2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Campaign Update (Historical Advantages from the Beginning, But A Very Tight Race Now)
Look at the size of Hillary's historically record setting endorsement lead:
(This graph is a bit out of date as it shows Hillary's advantage heading into the Iowa caucus, and this graph omits several recent Sanders endorsements, but it generally shows the size of Hillary's advantage at the outset).
Given this historically large advantage among the establishment wing of the party, a healthy candidate would have capitalized on this advantage to have locked this election away months ago.
Obviously, the race is not locked away. Here is a graph of all of the Ipsos/Reuters national polls:
Here is a graph of all of the McClatchy/Marist polling:
Here is a graph of the Bloomberg/Selzer polling:
This should be a huge concern. Hillary's weakness is not without explanation. Here are graphs of her favorable vs. unfavorable ratings and her trustworthy rating AMONG DEMOCRATS (and bear in mind almost no independents or moderate Republicans like or trust Hillary):
DOES ANYONE REALLY BELIEVE WE COULD NOMINATE A HISTORICALLY DISLIKED AND DISTRUSTED CANDIDATE WITHOUT THERE BEING CONSEQUENCES IN THE GENERAL ELECTION?
HILLARY HAS BATTLED FROM A HISTORICALLY LARGE ADVANTAGE TO A CURRENT TIE IN THE POLLING, AND HER CAMPAIGN NEVER PREDICTED THIS - WHAT HAS THIS CAMPAIGN DONE TO ASSURE YOU THAT HER CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE GENERAL ELECTION IS NOT EQUALLY UNJUSTIFIED?
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
Vote2016 This message was self-deleted by its author.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)feels about her, there are really only two possibilities -- either (1) she is a much weaker candidate with a much narrower appeal than the establishment presumes or (2) she is selling a platform that appeals to the establishment but is very unappealing to the grassroots.
Some of both factors are in play.