Why a Michigan style upset is highly unlikely. Two words:

[pnwmom]

closed primary.

In Michigan, Hillary won Democrats by an 18% margin. Bernie carried the state because of his strength among Independents.

But in New York, the primary is closed to Independents, unless they switched to Democrat by last October. Newly registered voters may participate but the deadline was almost a month ago -- no same day registration.

[silvershadow]

1. With this NY race being this tight, this close...it is a loss for Hillary, no matter how it turns

out.

[pnwmom]

2. LOLOLOL. Her target to stay on track for the nomination, according to 538, is less than half

of the delegates. 122 out of 125.

Everything after that is icing on the cake. And there will be plenty.

[silvershadow]

4. I know, isn't that pathetic, especially for a woman of her stature? She should be killing it!

Instead she is limping to convention.

[pnwmom]

7. She is killing it. The 122 number is far below what she will achieve. n/t

[Hortensis]

14. Yes, she's pathetic. Silver, if she wins by more than 10 points,

even though Sanders will add dozens of delegates to his count, he will then have to win 70% of all remaining races to win, up from whatever it is now, 68%?

You might want to start looking to how WE, the Democrats, win the GE and win big. Bernie already is. The forces massed on the right intend to make all federal government progressive actions, including such things as Social Security, unconstitutional. They really could do that because the next president will in all likelihood name another 2 or 3 justices to SCOTUS, more if the next president also filled the seat Scalia's death opened.

[silvershadow]

16. Yep. When they both hit convention in a virtual tie, and Hillary loses on the first ballot,

then the delegates will have to make a very smart decision. Hopefully they understand that concept. I'd hate to think we blew it on a previous primary loser.

[pnwmom]

31. Those delegates will understand that Hillary has millions of more votes than Bernie

and their delegates count won't even be close to a tie.

[Codeine]

37. Virtual tie?

She'll have an enormous lead and will win the first vote.

[silvershadow]

41. Enormous lead? says who? They will at least be in a virtual tie, if he hasn't overtaken her.

Check back with me after a few more primaries.

[Codeine]

83. Bookmarking. nt

[SFnomad]

46. Don't worry, BS is going to know what it feels like to be a primary loser n/t

[silvershadow]

51. If he does, the Hilary hasn't listened to the polls and she will go on to know what it feels like

to lose not only a primary, but also a general election, and our party will be trashed and in ruins. The party elite have been warned in every way possible. They are welcome to suit themselves.

[SFnomad]

66. Secretary Clinton has a better chance of winning the General than BS does

BS has never been torn from limb to limb by the right wingnut scorched Earth machine ... his poll numbers will take a hit and I don't believe BS is up to the task. Secretary Clinton is the best candidate to handle their assault ... she has seen firsthand what they can do for 20+ years.

[Blue Meany]

81. Not really. The Republican voter suppression efforts have worked in her favor in the primaries,

because they tended to impede newer, younger voters, who voted strongly with Bernie. And Bernie has not been attacking her the way her attack team (David Brock, Blue Nation, Correct the Record, etc). has gone after him. I said from the beginning, and I still believe, that if had gone negative he would have been winning. She has many, many, vulnerabilities in her record, particularly in her record as Secretary of State, which has never been vetted in a national campaign. But when you combine these with what was already known (but largely forgotten) about her earlier, years, it will be pretty easy to portray a cold, calculating, unprincipled careerist who talks like a progressive but governs very differently. I'm afraid the negative ads write themselves and I am convinced that she will win the primary and lose the general election mainly because Bernie wants to campaign on current issues.

[SFnomad]

84. Voter suppression efforts? Really? That explains Maricopa County, AZ ... but that's about it.

And if BS has run such a poor campaign that it isn't resonating with the voters, that's not Secretary Clinton's fault. And being down by 2+ million votes shows that BS isn't resonating with the voters.

The rest of your blather really sounds like something you'd more likely hear coming from Free Republic or Red State.

It's really too bad you'd rather #BernDownTheHouse, instead of beating the Republicans.

[brooklynite]

59. That makes no sense at all...

ALL delegates (pledges and Super) vote at the same time; there are only two candidate, so one candidate wins and it's over.

[silvershadow]

73. If they don't pick Bernie, is certainly IS all over. nt

[Hortensis]

85. Yes, that's it. Hillary loses on the first ballot

at the convention. Apparently you've internalized the fantasies of Cruz supporters, or is it the Kochs' and the 700+ megamillionaires and billionaires associated with them?

[silvershadow]

86. No I am tired. Feel free to hang your political hopes and hat on that mistake if you'd like.

PS: Lawsuit filed over shenanigans in NY today.

[LiberalFighter]

44. Target means what is needed to get the overall win.

As each election is completed the target number goes up or down based on what is needed. Clinton has overperformed by 7%.

[silvershadow]

47. And still she will go on to lose, either at convention, or before, as I have stated. That's my

opinon. If I am wrong about that, I guarantee she will go on to lose the general. The Republicans and the various mafia they represent, will see to that. Oh, and the wheels fell of the bus months ago now. Even if she wins NY, it will be by the narrowest of margins, a sad statement for their most recent former Senator. On to PA. and CA. and everywhere else. On to convention, just as Bernie has stated from the very beginning. We are in it to win it.

[Squinch]

49. You guys are so cute!

[brooklynite]

57. 10-15% is "tight"?

[silvershadow]

61. We will soon know the real figures. In a matter of hours. nt

[leftynyc]

62. LOL - You are delusional

It's BERNIE that needs to win NY and win it BIG (along with the rest of the states - most of which have closed primaries). You do get delegate math, don't you? Perhaps not given your delusion on this thread.

[NurseJackie]

3. I think it's a good thing that PARTY MEMBERS get to be the ones to decide ...

... their party's nominee. That's the way it should be, and in NY, that's just the way it is.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

5. The "party"?

That sounds like the ideals of Nationalism...

[msongs]

19. so why are you on DemocraticUnderground, a site dedicated to getting democrats elected.

not fake democrats, phoney democrats, not cult followers who think the democratically created policies don't apply to them?

[AgingAmerican]

22. Third way Democrats are all of the above

[Zen Democrat]

82. Bernie is a New Dealer. Hillary is a Third Wayer.

Bernie is True Blue. Hillary is Fuzzy Purple.

Ever since George & Barbara referred to her as a "daughter-in-law" - and Henry Kissinger clasped her to his breast - I recognized she's no REAL Democrat. Not a Democrat like my parents and grandparents supported.

[silvershadow]

63. You mean the elite insiders with cushy jobs, and the lobbyists? I'd rather the nominee

be the person with the best chance to win against the general opponent. In this case, that is overwhelmingly Bernie, based on polling. By a mile. And then some. Besides, Hillary is going backwards. We are going forward, as a united Democratic party which includes the FDR/Labor Democrats that were here eons before Hillary was a Democrat. She is the interloper in the party. The fly in the ointment, if you will.

[global1]

6. Sounds Like You're Proud That The Dem Party....

is disenfranchising NY voters.

[pnwmom]

9. Anyone proud of Bernie's performance in the caucuses was proud of a system

purposely set up to cause voter suppression. In my state of WA, for example, we didn't even meet the record set in 2008 -- 5.3% voter participation.

[azurnoir]

11. How is allowing greater voter participation voter suppression?

seems like the system that Hillary is so very dependent on to win is suppressing votes

[LonePirate]

12. Caucuses are not very voter friendly and they prevent more people from voting than primaries do.

[azurnoir]

13. do they now

[LonePirate]

21. Yes, caucuses suppress more votes than primaries do.

You need to be at a specific - typically not your normal polling place - at a specific time for a specific duration of time. Unlike in a primary, I can show up at my usual location or the county office and vote when I want and I only need a few minutes (not a few hours) of my time. Caucuses are the absolute worst when it comes to increasing voter turnout rates.

[azurnoir]

23. easily done the times and places are listed online in my case the polling place was a couple

of blocks from my house

[LonePirate]

33. Your special case is not the norm as not everyone shares that convenience.

Caucuses are simply horrible methods for the public to cast their votes.

[azurnoir]

35. okay if you say so

strange that you cheer limiting voter access by party membership

[LonePirate]

43. Because it is a private organization doing the nominating. Do you want to take away their choice?

For the record, this proudly registered Democrat supports the elimination of party primaries and throwing everybody - Democrats, Republicans, Greens, Independents, etc. into a primary and the letting the top two candidates square off in the general. Everybody can vote in this primary as it is not restricted to a party. It's funny how all of the Independent Bernie voters don't seem to give a damn about this, though. Then again, I don't support voter suppressing caucuses like they do.

[azurnoir]

50. so your saying my state took away the Democratic parties choice

[LonePirate]

60. I'm saying it is the state party's choice.

If the state party wants a caucus, then that is their choice even if I don't like it. If the state party wants a closed primary, then it is their choice even if you don't like it.

Closed primaries at least serve a hypothetical purpose by preventing outside interference. Let's say primaries were open and any voter from any party could vote in it. Let's say the Republican primary only had one candidate due to the race being decided weeks ago. What is stopping all of those Republicans and right leaning Independents from swarming the Democratic primary and choosing the worst possible candidate or choosing someone not even running for the party nomination? Closed primaries prevent those types of events. It's like insurance.

[azurnoir]

71. not to worry Bernie seems to winning in closed states too

Closed Primaries
Eleven states operate closed primary elections or caucuses. In either case, only voters who are registered as members of a political party prior to the primary date may participate in the nomination process for its candidates.
Proponents say that closed systems contribute to a strong party organization. Opponents note that independent or unaffiliated voters are excluded from the process.

Delaware
Maine
New York
Florida
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Kansas
New Jersey
Wyoming
Kentucky
New Mexico

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx

[pnwmom]

15. They make the process so long and onerous that very few people will go through with it.

In our state 3 times as many people vote in the Democratic primary even though it's only a beauty contest -- all the delegates are assigned in the caucuses.

There are MANY people prevented from voting in caucuses. In my state, this included:

students who go to college out of state (no absentee ballots allowed for them)

people in rural areas who live hours away from their nearest caucus

people who don't have child care and don't want to bring their children with them

people who want a secret ballot and don't want to have to discuss politics with relatives or neighbors or employers

people who don't like crowds

people who aren't disabled but don't have the stamina or inclination for spending several hours in a gym debating about politics

and many others.

By comparison, to vote in the primary here, all you have to do is return your mail-in ballot. Couldn't be simpler.

[azurnoir]

17. worked just fine in my state and Bernie won quite handily

[pnwmom]

20. What state are you in and what percent of registered voters participated?

Your system didn't work "just fine" for the vast majority of voters who didn't participate.

[azurnoir]

36. Minnesota any other questions

[pnwmom]

40. Then your state had an 8.2% participation rate in your caucus.

Better than WA but pathetic compared to primary states.

Here is a list by primary year and state.

http://www.electproject.org/2016P

[azurnoir]

48. ah ha like closed primary Kansas where 5.5% of voters turned out

[pnwmom]

52. LOL. Kansas is a CAUCUS state. Another caucus state with a pathetic turnout. nt

[Bluenorthwest]

56. Your State is a Caucus State because your State Democratic Party sued the State to allow it.

Isn't that the case? And Bernie won it. Oregon is a closed Primary thank you and Bernie will win that too.

But I agree that caucuses are a rotten idea. You being a member of a State Democratic Party that favors the caucus are in a stronger position than most to address that issue. You should do so.

[azurnoir]

67. nice try no go here's a list and it seems Bernie's winning closed states too

making me go hmmmm about these claims

Closed Primaries
Eleven states operate closed primary elections or caucuses. In either case, only voters who are registered as members of a political party prior to the primary date may participate in the nomination process for its candidates.
Proponents say that closed systems contribute to a strong party organization. Opponents note that independent or unaffiliated voters are excluded from the process.

Delaware
Maine
New York
Florida
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Kansas
New Jersey
Wyoming
Kentucky
New Mexico

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx

[pnwmom]

74. Nice try? Kansas is a caucus state. You goofed. Admit it.

And I don't know what the point is of your list. Several of them are in states that haven't even voted yet, so Bernie can't be said to be "winning them." And he didn't win Florida or Nevada -- Hillary did.

[azurnoir]

77. No I figured out what;s going on New York and Kansas are on the same list

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx

and Hillary's win in Nevada had a bit disingenuous help from someone who tweeted a lie about Sanders campaign and then walked it back-after the voting was over of course-heard this same person did something similar to Barack Obama in 2008

[ismnotwasm]

27. Wasn't that disgusting?

Sanders won overwelmingly there, but damn--the "army of millions" STILL isn't showing up. And yes, caucuses are horrible.

[LonePirate]

10. Nobody is being disenfranchised.

Political parties are semi-private organizations which have the barest minimum of entry requirements simply sign up to be a member and you can participate. It's no different than being required to register before you can vote. Ignorance of the New York law is no excuse to shout voter disenfranchisement.

[pnwmom]

18. Exactly. Anyone can become a Democrat by just signing up to be one. But many people

like the idea of not being associated with a party.

[silvershadow]

70. Bernie isn't an insider, and has denounced disenfranchisement his entire life.

you're laying the blame at the wrong candidates feet.

[Waiting For Everyman]

24. Three words for HRC's side: low early voting. nt

[pnwmom]

25. They'll have plenty of absentee voters, like they always do. And many of them

will be older voters, voting for Hillary.

And they've had their ballots for a month now.

http://vote.nyc.ny.us/html/voters/absentee.shtml

There are two options for New York City voters wishing to cast absentee ballots:

Voting in person at your Board of Elections office in your borough
By mail.

IN-PERSON ABSENTEE VOTING

Absentee voting in person begins as soon as the ballots are available (at least 32 days before an election) and ends on Election Day.

In person absentee voting is conducted during the above period, at the Board of Elections' Borough Offices. The hours are 9:00AM to 5:00PM and on Election Day until 9:00PM. Monday through Friday and on the weekend prior to Election Day.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

26. Why the democratic part of Democratic Party is false advertising...same two words.

[pnwmom]

28. Anyone can be a Democrat. You just have to be willing to put your name on a form.

Many of Bernie's people are not.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

30. In Washington we don't register by party.

So, here, I'm Democrat if I say I am. No forms involved. No loyalty oaths. No nose holding.

[pnwmom]

32. If you're talking about the state, I live there, too. And the caucus system is horrendous.

Far less inclusive than any primary. In 2008 we set an all time record for attendance: 5.3% of voters.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

34. So...open primaires would be better. Right?

Certainly more democratic.

[pnwmom]

42. That's what I voted for in WA. But it was tossed out by the courts. I'd prefer a closed primary

to the caucuses, however -- by far.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

45. Well, we sort of agree. But, I'd prefer open because it's more democratic.

[R B Garr]

29. Michigan ran out of ballots in a heavy Clinton county.

That was one of the first things I heard out of Michigan on the day of that primary. I'm not going to point fingers, though. The results are what they are.

edit: I think you're right about New York.

[Armstead]

38. I'm so glad voter access is no longer an issue the Democrats give a damn about

I remember those days long ago -- Before Hillary's latest primary bid -- when Democrats thought open elections and voters rights and accessible voting were good things.

Ah nostalgia.

[pnwmom]

53. Well, we know Bernie supporters don't care since they LOVE the vote-suppressing caucuses. n/t

[Armstead]

55. You want to change the caucus system? I'm all for that.

Your turn.

[Bluenorthwest]

58. pnwmom is in Washington, where they have a caucus because the State Democratic Party sued the

State to be allowed a caucus. So. She's in a good position to talk. She could also spend energy opposing her State's own caucus system more effectively than those of us in other States.

[pnwmom]

75. I have been pushing to end caucuses FOR YEARS -- ever since a judge overruled

our state's voter-approved referendum setting up a primary.

And I began talking about caucuses even before they began this year, warning people they would be messy and non-inclusive.

But most Bernie people defend them.

[Armstead]

79. Most Bernie people are being opportunistic...Take victories anyway they can

I won't dispute that.

It's a two way street.

But the wallowing in things like a primary where you have to know who want well in advance to register and make your choice is undemocratic.

Ought to fix the damn system without the vested interests of which candidates one supports in the equation.

[cherokeeprogressive]

39. Two alternative words...

Withheld information.

I bet you and all the rest of Hillary's sycophants were giggling like schoolchildren back in Oct when the deadline passed without a mention.

[leftynyc]

69. It was mentioned PLENTY in NY

And if you want to vote, at least look up the damn rules in your state and quit whining when you're ignorant of them. Am I supposed to see some vast conspiracy because it wasn't reported in every local paper in the country?

[Bluenorthwest]

76. Forty Years of Freefall in New York Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in New York State is in freefall. Last week's gubernatorial election saw the smallest number of voters make it to the polls in the four decades since the state Board of Elections was formed and began tracking voting. Few reports have noted the extent of the decline: Cuomo's 52.5 percent of the vote on election night may have seemed like the typical erosion of an incumbent's margin - down from 61 percent in 2010 - but it obscures a fall of nearly one million votes.

"New York has always been lousy," says New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG) legislative director Blair Horner. "It's getting worse."

It's especially acute in New York City. Mayor Bill de Blasio's landslide victory a year ago came without the participation of many voters of cycles past. While de Blasio racked up more votes than his predecessor did in any of his three elections, the turnout for mayoral contests has steadily declined since 2001, now hovering at just over 1.1 million voters.
http://www.gothamgazette.com/index.php/government/5432-forty-years-of-freefall-in-new-york-voter-turnout

It's an odd thing to be proud of.....

[leftynyc]

78. What are you babbling about?

Proud of knowing the rules of my state primaries? WTF does voter turnout have to do with knowing the primary rules? Oh - you're moving the goalposts and changing the subject. Imagine my surprise.

[cherokeeprogressive]

87. Nerve. Struck. Mmm hmmm.

[leftynyc]

88. LOL

You wish. See ya at the convention.

[Buzz Clik]

54. The pollsters have the open primaries figured out, too.

[silvershadow]

65. .

[Buzz Clik]

68. I already have a $200 bet with another poster here. You want in?

[joshcryer]

80. Is there a link?

Or is it a private bet?

[LisaM]

64. Michigan also supposedly had Dems crossing over to vote against Trump (I don't support doing this).

By one estimate, this was up to 7% of Hillary voters, though I think that figure is high. The parties both held open primaries on the same day, though, so the potential for criss-crossing and mischief was quite high.

It was especially unfortunate to my mind because of the real-time issues in Flint (water system) and Detroit (public schools). I think it's absolutely frivolous to play around with your vote while people less than an hour away can't even drink their water. But these are the times we live in.

[Bluenorthwest]

72. NY has notoriously sickly turnout and we should all of us hope that is not the case this time.

2014 they were just under 29%, NYC 20%. NY is odd in that voter registration rates are good but participation is very low for all manner of elections and offices and in both Parties. It's not really something they should be super proud of.