Sanders: Polls understating my support in New York

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/bernie-sanders-criticizes-ny-polls-222074

Bernie Sanders urged caution Monday against interpreting polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton in New York. His argument: We've been here before.

"Those are the public polls. The bottom line is, let's look at the real poll tomorrow," the Vermont senator told NBC's "Today." "Generally speaking, polling has underestimated how we do in elections."

Sanders noted that his campaign was down by as many as 25 points in Michigan before it pulled off the upset victory on March 8.

Internal polls must show a very close race!

[firebrand80]

1. Possible

On the other hand, MI was a dramatic polling failure, and there was a very logical reason why it happened. If you're counting on that to happen in state after state, you're not in a good place.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

3. True, will depend on how the Clinton campaign comes out today...

Although they already claimed before the debate they had a tighter race in internals, and why they were planning to launch a bunch of negative ads over the weekend.

[firebrand80]

4. You can't too much stock into spin

Coming from a campaign about internal polls. Unless they actually show you the numbers, it's all vague suggestions about the state of the race intended to influence the media narrative and turnout their supporters.

If the public polls are universally showing her up 10 - 15 points, the internal polls are likely showing the same thing. If they're showing something different, they're no more likely to be true than any other outlier poll.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

8. You are again making the wrong argument...

Internals tend to be more accurate (notice both campaigns often know it is closer even when public polls don't)

Internals are based on what the campaigns expect the turnout to actually look like. Public polls are based on likely voter turnout models.

There was another OP made here that showed a graph of 120k new Democrats registering right before this primary deadline for new voters. This was close to reaching the general election registration spike for 2014. None of the primaries show a spike at all like this. These new voters would likely not be counted in voter models. I am imagining a lot of these voters will be Sanders since he has way more enthusiasm. There was also a push by the campaign to phonebank prior to the deadline to register new voters.

[Betty Karlson]

9. Except that in state after state, Sanders turned out to overpeform the polls by about 10%.

So at this point, it's not just possible, it's a pattern.

[firebrand80]

31. I think we need to differentiate

Outperforming the polls in lightly polled states, often in low-turnout caucuses, and outperforming the polls in heavily polled, larger states.

Now, if pollsters are missing any voters they are more likely to be Bernie voters, but the polling here shows a consistent, sizable lead. None of the other circumstances that lead to the other polling errors exist here. He might outperform the polls, but thinking he'll do it by 10 points is highly unlikely here.

[Betty Karlson]

44. With just 6 % difference, outperforming the polls by 4 % is enough to win NY.

I'd say he may well outperform the latest polls by such a number, especially since none of the pollsters have bothered to poll the 120,000 new registrations from the last weeks.

[merrily]

2. I hope all the indies, Greens, etc. knew to change their registration before the first Dem debate.

Because that is why DWS let Republicans have all the political oxygen and free newspaper, radio and TV advertising for weeks.

[brooklynite]

22. And the Sanders campaign was unable to notify supporters of the deadline?

I've received three notices from the Clinton campaign telling me when to vote and where my polling place is. Haven't seen anything from Bernie.

[HereSince1628]

45. Some of them probably didn't. I accept that and look forward to the NY results

because they will be a good reflection of the -minimum- vote available to Sanders.

And even at that floor I am expecting Sanders to do rather better than 45%.

This primary cycle has been a real education to 'democrats' about how the organization of primary and caucuses has been structured by politicians to protect the interests of established politicians, rather than to promote influence of the will of the people.

A couple hundred years down the road, our party politics don't much reflect the Enlightenment ideals that birthed democracy of the common man out of monarchies, a notion that prioritizes the will of the people when the people select representatives and hired public administrators are expected to work for the collective good of the people, not merely for the personal gain of the elected.

That the Clintons turned personal celebrity into a behemoth money-making machine is prima facia evidence that our system is corrupted from our own sense of it's great potential.

[KoKo]

51. Tousands of Potential Voters Rushed to Register Ahead of NY Primaries

Droves of Potential Voters Rush To Register Ahead of NY Primaries
More than 20,000 first-time voters have registered ahead of the primaries on April 19
By Melissa Russo

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/NY-Voter-Registration-Deadline-New-York-City-New-York-2016-373561551.html

Thousands of voters went to registration center Friday to beat the deadline for the state's primaries on April 19.

Since January, more than 73,000 people have registered to vote in the city since the start of the year. 63 percent of those voters are new voters under 30, according to city elections officials.

The numbers lend credence to state officials who said earlier this month that there was an "unprecedented surge" of registrations this year, with more than 20,000 first-time registrants.

----------------------

Record Voter Registration for NYS Primaries Ahead of March 25 Cut-Off

An incredible surge of voters have registered with New York State’s online voter registration system, MyDMV, in light of the upcoming presidential primaries on April 19.

Between March 10 and March 20, the online voter registration system has processed more than 40,883 voter applications, including 20,889 first-time voters. New Yorkers must register by March 25 to vote in the upcoming New York primary.

“Our online voter registration portal is key in this administration’s efforts to knock down barriers to democracy and encourage more participation in the electoral process,” Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a statement. “I encourage anyone who needs to register, or update their information, to join the growing number of New Yorkers using this simple and convenient tool to ensure their eligibility to vote in the upcoming presidential primaries.”

Prospective voters can still register to vote if the voter is a citizen of the United States, if they are 18 years of age by Dec. 31, not be in prison or on parole for a felony conviction, not be adjudged mentally incompetent by a court of law, not claim the right to vote elsewhere and the prospective voter must live at their

present address 30 days before the election.http://jpupdates.com/2016/03/22/record-voter-registration-for-nys-primaries-ahead-of-march-25-cut-off/

---------------------


Voter registrations surge ahead of New York primary

April 19 primary spurs major uptick

By Jerry Zremski | News Washington Bureau Chief

on March 24, 2016 - 8:15 PM, updated March 25, 2016 at 11:05 AM

Voter registrations are surging in Erie County in anticipation of the most significant New York presidential primaries in a generation on April 19.

Friday is the last day to register to vote before the primary, and voters can only do that by mail, given that the Erie County Board of Elections is closed for Good Friday.

But as of midday Thursday, Democrats – who long have held a huge registration advantage in the county – had registered 3,345 new voters in the county since Dec. 1 of last year, up from 1,237 from the same period a year earlier. Republicans, meanwhile, registered 1,606 new voters, up from 776 a year earlier.

Leaders from both parties said the surge of registrations is just the first sign of increased interest in the New York primaries, which – for the first time in years – promise to result in meaningful outcomes in the races for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

The primary calendar and the state of the two nomination battles practically guarantee a higher level of interest in the New York races, which, party leaders said, may very well prompt visits to Buffalo by Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton; her rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont; Republican front-runner Donald Trump and other candidates.


http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/washington-politics/voter-registrations-surge-ahead-of-new-york-primary-20160324

[merrily]

53. Only those registering for the first time as NY voters had until March. People

who were registered as voters but not registered Dem had until last October to change registration, a date in October before the first debate, when not many had even
heard of Bernie. It was anticipated that Greens, Indies, etc. would want to switch registrations to vote for him if they heard him.

[KoKo]

55. I know ....its crazy and unfair. But, hopefully

most of those newly registered voters "under 30" will be for Sanders and enthused enough to ignore the polling and turn out. On the opposite side some the Clinton Voters may feel confident that she will sweep the state and find other things to do tomorrow than stand in lines.

[merrily]

62. I decided over a year ago that I was in this past the primary, past the general, and for

as long as I am alive. Since then, my happiness does not depend on primary results. I don't hang on them on the night of a primary--I avoid the updates, etc. I've been really at peace. So far, three Hillary supporters have replied to my posts with "see you Tuesday" or something like that. I look at it and think, "you poor clueless sexist."

[KoKo]

67. Thanks, Merrily

I'm, unfortunately not "at Peace" and focused on NY Primary.

After this ...I might take a Psychic Break to Regroup for later down the road.

Yes...Breaks are Important but, we know what the Goal is.

[merrily]

68. I hope you feel better

[DCBob]

5. Bernie may have forgotten Indies cant vote tomorrow.

Closed primary.. Democrats only... also diverse state. Not Bernie's best scenario.

[merrily]

6. It would be so disgusting for a Democrat or a democrat to revel in that or gloat about it.

[DCBob]

7. Who's reveling??

However, it is curious why Independents assume they have the absolute right to select the Democratic nominee for the Democratic party. If they are so interested they should have joined the party.

[Adrahil]

11. This.

Democrats should select the Democratic nominee.

I work and donate to build the party both locally and nationally. The last thing I want is someone who has done nothing, or worse, constantly bad mouths the party to step in and tell me who our candidate ought to be.

[azurnoir]

19. so you're saying that Bernie supporters are not Democrats?

[Adrahil]

20. They are if they register as Democrats.

Independents are independents.

But if someone registers with the party, that is good enough for me.

[Beowulf]

43. OK

But then don't blame the voters if they don't vote for your selected candidate. Poll after poll has shown which candidate does better with the entire electorate. Select the other candidate and don't be disappointed if you don't get the result you wanted.

[merrily]

25. Perhaps you don't understand how "would" is used? Also, I don't know of any independents who

think what you impute to them. I just know setting the first debate to help make sure Hillary won NY was crap.

[lostnfound]

32. Partly fair but OTOH who pays for NY primaries?

Public money for private purpose.

[DemocracyDirect]

46. They might have joined the party...

... if it's not too hard to join the party when they want to.

You are out of line.

[DCBob]

48. It's very easy to register as a Democrat.

You are out of arguments.

[DemocracyDirect]

49. Whatever.

Fact free argument from you.

[ReRe]

14. No, I heard him say...

... that he was aware of that situation.

This is my beef: the election system in this country is effed up!! All of those rules and laws should be the same in every state. The parties and the media always complains about low turn out after each and every election. If we just cleaned up our election system, sold the damn voting machines back to Diebold and started using paper ballots, gave everyone who registered to vote a voter ID card, have a voter holiday or weekend voting days (Fri-Sun.) This voting dilemma has got to come to an end in this country once and for all.

[merrily]

27. There is what fairness and decency would dictate and then there is what keeps

the PTB of the Republican Party and of the Democratic Party happy.

The latter is how we get Presidential debates that conceal more than they reveal and primary switch deadlines almost a year before the election.

[lostnfound]

40. I actually think some diversity in election systems can be good.

But not 6 month waits and not a shutout of independents based on six month waits.

Caucus vs primary, reasonable benefits depending on the state.

Everything should be voter verifiable, and electronic tallies subject to random audits based on a paper trail.

[Adrahil]

10. I do think it's closer, but....

This will not be a Michigan event. New York is much more predictable because it is a closed primary. Still, I would be surprised if Clinton won by more than 5%, and it wouldn't completely shock me to see Sanders eek out a win. Mathematically, Sanders really needs a big victory which I think there is no chance of. But psychologically even a narrow victory would be "yuge." But even then, it would be a long road. Right now, he needs between 57-58%of the delegates to overtake Clinton in pledged delegates (let's leave the supers out of it for the moment). I think there is NO chance that Sanders wins New York by anything like 57-42, which means no matter what happens, the hill gets steeper. There is also no way he wins PA by that kind of margin. Steeper. And he's almost certain to lose Maryland. Steeper.

Is the road impossible? No. But it is nearly impossible. And that is just to overtake Clinton. To actually take a majority of delegates, add a few percentage points. And this ignores the super delegates. I won't talk about them, other than to say that I think Sanders supporters are kidding themselves if they think the Supers are the way Sanders gets over the top. Triple that if he comes into the convention behind Clinton in pledged delegates.

[Barack_America]

13. He doesn't need a big win in NY.

He needs a big win in CA.

And, yes, I've run the "math".

[Adrahil]

18. If he keeps hitting behind the target mark....

By the time he gets to CA, he'll need to win by better than 60-40. I think that is pretty unlikely. I think he could win in CA. But a big win? Well, I guess we'll see.

[Barack_America]

24. He has hit his mark, or greater in 8 out of the past 9 contests.

He's perfectly on track, for now. He needs to come pretty damned close in NY though.

I admit that.

[Renew Deal]

28. Which one did he miss?

Wyoming?

[Barack_America]

34. Yes. Due to a 12 point win resulting in equal delegates.

Small miss.

[Godhumor]

30. Actually, to be on track to win the nomination, he needs to win NY 55-45

His base target is already a squeaker of a win, and he needs to beat his delegate target by 8% to not fall father behind.

Up to your whether you want to classify a 55-45 win as "big" or not.

[Barack_America]

37. Nope. It just increases his necessary margins in CA and states like PA.

[Jitter65]

69. He may lose PA big. nt

[lostnfound]

42. Thank you for being civil.

It's refreshing to hear an opposing view that doesn't sound like mocking.

[closeupready]

50. Right? Seems like most of her supporters here were amnestied twice

or more due to repeated rudeness leading to 90-day suspensions.

[merrily]

29. Given Hillary represented the state for 8 years and Bernie hasn't been there since his teens,

anything less than a huge win for her of the kind he got in Vermont would be a huge vote of no confidence.

[Adrahil]

33. Spin, spin, spin.

I hope you have a job on a campaign. You know how to play the expectations game for sure.

At this point, it's delegates that count.

[merrily]

35. Which part of my post was wrong?

Your post is analysis; mine is spin. Got it.

[Adrahil]

39. All of it.

I think people like you will manage to interpret any result as a positive for Bernie. After all, even if loses by 20 points, I'm sure we'll here how this great for Bernie because he was down 30 points at some point. Bernmentum!

I think if Hillary wins by less than 5%, it'll be discussed in the news. However, I'd be surprised at this point if she wins by more than 5. But 5 is good enough. She'll get more delegates and his climb is all the steeper.

I do think it would be a big deal if he manages a win, even a squeaker. Then all eyes on PA.

[merrily]

41. That is false. My post was both narrow and factual. And you seem locked in bs ad homs. Have fun.

[Barack_America]

12. Yes. The internal polls must be close to make this statement.

[Demsrule86]

23. Not true

He has also said if he loses, the campaign continues. He has lost unless he takes New York by 20 or more points.

[Barack_America]

38. Ha ha. Your "facts" are hilarious.

[DemocracyDirect]

47. What?

That's the most ridiculous statement I have read here all day.

If he matches 56.5% or better, its a huge win.

[Marr]

58. Absurd-- more like the opposite.

If it's even close in NY, that's horrible for Hillary.

[Adrahil]

36. I saw the interview.

It's possible primate polls are showing him higher, but in the interview I saw, he referenced the fact that polling has understated his support. He doesn't mention that they have understated his support in OPEN primaries and caucuses and been pretty accurate in closed contests.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Very little Early Voting happens in New York

There is "absentee voting" (for those who supposedly will be out of state on election day) but that isn't made easy or widely publicized. Based on past primaries, this favors Sanders who usually does much better with voters who vote on election day vs those who vote early. It makes it much harder for Hillary to "bank" votes in advance, and gives Bernie time to get his message out..

[Jitter65]

70. They have go out of state to have it postmarked out of state. nt

[DrDan]

16. probably true - if the polls were based on potential voters -

like those who potentially could have voted had they registered

[hellofromreddit]

17. The polls in NY so far have all been "Likely Voters"

Polls of "Registered Voters" have been closer this election. Lots of unlikely voters showing up and voting for Bernie.

[brooklynite]

21. Right...Tad Devine all but admitted they wouldn't win a week ago.

[pdsimdars]

26. And one thing to keep in mind, Bernie usually gets it right.

There's a lot of action and noise around the elections, but Bernie usually makes a simple statement about where he thinks it is going and he has usually gotten it right. So if he feels confident about this, I don't doubt him.

[MisterP]

54. right--he's honest, and wouldn't fudge his reputation with constant promises of victory

[Trust Buster]

52. Is this the same guy that is always points to hypothetical presidential matchup polls 5 months out ?

Integrity and consistency are not just words.

[Marr]

56. If there's ever a time to be skeptical of polling data and predictions, it's now.

There's a lot riding on this one.

[MadBadger]

57. I think polls could also be overstating his support as well

I think that a lot of young voters may not be thinking about the tough NY registration rules, and are not actually eligible to vote in the primary.

[workinclasszero]

59. Internal polls equals fantasy

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

60. Sure counted for something in Michigan... Where both campaigns said it was tighter than public polls

And again both campaigns have said it is tighter in NY based on internals. Beneson HRC surrogate was saying so in the pre-debate roundtable on CNN.

[workinclasszero]

61. Open primary vs Closed primary

See how that works out for Bernie tomorrow.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

63. I am sure that internal polls factor in only those who can vote

[workinclasszero]

64. We will know tomorrow

[Orsino]

65. Well, polls are an old-fashioned measure of support, depending on implementation.

They would probably not do a great job of measuring support for a new sort of campaign such as Sanders is running, for which support is growing rapidly. I think?

But we'll see. Perhaps we'll find that the polls did well.

[pnwmom]

66. Michigan had wild cards that New York does not have.

The pollsters were having to make their projections based on a previous election with a very low turnout. And the primary was open, so anyone could vote in it.

Not only is the New York primary closed, but voters had to affiliate as Dems by last October. And there is no same-day registration. So there won't be any last minute surge of Indie voters.