We are going to convention with no winner

[angrychair]

Of pledged delegates.
For all the hype, media tripping over themselves to concede every advantage to Clinton (and at times, for almost 30 minutes, showing an empty stage where tRump might stand instead of a live speech by Sanders), millions of dollars of a head start, name recognition that money can't buy and, supossedly a Democratic base chopping at the bit to send her straight to the WH.

Sadly, for HRC supporters, that did not happen.

The path forward for HRC to win enough pledged delegates to win the nomination by the convention, is statistically improbable if not impossible.

Its math:
2,382 delegates are needed to secure the nomination.

HRC has 1,289 pledged delegates (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html)

Remaining delegates outstanding is 1647 pledged delegates (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html)

Simple math tells you that to achieve the needed number, in pledged delegates, she will have to win 66% of all remaining delegates.

Since NY, CT, ND, OR and CA are not looking great for HRC, I don't see her hitting that 66% mark.

SuperDelegates to save the day?

Given the recent turn of events, including a very real possibility that her teapublican opponent will likely be Cruz, not tRump, not so sure that beat on all those SuperDelegates voting for her given polling trend lines.
In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Sanders is in a far better position. He is beating Clinton among all registered voters, nationally, 47% to 42%. Sanders is also beating Clinton among Democrats, 49% to 48% (though, admittedly, that is within margin of error). Sanders beats Clinton with Independents 45% to 29%. It does happen to have both beating all Republican comers.
CBS Polling is not as concise. She beats tRump but would lose to Cruz and Kasich. Sanders beats all three and beats tRump well outside any margin of error.
54% of registered voters view Clinton unfavorably.
To be specific, Sanders is the only viable candidate (meaning not counting Kasich), Democrat or republican, that has a net favorable rating among all registered voters nationally.

[MFM008]

1. my sons girlfriend

is an HRC delegate and she will not change her vote.
And can we vote first before you say those states is not looking great for HRC, lets just see .
Dont count those chickens.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

2. The, uh...roof, appears to be involved in a conflagration. The roof, the roof the roof is...

Well, it could get interesting. Let's do this thing.

[Firebrand Gary]

3. Arithmetic.

2008 Presidential Primary 2118 Needed to Win

Senator Obama 1766.5 Pledged Delegates, 463 Super Delegates. TOTAL 2229.5
Senator Clinton 1639.5, 257 Super Delegates. TOTAL 1896.5

Hillary will be the nominee.

[leveymg]

4. We may come out of the Convention without a winner, too.

This is shaping up to be 1968 all over again. The Party establishment candidate is mortally wounded and the Democratic base split by overhanging issues of ideology and the ominous sound of wars. Dangerous times. Still are.

[msongs]

5. only the sanders camp thinks she is mortally wounded. the voters have voted otherwise nt

[leveymg]

6. Based on primary turnout, Dem voters are staying away in droves

this year. Meanwhile the other brand has rounded up millions more than they did 8 years ago. Then there is Director Comey and that wildcard. Not at all a good sign for November.

[mythology]

10. And yet Clinton has the most votes in the primaries

Additionally if she's so unpopular, why is she beating Sanders?

Of course Republicans have higher turnout than they did 8 years ago. Bush had left the Republican party battered in the public eye, where Democrats were ready to be done with that.

But that means roughly speaking nothing:

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/mar/06/david-brooks/david-brooks-said-primary-turnout-doesnt-predict-g/

For example Carter and Dukakis lost in 1980 and 1988 respectively even though Democratic primary turnout was higher than Republicans.

[leveymg]

11. You seem to think that D v R determines Pres. elections. But, Indys are 42% of the electorate.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

[pampango]

12. True but that does not necessarily mean that Democrats should choose the candidate that appeals to

independents every time. The candidate who best represents the Democratic base is also always a consideration. And we should hope that our base will factor in, not only how much they agree with the policies of each candidate, but how effectively they will attract independents in the GE.

I don't want the 'tail' (attractiveness to independents) 'wagging the dog' (representing our own base's ideology). That has happened too often in the past.

[leveymg]

13. Yes, but it's foolish to choose a nominee who is deeply distrusted by 60% of Indys and 20% of Ds

Here are Hillary's favorable/unfavorable numbers. Nobody else in this party has such high and persistent net negatives.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

Put those two graphs together, and you have a disaster in the making.

[pampango]

14. I agree but I am uncomfortable looking to the establishment to "save" us from the base's

preference as expressed in the popular vote and pledged delegates whether that preference is Bernie or Hillary. Let us hope that in the next two months our base understands the GE challenges.

[leveymg]

15. I agree. The Supers should be abolished.

"Let us hope that in the next two months our base understands the GE challenges." Amen to that!

[BluegrassDem]

7. So you hope the superdelegates will overrule the popular vote and pledged delegate

leader? Umm, yeah, that'll go over real well with the Democratic voters. I wonder what minority voters would think of the supers giving the nom to Bernie after he did so poorly with them? It's not happening buddy!

[pampango]

9. That is a scary thought. If Bernie leads in the popular vote and in pledged delegates at

the convention, I will be mightily pissed if the super-delegates hand the nomination to Hillary.

I am sure Hillary supporters will feel the same way if she leads in both and they hand the nomination to Bernie.

[Recursion]

8. Err... with two candidates and an odd number of pledged delegates

one will necessarily go to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates.

I suspect the supers will en masse vote for that candidate.

[firebrand80]

16. The hypocrisy amazes me

If the shoe were on the other foot, Bernie supporters would be threatening mutiny.

I knew this primary season would grow increasingly ridiculous, but I couldn't have dreamed this nonsense up.