RAND Poll: Obama +5.9%, Leads 50.56% to 44.64%

[Zynx]

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast

The really important chart here that I want to call attention to is the "Shifts between candidates" metric:

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#shifts-between-candidates

What it shows is that Romney first peeled away some weak Obama support during the Republican Convention, then Obama just owned Romney's face between the Democratic Convention and the end of September. This was aided by the 47% comments. Then Romney started peeling away Obama's support in relatively modest chunks as a result of the first debate and kept that trend in place until this last week where Obama has once again been picking up votes from Romney.

The reason why this one is particularly important is that, as far as I have been able to determine, it is the single best indicator of what the other polls are going to start reflecting soon.

[Cosmocat]

1. That absolutely has been the ebb and flow

of the last month. And, I think we are very likely are about to see a clear, not massive, but clear uptick back up for the President.

The first debate was Rmoney's high point.

[geckosfeet]

7. Yep. I agree the first debate was a high water mark for him. He managed not to commit

any major gaffes for about an hour. It was entirely scripted and left very few opportunities for him to screw up.

But in the following weeks the campaign continued and the gaffes started coming out with re-assuring regularity. Cue the pro-rape republicans and embarrassing campaign moments where he actually has to pretend to interact with other human beings for example.

Barring any major international or economic incidents it will be slow steady increase in numbers for president Obama.

[Cosmocat]

13. lol

he has had an absolutely BIZARRE number of gaffes.

He has had about two dozen gaffes that would have ended the political career of any democrat.

Agree, barring any major incidents, the President should see a clear, not massive, but clear margin develop in the next week.

GDP numbers for third quarter are pretty darn good

[TroyD]

2. Nate Silver also has Obama at 50%, but

Has Romney at about 48-49%.

What's the likelihood that Romney would finish as low as 45%? That would be below the level of support McCain got in 2008. That seems out of whack with current projections

[Zynx]

3. Well, if you ignore the undecideds or allocate them evenly

you get Obama at about 52% and Romney in the 47-48% range. I think that's a pretty likely outcome, honestly.

[TroyD]

5. If the Obama vote is greater than that showing in some of the current National polls

It's hard to know what the popular vote will be because Romney is doing well enough that some people are talking about him winning the popular vote, and Nate Silver shows Obama with a narrow lead.

On the other hand, some of the Latino polling organizations said this week that the English pollsters may be underestimating Obama's vote by a couple of points because many of them do not do interviews in Spanish or know how to properly contact Latino voters.

So I think the final popular vote tally will remain more of a mystery than the Electoral College outcome, yes?

By that I mean, at this point in time, it's much easier to predict that Obama will win the Electoral College by say 270-300 EV than it is to know what the popular vote will be.

[HereSince1628]

6. It's harder to imagine undecideds than uncertain about turning out...

And I think turnout can be significantly impacted by a variety of things that can pop up.

The aftermath of next week's east coast weather could be such a phenomenon.

[speedoo]

4. Obama is at his highest point.

If anyone has momentum, I think I know who it is.

[TexasCPA]

8. RAND Poll

My guess is that people involved in the RAND poll are going to pay be more attention to the election just because they are part of this group. They feel an additional obligation to follow it. That causes this poll to be skewed by current election events . The general population is not paying as much attention to the election.

[On the Road]

11. You Might be Right

I really like the panel approach, but a preselected panel makes the results subject to the Hawthorne Effect.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_effect

The question is whether in this case, the effect of being studied has a systematic bias towards either party. Or, as you suggest, whether it merely amplifies the results because the group is more attuned to the issues.

[berni_mccoy]

14. Informed voters and voters that pay more attention to the election are more likely to vote.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. From your words to God's ear!!

[Haywood Brothers]

10. Rand is solid

The Rand people have solid methodology and a well-deserved reputation.

[Tenleytown]

12. I used to work at a well-known NY private foundation

and we funded several RAND studies and surveys on urban public education. They are an excellent think tank and do very good work. Think Ph.d wonks...

[DallasNE]

15. This Poll Goes Counter To What We Have Been Hearing

On enthusiasm for the two candidates. Crowd size is also a counter argument. So, how does one know what to believe when MSM has a vested interest in the horse-race aspect? Do you go with what you are hearing or what you are seeing.

[fugop]

16. Just ignore anything with likely voter screens.

Seriously. I think the likely voter screens are going to be completely invalidated by this election. Will it be close? Yes. But will Obama win in the swing states? Yes.

I'm done with national polls and particularly done with likely voter screens. I think by filtering out all the newly registered voters, they're going to find they missed the mark by a mile.

[OhioworkingDem]

19. How do you know they are filtering out newly registered voters?

If they are I agree with you. i do think the likely voters screens appear to be biased against the dems. In many of these polls you see a 5 pt or greater gap in LV vs. Rv. I do not believe the enthusiasm gap is that great.

[Dawson Leery]

17. k/r

[amborin]

18. K&R

[RoadRunner]

20. 47%

My prediction is that mitt will end up with exactly 47% of the popular vote. There are 47% of the population that will never vote Democratic. They think they are victims of the liberal media, that they're entitled to their fantasies, and they will never take responsibility for getting themselves out of the RW bubble. 47%, that's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.

[jenmito]

21. You beat me to it. This shows Romney's "Big Mo'"...

downhill!

[budkin]

22. Yaaay!