I think Hillary is headed to a landslide in NY.

[hrmjustin]

From my and other canvassing of Brooklyn and this city and state I think Hillary is on target to get close to 60% of the vote in NY. I think at this point the only borough that is competitive is Manhattan. The other 4 are firmly in Hillary's camp. Long Island which has a huge amount of voters also trending heavily towards Clinton. Most if not all of the immediate suburban counties above NYC should also be in Hillary's corner. Dutchess, Putnam, Ulster, and Sullivan maybe battles and Sanders might take one or two but Hillary will hold her own there.

Hillary will do well in the smaller cities upstate. Sanders will do well in rural counties and college towns. In the end I expect Hillary and Sanders to tie the upstate region and Hillary to overwhelm the southern tier.

Brooklyn will be 65% for Hillary. Large rallies are nice but NYers are used to seeing rallies all the time. Yes these were impressive but rallies don't win elections in NY.

Tomorrow will be the big push and I expect to be out at 6 am.

[rock]

1. So unless Bernie can get

About 60% to Hillary's 65%, he's going to be crushed! (You do realize I'm using Sanders math don't you?)

[LenaBaby61]

2. Will definitely be watching from So Cal....

Should be exciting....

Looking for a great victory for Hillary tomorrow

[Bonobo]

3. Posting for later reference. nt

[Skwmom]

4. There is a reason only certain polling places are open an extra 6 hours and they are trying to

disenfranchise voters.

[Codeine]

25. Ffs, those rules have been in place forever.

Nobody cried about them before. The Obama campaign accepted them.

[George II]

46. No. Polling times have been the same for years. I think the last time they changed...

...was 1998, and only for a few counties.

[CrowCityDem]

5. No evidence to support this, just my feeling...

but I'm going to predict 56-44. 60% sounds too high to me, even here. It's hard to judge, though, since internet fervor makes it hard to judge how many are on either side.

[Buzz Clik]

36. I've got it 54-46, Clinton.

[AgingAmerican]

6. You said the same thing about Michigan

You also said it would be over after Iowa and that he peaked in September

[Buzz Clik]

33. ... and you said Bernie was winning. He had all the momentum and would be the nominee.

Well?

[AgingAmerican]

45. She has been steadily decelerating

And he has been accelerating.

[Buzz Clik]

47. Let's talk on May 1.

[AgingAmerican]

52. Matters not

She will continue decelerating whether she wins or loses the nomination.

[Buzz Clik]

53. She's all in on this one. If she loses, she becomes irrelevant.

[R B Garr]

7. Awesome, Justin! I've appreciated all your posts on your NY work.

I heard California polls are solidifying, too. While waiting in line to try and get into Hillary's rally on Saturday at the Los Angeles Southwest College, I heard a lot of conversations from REAL Democrats, millennials included, and they were very level-headed and committed in their support for Hillary. There are obviously more real Democrats who are firmly supporting Hillary than the social media attention seekers suggests. Just look at the popular vote.

At Saturday's rally, I didn't hear too many people openly denigrating Bernie like you see from the EXTREME Hillary haters here who engage in nonstop viciousness about her. A couple people couldn't stand Bernie and were loud and vocal about the lack of vetting Bernie has gotten by with. Lots of conversations about how Hillary has stood up to the GOP for 25 years; whereas, Bernie is unproven. Lots of comments that he hasn't accomplished much over a long political career. Some of the younger people, the millennials, were saying that they haven't heard a politician yet who they agreed with every single point they made, but Hillary was the most comprehensively realistic candidate.

Thanks for your updates about New York. That New York Daily News interview of Bernie really opened eyes about his lack of preparedness, so I've been impressed with the level of sophistication coming from New York.

Also, hearing Bernie talk glowingly about New York after he left so young and never came back is a little odd. I'm sure native New Yorkers have taken note of that. I even heard him say he preferred the rural life, so he obviously wasn't happy in NY, which is not a good thing to share. Hillary loves New York!

[apcalc]

9. Appreciate all the

Comments from you folks on the ground.

[TheCowsCameHome]

10. Bookmarked

[bigtree]

11. k&r

[DCBob]

12. Great news!

Good luck tomorrow!

[GreatGazoo]

13. She will win incomes over $100K (again)

but she ain't winning upstate. She does well with comfortable people who watch lots of TV news.

I have not seen one Hillary sign or bumpersticker in my county. I don't even know if there are bumperstickers for Hillary.

[geek tragedy]

16. too bad NYC metro has about twice as many Democrats as upstate does nt

[Bluenorthwest]

20. And NYC metro tend to turnout in less numbers than the rest of the State.....

NY has some of the lowest turnout in the country and NYC turnout is even lower than that of the State, 2014 NY had 29% turnout while in NY City it was just 20%. They had tons of Democrats in 2014 as well. They just did not show up. This is repeated in all of the last several cycles and it should be all any NY Democrat is talking about all year until they fix it.

I hope your turnout is up. 2014 NY had the lowest turnout of any Blue State, Indiana and Texas has lower turnout, that's it. Bottom three.

[The Old Lie]

14. It'll be a landslide all right

Last edited Mon Apr 18, 2016, 11:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Just not the way you want it.

Feel the BERN.

[hrmjustin]

15. No thank you!

[geek tragedy]

21. this is really creepy nt

[Codeine]

26. That. . . that really isn't helping you, bro.

Tonedeaf much?

[Buzz Clik]

34. Not doubt. Bernie will be taking NY with 60% of the vote.

You putting money down on that?

[The Old Lie]

37. Sure. $200 to the respective campaigns.

Done deal? I get the Bernie win, you get the Hillary win.

[Buzz Clik]

39. The win or Bernie with 60%?

[The Old Lie]

41. The win

[Buzz Clik]

42. Sure. You give $200 to Hillary if she wins the popular vote in NY; if give $200 to Bernie if he wins

Verification? Or is this a gentleman's bet?

[The Old Lie]

50. You give $200 to bernie if he wins.

And yes, it'll be a gentleman's bet with verification after the results of the New York primary.

[KingFlorez]

17. I think that will be the result

The numbers will not be in the single digits.

[Bluenorthwest]

18. How do you think turnout will be? NY State had the third worst in the country in 2014 and NY City

turnout was about 20%, nearly 10% lower than the State overall which was as I said, very low. This low turnout and voter apathy has been a regular feature of the last few cycles in the Empire State. Oregon's 2014 turnout was double that of NY. Double.

Also I wonder how long it has been since you or the other City NYers have been to say, Sullivan County? I sure don't see it as suburban in Sullivan, it's Catskills, rural and about 70 people to the square mile.....

[hrmjustin]

19. I was in Sullivan county four weeks ago. I think that county will be a battle.

Turnout will likely be 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 people.

[Bluenorthwest]

23. So you know it is not suburban. 2.5 million voters would be low turnout.....

NY State and City have big election problems that are not candidate specific and are ongoing and worsening.....

http://www.gothamgazette.com/index.php/government/5432-forty-years-of-freefall-in-new-york-voter-turnout

[hrmjustin]

24. Sulivan is still considered by many here to be a part of the southern tier but you are right that

they would disagree.

Ny has always been a mess. We need automatic voter registration.

[Bluenorthwest]

32. Southern Tier does not mean suburban. Bordering PA, west of Catskills...the part of PA opposite is

'Northern Tier PA' and they are the 'twin Tiers'. It's the country, it's beautiful and I have been schooled by Sullivan/Broome County mavens for years. A friend writes on a paper there. I agree it will be close in that region.

I don't expect landslide for either candidate, Hillary probably will win but not by the margins she's like. But either way if NY manages to have decent turnout then the NY Primary is a success no matter who wins it, if the turnout is low it's not, again no matter who wins. It pains me that NY votes in such low numbers. I love your State and have big, public relationship with NY, most people in the world think I am a NYer, from NY City. I have friends and family in every corner, I've spent much time and done much work in NY, from Buffalo to Battery Park.

And calling NY elections is impossible for me. Impossible. I know it better than any State other than CA and Oregon yet I can't even start to predict outcomes. I do better with places I barely know.

[workinclasszero]

22. "I think Hillary is on target to get close to 60% of the vote in NY"

From your lips to God's ears!

[Recursion]

27. I'd give him decent odds in Richmond County

Though obviously the City will be weaker for him compared to upstate.

[hrmjustin]

28. No. Most of the Dem vote comes from Northern SI and that is a more diverse area.

[Recursion]

29. Honestly I haven't been to SI in about 20 years

So I'm probably going with an outdated image of it in my head.

[geek tragedy]

30. Shao Lin is a weird place. McMansions, forests, geographically part of NJ nt

[BeyondGeography]

31. The two counties I know will probably split, but the big one (Westchester) will go decisively to HRC

It's really her home turf, after all, and more conservative, like most burbs (only moreso).

Bernie will do well in Columbia County upstate, which is very small. He has a lot of enthusiasm in the town of Hudson, which is the only town in the county. He should do well in most of the counties that went for Teachout, but that's not where the population is.

[geek tragedy]

35. He could be President for Life in Tompkins county nt

[BeyondGeography]

40. Lol...he is a God in Hudson

A God, i tell you.

[geek tragedy]

43. Nah, Ithaca called dibs on him.

they may put his face on their local currency (yes that is a thing)

[Goblinmonger]

38. Bookmarked for a return tomorrow.

[geek tragedy]

44. you promising to show up in this thread no matter what? nt

[Goblinmonger]

49. If she wins. Congrats to her.

This is a big one, for sure.

[Marr]

48. Bookmarking. /nt

[randr]

51. A few months back that would have been the case

Her dwindling numbers are reason to worry how well she may perform with the nomination.

[democrattotheend]

54. I canvassed Long Island for Bernie this past weekend

A rich town on the North Shore that should have been heavily for Clinton, but I found that it was about evenly split, maybe a slight edge for Clinton at best.

I expect her to win NY but I don't think she will get 60%.