Clinton Is Winning The States That Look Like The Democratic Party

[Beacool]

By Nate Silver
April 15, 2016

“Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it,” Bernie Sanders said during Thursday night’s Democratic debate in Brooklyn. “That is the most conservative part of this great country,” he continued. “But you know what, we’re out of the Deep South now. And we’re moving up.”

I have a few problems with this line of argument, which seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South don’t reflect the larger Democratic electorate. (The remarks Thursday night echo previous comments made by Sanders and his campaign.) Consider Sanders’s reference to the term “Deep South,” which traditionally describes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina: These are five of the only six states, along with Maryland, where at least a quarter of the population is black. Given the United States’ history of disenfranchising black voters — not to mention the importance of black voters to Democrats in November — it’s dicey for Sanders to diminish Clinton’s wins there.

But the Deep South isn’t Sanders’s only issue. His problems in the rest of the South are what really dooms him. Clinton’s largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South as the Census Bureau (and most other people) define it. Clinton also cleaned Sanders’s clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region.

n addition to being important to the Democratic Party’s electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. They’re diverse ideologically — Miami and Austin aren’t exactly “the most conservative part” of the country — and they’re diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.

In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/

Democrats dismiss these states at their peril.

[oldandhappy]

1. so, the democratic party is red and conservative??!!

She is winning the conservative side. No doubt about that. Just confused with the headline. Anyway, glad for Bernie that his clock is clean.

[Beacool]

2. He was dismissive of those states.

He must have forgotten that some of the states he won are also red states, such as Alaska and Oklahoma.

[Demsrule86]

6. Sure

RED conservative and white both Alaska and Oklahoma...Hillary won the minority vote as well as white democratic vote in the south looks like the Dems party in terms of racial makeup.

[arely staircase]

3. Only as much as all those African Americans who make up the party in the south. nt

[AgingAmerican]

4. The deep south looks like the Democratic party?

Could have fooled me...

[Cassiopeia]

5. The deep south looks like the Democratic party?

Yeah, I guess that's why it's considered a dem stronghold with strong Democratic representation holding office.

[lumberjack_jeff]

7. What were y'all saying? Something about math?

The opinions of Texas democrats are immaterial to the general election. On account of the fact that they are a small minority.

We need to capture swing states, and I don't see any advantage for Hillary in that regard.