way many from this party has used race as a toy. I think we need a sticky on this so I can stop explaining this to people that are somehow blind of what happened.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)do they think the memory hole is that shallow?
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)state the reality of the situation
uponit7771
(90,339 posts)... and that's made known to anyone paying attention.
Sanders has lost the benefit of the doubt with me, first it was Cornell West... he went down hill from there
Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts)This is asinine and a douchey attempt to paint a man who fought hard for civil rights when it wasn't cool to do so.
Maybe we can find another school shooting to exploit for Hillary again.
Your side is not helping candidate flip-a-coin
Setsuna1972
(332 posts)Sanders just doesn't impress me . He's a flimflam man trying to sell people snake oil .
Vinca
(50,271 posts)conservative states that traditionally vote Republican in the general election are supporting her. Haven't you learned that in the end conservative voters always opt to vote for the real Republican?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I think we can all figure out what the real meaning is right?
Response to workinclasszero (Reply #42)
silvershadow This message was self-deleted by its author.
Setsuna1972
(332 posts)Deep South is a slick way of calling southern black voters stupid and uninformed . I will never forget logging in here after the SC and first Super Tursday primaries , seeing and reading so many posts about " the South should be ignored ", and "the black voters are uneducated with their slave mentality to fully appreciate Bernie Sanders". I will never support a bunch of holier than thou fools who insist of insulting people of color and expecting the same people they've insulted to blindly follow their Dear Leader.