2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGallup poll: Democratic voters’ opinion of Hillary Clinton has reached a new low
The political polling organization reports that Clintons net favorability rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents has sunk to +36 (66% positive, 30% negative) as of April, 2016, the lowest its been since they started collecting data in July of 2015. (Net favorability rating is obtained by subtracting negatives from positives; a candidate whos popular with half of a given demographic, unpopular with the other half will receive a net rating of zero.) Bernie Sanders net rating, however, has been trending upwards, and is now a full 16 points above Clintons at +52. Heres a graph of all the data thats been collected on the two so far:
You will note that both candidates have taken a dive in April; Gallup attributes this to the increasing volume of their criticism of one another. Still, the trend is clear: The more people learn about Sanders, the more they like him; the more they learn about Clinton, the less they like her. No wonder she got booed at the debate.
Seeing as Clinton is likely to win the nomination with the help of the superdelegates, who will likely prove the deciding factor, this should worry Democratic strategists hoping to get out the vote in November. Im not saying shes going to lose, but if I were part of the superdelegate club a system ostensibly put in place to guard against the nomination of un-electable candidates I would think long and hard about Clinton and Sanders relative abilities to energize the partys base and get independents to vote for them.
http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/287775/gallup-poll-democratic-voters-opinion-hillary-clinton-new-low/?utm_source=share-fb&utm_medium=button
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)DebbieCDC
(2,543 posts)Sounds like a reaction to getting a diagnosis of a terminal illness
Downwinder
(12,869 posts)Funtatlaguy
(10,878 posts)those arm rests....you might feel a little discomfort....
Ok, hope that wasn't too bad...
Well, yeah. I guess your hand could have been Trump sized.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)The GOP hates her, Dems overall are lukewarm and the non-partisan public doesn't much like her.
A recipe for at least four years of gridlock.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)bjo59
(1,166 posts)elleng
(130,974 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)it could produce a siege mentality in the White House. Some of us remember the Nixon years.
I think our country deserves better.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)just in time for the next round of congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, ensuring a Republican house for another decade.
It's always amazing to watch a plan come together. It's too bad it's the other side's plan.
LadyHawkAZ
(6,199 posts)This will cost us down ticket in 2016 as well.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)What really matters is how many of them we can clean out of Congress (and lower).
We need coattails; I believe Bernie's passionate supporters will provide that.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)because they have no allegiance to the Democratic Party, Obama or our down ballot candidates. They won't show up in 2018 just as they didn't for Obama in 2014 and then will complain about not getting anything done. Clinton supporters coalesced around Obama which resulted in 2 Democratic victories. Sanders supporters are in it for themselves. Seriously how many Clinton supporters have ever threatened not to vote for the Democratic nominee. Clinton supporters will support the Democratic nominee just as they did in 2008 and 2012
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/190787/clinton-image-among-democrats-new-low.aspx
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)Maybe you should be asking why, and looking for the possible responsibility of the Democratic misleadership class, rather than those who have been turned off by it.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
Armstead
(47,803 posts)That's a bad thing?
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)All these.... people who haven't served as loyal party hacks for 99 years coming in and thinking they should have a say.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)Maybe you've noticed that elections are won by winning the independents?
Second, Sanders has won 17 Democratic primaries and caucuses, so obviously he's got Democratic supporters.
The problem is in the money-corrupted corporate service of the Democratic politicians. That's what has turned so many people off. You can blame the people who are rightly disgusted with the neoliberal New Democrats, or you can blame the parties actually responsible for having turned the D's into a total corporate party.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)Democrats support Clinton in overwhelming numbers
daleanime
(17,796 posts)independents, about 40% of all voters, don't like her and republicans would crawl over broken glass to vote against her.
And if you manage to not lose the primary and the general, neither of which are givens, your reward if you are lucky is another 4 years of increasingly partisan gridlock. Yeah.....
Stallion
(6,476 posts)unless he lost to Trump. Sanders will get absolutely nothing done because both he would have no friends in either party
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Bernie will get far more done than Hillary ever could.
For one thing, all Bernie has to do is be honest about a couple of historical facts. I don't have any specific facts in mind, but all he has to do is be up front about a couple facts that are generally covered up in D.C. and he will have the respect of every voting member of Congress -- as well as the fear.
He could, for example, call for an investigation of certain public contract awards that are not competitive or check whether our procurement policies comply with our laws or review the relationship between certain members of the press and politicians and judges.
I am not saying that Bernie would do this. He has never mentioned it as far as I know. But just a little honesty could drastically change the mood of a lot of the top dogs in Washington, D.C. in my opinion.
A review of defense spending would be a good place to start. It is this kind of change that a lot of Americans want to see in our government.
So don't think that Bernie can't achieve anything. Just appointing honest people to our government and letting them do honest work would be a wonderful achievement.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)until he dared to challenge the statue quo, now he bravely stands alone.....?
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)Of course, billions and billions of Democrats do! I'm totally overwhelmed!
delrem
(9,688 posts)then Sanders_Supporters aren't "Democrats", in your tiny Clintoncentric universe.
Get used to your isolation.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)bring on the closed Democratic primaries
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)You're free to define it however you like.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)the far left hasn't won a National Election in a Century except after the greatest economic collapse in American history. Then FDR deserted the far left
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)FDR is the far left? Hello?
FDR was elected from the center in 1932 and moved greatly to the left as it became obvious that the old prescriptions would not help, until he had the biggest landslide in history in 1936.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Democrats including Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama, and I am a strong, unapologetic Bernie supporter.
A lot of young people who have not voted because they were not old enough in the past now support Bernie. Bernie is changing our Party, and I am very happy about it.
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)And totally hilarious, please don't stop.
delrem
(9,688 posts)and by the trending polls.
So you want to stop time. You want to close the process at a state that favors Hillary Rodham Clinton.
But then you won't take any responsibility for the death and destruction brought about by the election of a leader of the neocon movement, a leader endorsed by Kagan, Kissinger, and who is openly promoting more neocon wars even after over a million deaths.
Yah, I know the type. They're all over the internet.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, California
delrem
(9,688 posts)Because the trendlines are so happy for you, you want to close the door.
You're afraid of votes.
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)I'm not a pro war democrat
Stallion
(6,476 posts)That's the difference between this Democrat and you. I'm tired of pretending that the Sanders "independents" aren't a cancer on the Democratic Party. If you would vote for Trump or Cruz or the Green Party over Clinton then you have that right-but I'm not going to be react with fear about people threatening not to vote for Clinton. Its up to you. Maybe Nadar will run again
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)You're getting all worked up.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)I'll be here all week
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)Little guy was all excited though, wasn't he?
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)the hilly purists committing/supporting election fraud and voter suppression in Her name.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)You certainly like to paint with a broad brush and the resulting portrait is unrecognizable because it's not true.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Lifelong Democrat here, I turn out for every election, even school board.
I'm supporting Bernie Sanders.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I've been here for twelve fucking years, buddy.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)If you were an actual contributing member of this community, you'd know it already.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Stallion
(6,476 posts)I'm voting for the Democrat no matter what PERIOD
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)The original post you responded to said "Lifelong Democrat". Maybe reading comprehension isn't your strong suit?
Stallion
(6,476 posts)I have no problem with a Sanders supporter fighting for his candidate until the bitter end-I did in 2008 and then I proudly voted for Barack Hussein Obama
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)But your thesis up there was something about Sanders supporters not being "real Democrats" or only showing up for this primary contest, or some similarly incendiary nonsense.
Which is why I said "bullshit". Most of DU supports Sanders, and most of DU is absolutely real Democrats.
Once we have a nominee, then we can talk about "support the nominee". We don't have a nominee yet. hyperbolic attempts to pre-empt the primary contest notwithstanding.
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)So you'll be proudly voting for Senator Bernard Sanders if he's the nominee then?
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)That they don't even see the point in going out to vote any more.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Bill initiated a private call to Donald a couple weeks before Donald announced. They are friends, after all. Well, so far as the term "friends" would apply of that group. Actually I think it's more like a private club.
Against Trump a Clinton 66% favorability rating among Dems still seems like a winning formula.
Trump is extremely unpopular among a broad Rep demographic. His "grassroots" is a deranged remnant of the "tea party", absent the foundation (AEI etc) funding, which is hardly much more than discarded astroturf. It isn't going anywhere.
Hillary is campaigning a little to the right of the Republican "center" on all economic and foreign policy counts. She's a neocon. I think she is indeed capable of winning Republican votes, against Trump or even Cruz. That's the soul of her "Triangulated Democratic Party".
But that is what Clinton is counting on. She is counting on running against Trump.
I think an extreme right winger like Kasich would clean her clock.
But Trump or Cruz would be handily beaten in that order.
Hey, welcome to the Republican swamps.
MFM008
(19,816 posts)Lets ask 'President' Romney what he thinks.
They predicted he would win in 2012.
PATRICK
(12,228 posts)This is like handicapping the Superbowl except nobody really wants it to be a contest, or nailbiting close. So instead of hype we get a lot of fear and false sounding pre-triumphs. And no, they wouldn't be doing the smackdowns in quite the same way if the candidate was winning.
I would like to mention what the contest means. If Sanders wins Clinton and all the pro-Clinton signs, supports, polls, etc. go crashing to the ground. A one percent or slightly larger loss or even a few percents should mean the same just with more drawn out despair and agony over denial. Then the HRC campaign goes to 'hope for a change" to the grueling other states. If Bernie slips behind his best scenario- more agony. If for the first time since the Southern GOP leaning states the optimistic polls are accurate for her she actually may be on her way.
Superdelegates, aka known as the centrist party establishment that affirms this primary was never planned nor should exist in the first place can sweat out the real implications or wallow in the comforts of denial should anything but a crushing Clinton win occur. Forget the magic delegate count if Sanders actually wins the next string of big Dem states. And in NY, if one thing is obvious, there are only Dems and long time registered ones making the decision.
The entire state party and the blocs that "owe" Hillary will churn out their vote. Anything embarrassing to Clinton is either equally a hit against them or the campaign and her party officials can turn on each other for all anyone really cares. The state party status quo depends on low turnout and rousting the GOTV with party apparatus. The polls gladly concur which is why they are shit in a fired up primary.
2008 was very different so the nail-biting went on longer with the magic number game reversed against Hillary. Edwards was out and so was the fire. And so the Clintons chalked up the state again. Over time they assume they own the state. They seem to as far as the not quite popular party officials are concerned.
I am sure different people have vibes depending on who they talk to. I know some major investors, retail clerks, young and old are voting Sanders- with a passion. But the electorate has a dismaying centrist wobble heavily encouraged by the SAD diet of media, corrupt polls, and fear of the nut job GOP. I for one would like to see just how successful the party is in propping up the Hillary numbers this time- and will not rejoice in either outcome. The party has crippled itself for for the wrong candidate and buried its young talent that could have been showcased instead of creeping into the corners of the Clinton administration. This is not the GOP. IF Sanders wins big enough the super-delegate castle will crumble. And many in the party knew this long before the primary season started, thinking they were awarding a safe seat to the runner up of that last contest. How often, especially for the DWS crew, have they ever been right about that presumption?
It seems fairly certain that NY has the potential to be the sharp end of the axe on these issues. I certainly have no expert opinion how it will go.
For something positive, so long as HRC posters have the hives for submitting postmortems, New Yorkers can vote for Hillary in November on the Working Family Party ticket and thus give the finger to the Dem establishment! There is an intriguing way to solve some of the dilemmas. However, if HRC NEEDS my vote then she by the electoral determinism of our lamentable democracy it is irrelevant especially in New York. Also any declaration of mine or even a bunch of posters on DU is also small potatoes except as a bellwether or someplace to try out healing and wooing to see what might actually work. In fact, we might do well to move to helping our chances downticket where the most needed progress languishes in relative obscurity.
Umbral18
(105 posts)and one batty outsider working to stop the madness.