Nate Silver - Sanders wins those caucus states extremely white and therefore poorly representative

[factfinder_77]

nate silvers review of the numbers are quite stunning.

And the sort of wishful thinking Sanders is engaged in can cut both ways. Yes, Clinton’s lead would be considerably narrower (although she’d still be winning) without delegates from the Deep South. But what if you excluded delegates from caucuses, where Sanders has gained a net of 150 delegates on Clinton? Without those delegates, Sanders couldn’t even maintain the pretense of a competitive race. Not only are most of those caucus states extremely white and therefore poorly representative of Democrats’ national demographics — many of them (such as Idaho and Nebraska) are also quite red. Furthermore, caucuses tend to disenfranchise voters by making it harder to vote. Our demographic modeling suggests that this has hurt Clinton and that Sanders wouldn’t have won by the same enormous margins if those caucus states had held primaries instead.

But overall, the math is pretty simple. Sanders is winning states that are much whiter than the Democratic electorate as a whole, Clinton is winning states that are much blacker than the Democratic electorate as a whole, and Clinton is winning most of those states that are somewhere in the middle, whether they’re in the South (like Virginia) or elsewhere (like Ohio or Nevada). That’s why she’ll probably be the Democratic nominee

“Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it,” Bernie Sanders said during Thursday night’s Democratic debate in Brooklyn. “That is the most conservative part of this great country,” he continued. “But you know what, we’re out of the Deep South now. And we’re moving up.”

I have a few problems with this line of argument, which seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South don’t reflect the larger Democratic electorate. (The remarks Thursday night echo previous comments made by Sanders and his campaign.) Consider Sanders’s reference to the term “Deep South,” which traditionally describes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina: These are five of the only six states, along with Maryland, where at least a quarter of the population is black. Given the United States’ history of disenfranchising black voters — not to mention the importance of black voters to Democrats in November — it’s dicey for Sanders to diminish Clinton’s wins there.

But the Deep South isn’t Sanders’s only issue. His problems in the rest of the South are what really dooms him. Clinton’s largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South as the Census Bureau (and most other people) define it. Clinton also cleaned Sanders’s clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region
In addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. They’re diverse ideologically — Miami and Austin aren’t exactly “the most conservative part” of the country — and they’re diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.

In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/

[northernsouthern]

1. So you just made our states in the NW white again?

Good to know that two of the MOST diverse states are once more white. Also nice to know the states with the HIGHEST voter turn out are not representing, while the states with the record lowest turn out are better? Find another record to play, this one is getting old.

[hack89]

3. Washington state is 77% white

it is not one of the most diverse states in America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Breakdown_by_state.2Fterritory

[Bluenorthwest]

8. And the US as a whole is 77.4% white.

Much more accurate, useful and adaptable demographic tool at US Census
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00,53

[hack89]

11. Just pointing out that there are a lot of states more diverse than Washington. nt

[northernsouthern]

14. No you are just wrong.

In the simplest break down of demographics Washington was more diverse that 28 other states if I recall correctly. Plus Washington is steadily changing. But hey good for you in whitewashing us. Oh and thanks for white washing all non-whites since the polls show Asians support Bernie along with other groups. But you knew that already.

[factfinder_77]

12. actually not - Democratic white vote will be 54 percent.- black 24 , hispanic 15, aian and other 7

Although it will be a couple of decades before the electorate as a whole is majority-minority, the Democratic vote is already getting there. In 2012, only 55 percent of President Obama’s voters were white, according to the national exit poll. Our demographic projections of this November’s electorate, which account for population growth since 2012, calculate that the white share of the Democratic vote will tick down another percentage point, to 54 percent. The rest of the Democratic vote will be black (24 percent), Hispanic (15 percent), or belong to Asian or other races (7 percent), according to our projections.

So let’s take those projections as being maximally representative of the broader Democratic electorate as it stands today. In which primary or caucus states has turnout come closest to those ratios?

In 21 states to have voted so far, we have data on this from exit polls. See here for Virginia, for example, where Democratic turnout was 63 percent white, 26 percent black, 7 percent Hispanic and 5 percent Asian or other when it voted on Super Tuesday. That’s pretty close to the Democratic electorate overall, although with too few Hispanic voters. In the other 29 states — those that haven’t voted yet or where no exit poll was conducted — I’ll estimate the Democratic electorate based on our demographic projections, with an adjustment for the fact that the Democrats who vote in primaries are somewhat whiter than those who vote in November.1

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/

[northernsouthern]

18. Not sure where you are getting this data from.

You are quoting numbers from the General election, which are not relevant to the primary, as has been stated many times. As for the percentages, I have found little luck on voter demographics so far due to poor data. All I have found is total turn out, and the south excluding Florida had record low turn out compared to the last primary in 2012. Democratic membership has fallen in the south, and republican has risen. If you have a demographic breakdown for which person they voted for and the number of votes that group cast it would be nice. I wanted to see some for the chart I was making trying to include as much data as possible, but Arkansas for example just give a percentage of total black population that is eligible to vote, a percentage that are in that said group that are registers, and a percentage that voted. Sadly a good amount of it was estimates.

[angrychair]

21. Wow, thanks

It also has the 3rd highest Asian population in the nation and 18 highest Hispanic population.

[factfinder_77]

7. Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/


. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008.

[roguevalley]

13. Fuck Silver. Just fuck him. I'm sick of my state not being 'diverse enough'. These idiots call

Hawaii white too.

[Art_from_Ark]

23. It gets really old after a while, doesn't it?

And Colorado and Oklahoma, which were won by Bernie, are more diverse than Arkansas and Tennessee.

[DetroitSocialist83]

2. Yay! More white people bashing

Good luck in the general!

[hack89]

4. Race is a critical factor in the primary

and a critical factor as to why Bernie is losing. It bodes well for the general that Hillary has the ability to connect with a diverse electorate, especially in battle ground states.

[Sheepshank]

6. Right after Bernie is South and by default black bashing

The optics on his derogatory comments on the Southern States voting habits, has doomed his candidacy.

[Bluenorthwest]

9. So are you just white or are you super white? White and Straight or Super White and Super Staight?

nt

[northernsouthern]

15. Hey could you remind me ...

Where were the states mentioned in this video on the KKK again? Is Mississippi and Virginia?

[NurseJackie]

20. Bashing? Really? How so?

[dsc]

22. yeah poor white people

we just never catch a break. We never got our choice of President, no wait we got 43 straight. We never got to vote, no wait we voted from the very beginning. We are the poorest demographic, no wait, we aren't any such thing.

[Armstead]

5. Race,race,race,race,race,race,race,race,race.....

race,race,race,race,race......


True economic and social justice? Not so much.

[VulgarPoet]

10. So how the fuck is this any different than the "confederate state" horseshit?

[ibegurpard]

16. It's not

But the narrative fits the Clinton campaign tactic of racial division.

[GreatGazoo]

17. Any exceptuion to a theory disproves the theory

unless you are a partisan hack I guess.

[Blue Meany]

19. And I thought that it was because there were not voting machines involved in caucuses...n/t

[jfern]

24. Hawaii is extremely white now?