538: Why Sanders Does Better With Independents

[hack89]

So why is Sanders doing so well among independents? It appears to be driven not by their ideology so much as their dislike of partisan politics. And that has implications for Sanders’s prospects in the upcoming primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Maryland, all of which are closed to non-Democrats. Understanding why Sanders does so well among independents in the Democratic primaries can also give us hints about his appeal to moderate voters should he make it to the general election.

First, though, it is critical to understand the voters who call themselves independents. For one thing, independents are Americans who are less excited to acknowledge a connection to the two major parties. As a recent book by political scientists Samara Klar and Yanna Krupnikov shows, Americans identify as independents partly to distance themselves from the negative connotations of partisanship. Given the political rancor of recent years, it’s no surprise that the share of Americans identifying as “independent” has been at or near its all-time highs.

Still, not all independents are alike. To understand why, let’s take a brief detour into how partisan identification is commonly measured. Pollsters typically ask two questions to assess partisanship. They first ask if a voter would call herself a Democrat, Republican or independent. For those who pick one of the major parties, a follow-up question then asks whether the voter would say her connection to the party is “strong” or “weak.” For those who don’t initially pick a party, pollsters then ask if they lean toward one of the parties. As political scientists have long known, a sizable number of voters who initially term themselves “independents” are still willing to say that they are closer to one of those two parties. And those “closet partisans” tend to vote a lot like their counterparts who more quickly affiliate with one of the parties. In the most recent Gallup poll, 38 percent of respondents termed themselves “independents” at first. But when pushed, just 8 percent of all respondents were unwilling to admit an affinity for one of the two parties.

In part, Sanders’s support among independent leaners is a product of the demographics of his coalition generally. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, the independent leaners are more likely to be male, white and higher-income — and at the same time, they have less positive views of President Obama.3 In short, the demographics and attitudes that tend to predict being an independent who leans Democratic are those that predict Sanders support.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-sanders-does-better-with-independents/

We hear a lot about what the Independents will or will not do in the general election. Here is an excellent 538 article that adds a lot of detail and nuance to the discussion.

[Stallion]

1. Yep Good Article-Obama Critics=Bernie Sanders Supporters

"Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, the independent leaners are more likely to be male, white and higher-income — and at the same time, they have less positive views of President Obama In short, the demographics and attitudes that tend to predict being an independent who leans Democratic are those that predict Sanders support."


because they really aren't Democrats at all

[pnwmom]

2. The base of the Dem party is women and minorities. He does better among white men. nt