Chris Matthews: "I think Sanders is going to overtake Hillary in the national numbers,

[k8conant]

unless he takes a crushing defeat in New York tomorrow. If he has a competitive race tomorrow in New York, I think he'll continue to be in the passing lane and be ahead of her by next week. That's my hunch."
MSNBC 4:20 pm 4/18/16


To think that Tweety is saying this!

[Bjornsdotter]

1. Just because this pic never gets old

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

[roguevalley]

26. he already has, 50-48. I love his oblivious oblivion

[onehandle]

2. National numbers at this point have nothing to do with the primary or the GE.

Literally counting your chickens before they hatch.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. But they do. February victories have nothing to do with the GE....

if a candidate has lost his/her mojo by the time the GE comes around, you damn well better believe that has meaning. That is why conventions are late in the summer.

[Demsrule86]

35. Really?

Keep dreaming...Sanders is out...I sincerely hope she trounces him tomorrow so you guys have to see the math.

[Joe the Revelator]

36. What an awesome and well thought out rebuttal.

[berniepdx420]

3. wtf... tweety... he's been such a shill for the clintons... why would he be saying these things ?

[geek tragedy]

4. Clinton lead Obama in national polls in May. Means nothing when most states have already voted.

He sure as shit isn't going to be ahead in NY tomorrow.

[k8conant]

7. Then, why does Hillary tout her 2.5 million vote lead

and not realized that if Bernie pulls ahead nationally that means he'll be up 3 million in the part of the country that hasn't voted yet?

[geek tragedy]

9. #berniemath

the national numbers include states that have already voted. He should be ahead by 5 points if those national numbers are correct.

I'm guessing no.

[k8conant]

20. That doesn't make sense.

[geek tragedy]

21. national polls include states that haven't voted as well as states that have voted.

polls of people in states that have already voted measure nothing of relevance

[k8conant]

23. I'd think that polling results from the states that've already voted would be included in the

national polls.

[geek tragedy]

25. no, the results aren't included, they call people from those states

and talk to them like a regular poll

[beedle]

32. Then they're not "National' numbers

Do you have a link to this information?

[bbrady42]

22. You do know the difference between polls and votes, right? n/t

[k8conant]

24. Of course, I do.

Do you? Does Hillary?

[GreatGazoo]

13. In May of 2008?

Looks like he has her in March and never loses the lead.

[geek tragedy]

15. yes, right where the purple and green lines briefly cross.

After the beating Sanders takes tomorrow, those numbers will diverge again.


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic

[karynnj]

33. Not really - here are the results from many pollsters

While you can find an occasional April poll where HRC is ahead by a point, there are MANY where Obama is ahead. You need to go back to January/February to find her consistenly ahead. Only if you were cherry picking would you say that HRC was ahead in May. http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

One different you can point to is that even if Sanders consistently started to poll ahead by 4 or 5 points, it would likely not matter because Clinton is in the neighborhood of 200 pledged delegates ahead.

So, even if there were a seismic shift, it would still be tough for Sanders to beat her on pledged delegates. There is NO WAY the superdelegates would give the nomination to Sanders if she is still ahead on pledged delegates - especially as more than half of them personally favor her. Where would be on shakier ground is if I said that the supersdelegates would give her a nomination if the extremely unlikely case that he won the pledged delegates -- but I actually believe that they would not do that. (If you think of it, given where they started and the media and party support that she has, if he pulled that off it means that at least one of these two things is true - 1) she is a weaker candidate than anyone expected and 2) he has something going for him.

Now - note the numbers of ifs here -- I am not saying that Sanders will suddenly consistently win national polls -- or gain the very high number of delegates he needs. I think that is pretty unlikely, but if all those ifs happened he would be the most unlikely nominee that Democrats ever had -- and a part of me would wonder if it was not just a "not Hillary" choice.

[geek tragedy]

34. worth noting that he hasn't passed her in the national polling.

one place 'momentum' may show up is in national polling numbers--but it's illusory.

To put it another way, if there were really a seismic shift going on, we'd expect Sanders to be ahead in NY.

[karynnj]

37. Even if there were several national polls where he had caught up, it is likely too late

unless he were to pull far ahead. Look at the 2007/2008 polls. They crossed soon after voting started -- and Iowa moved faster than the country to Obama. If that curve had been "delayed" even one month, She likely would have won even against Obama.

[Cali_Democrat]

6. The problem is that so many states have already voted up to this point....

...and Hillary is leading in states like New York, Pennsylvania,, Maryland and California.

It won't make much of a difference.

It's not a national primary where everyone votes on the same day.

[Crabby Abbey]

12. There was a post here on DU saying the national polling for NY was crooked.

They apparently only polled those areas of NY where she did really well against Obama. Lopsided polling could make one think it will match lopsided results if electronic voting machines that don't have a paper trail are being used . . .

[Cali_Democrat]

17. Well, we'll find out tomorrow if the polls are accurate.

That's why they play the game.

[ViseGrip]

8. He says this because several polls already show that, the rest in the margin.

Bernie is going to win!

[Skwmom]

10. He's trying to drum up the Hillary vote. n/t

[GreatGazoo]

11. Any quote from Chris Matthews should be written in all caps and run together.

Matthews: "ITHINKSANDERSISGOINGTOOVERTAKEHILLARYINTHENATIONALNUMBERS..."

A Chris Matthews interview:

CM: HOW DOES WINNING 8 IN A ROW HELP SANDERS?

Answer: Well it certainly cuts into...

CM: BUT SHE IS STILL AHEAD IN DELEGATES AND...

[Waiting For Everyman]

14. He has already passed her

because polls are always low on including cell phones (young voters) and Independents.

[amborin]

16. yes, Bernie pulled ahead

[anotherproletariat]

18. MSNBC has clearly taken a turn today in trying to keep this race alive.

They started out very pro-Sanders back in the fall because they wanted a horse race. Since the primaries began they made a clear shift toward Hillary, and now they know if she does really well tomorrow the race will be all but over. So back to Sanders they go.

[Robbins]

27. are you f-ing kidding me

MSnbc has never been pro-bernie.ever since they fired ed schultz every host has been pro-clinton and mocking and dismissing bernie.They are more pro-clinton than CNN.

[anotherproletariat]

28. While cussing only reflects badly on you...I will say that from my view, Maddow was running many

positive Sanders stories prior to her first interview with Hillary. Then suddenly she seemed to changed tone. I noticed this about many of the anchors there...except Hayes (my friend all call him the boy Rachel Maddow), he has always seemed very pro-Sanders.

[Robbins]

29. maddow is not pro-bernie

that has been clear for quite so time.she is tool of clinton campagin as it much of msnbc.ever since ed schultz was fired no one there is pro-bernie.

[anotherproletariat]

30. That is what I said...I thought she was prior to her first Hillary interview,

then she clearly shifted the way she reported on Hillary's campaign. I still think Hayes prefers Sanders.

[anotherproletariat]

31. With that said...watch tonight - I bet they'll both look pro-Sanders...

they have to keep the race going.

[passiveporcupine]

19. This is a surprise coming from him