So here is the argument from my dyed in the wool Republican friend:

[abumbyanyothername]

I can't vouch for his data -- but he is simply a banking business/chamber of commerce republican:

Here is the historical data on party affiliation, voter enthusiasm, and turnout.

2004 ELECTION

2004 Party Affiliation
Democrats 39%
Republicans 37%
Democrats +2%

2004 Enthusiasm Gap
Democrats 67%
Republicans 68%
Democrats -1%

2004 Turnout
Democrats 37%
Republicans 37%
EVEN

Observation: Turnout in 2004 was identical at 37% for each party. While Democrats had a slight advantage in party affiliation they had a slight disadvantage in enthusiasm but basically those two items washed out.

2008 ELECTION

2008 Party Affiliation
Democrats 41%
Republicans 33%
Democrats +9%

2008 Enthusiasm Gap
Democrats 61%
Republicans 42%
Democrats 19%

2008 Turnout
Democrats 39%
Republicans 32%
Democrats +7%

Observation: Democrats saw substantial turnout benefit (7%) given that they had a 9% lead in party affiliation and a 19% lead in enthusiasm.

2012 ELECTION

2012 Party Affiliation
Democrats 34%
Republicans 37%
Republicans +3%

2012 Enthusiasm Gap
Democrats 48%
Republicans 64%
Republicans +16%

This time, Republicans have a slight lead in party affiliation 3% and huge lead in enthusiasm 16%. This would suggest that they will actually beat Democrats in turnout like the Democrats did in the 2008 election, but probably not by the 7% that the Democrats saw... Maybe something more like 4%

[Tansy_Gold]

1. The correct phrase is "dyed in the wool" n/t

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. or rather ...

"DIED in the wool ..."

[xfundy]

20. And even--

"LIED in the wool..."

[Liberal Veteran]

2. Lanolin allergies can be fatal.

[MatthewStLouis]

19. Ha ha. Wool's pretty scratchy too!

[longship]

3. How in the Sam Hell do you measure enthusiasm?

Especially before the election! I guess we'll know it after the fact, but how do you do it before?

Sounds like woo-woo to me.

[faithfulcitizen]

22. exactly... this seems silly to me.

I see some awfully enthused democrats!

[Myrina]

4. How can the GOP have an enthusiasm ++

When Robme is the least-liked GOP nominee in history?

[abumbyanyothername]

6. I don't know

I don't know where he gets his data from. And until the betting sites start to show a shift, I think I'll rest comfortably. Just looking for someone to give me a few zingers to poke holes in this.

[progressivebydesign]

26. then perhaps you shouldn't post it here if you don't know where it's from.

Otherwise, it's useless. Could have come from Glen Beck for all we know. Unless you're wiling to find out where it came from and the methodology, I don't really see the point of posting it here. It's ridiculous.

[kysrsoze]

8. The morons would all get in line behind Genghis Khan if he was the nominee. They're brain-dead.

[Cosmocat]

25. The enthusiam of being against something

which is often stronger than being FOR something.

They hate this president with a passion almost to a man and women.

Ds range from liking this president a lot, to liking him, to being OK with him, to not being too into him but not wanting Romney to win.

It IS a factor, but overall, this is something the Rs are advancing to keep their hopes up.

The polling people and as someone else noted, the betting markets, factor this in.

[madamesilverspurs]

5. Chamber of Commerce.

Nuff sed.


-

[RomneyLies]

7. your friend got his numbers from the unskew guy nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Tell Your Friend That Republicans Have Never Comprised A Larger Share Of The Electorate Than Dems

Tell your friend that Republicans have never comprised a larger share of the electorate in a presidential election since Calvin Coolidge ran for president.

[Dem2TheCore]

10. Tell your friend

Numbers pulled from your ass stink!

[democrat_patriot]

11. I would have to say There is no entusiasm gap on the Dem side.

Know anyone that actually likes Romney?

I don't, they just hate Obama. That's not enthusiasm.

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. Yup ...

And further, I can't think of a single gopper (not even the one's posting to on-line forums) that LIKES their gop House or Senate candidate ... they just hate Pelosi, Reid and President Obama.

I strongly suspect that this gop "enthusiam" narrative is just that an "Up is Down; War is Peace" narrative, put out by the gop and repeated on an endless loop by the media.

[Proud Public Servant]

14. His party affiliation numbers

are from Rasmussen, which may be the only pollster that shows a GOP advantage in that category. Gallup has 32% Dem - 28% GOP for the same period, while Pew has 35% Dem - 28% GOP.

[CJCRANE]

15. Ask your friend: where's the link?

Where is this data from? Who was sampled / When was it sampled etc etc?

Without a link the data no more reliable than a chain email.

[abumbyanyothername]

17. He actually is a friend

so I am not going to start a FB flame war over this.

He hasn't taken me up on my friendly offer to book all his betting action on this election so somehow I don't think he even convinces himself.

[CJCRANE]

21. That's fair enough...

but I think he's practicing the RW "perception is reality" mantra.

In my experience RWers think that if enough people believe something then it might as well be true (even if it is wrong or inaccurate).

[GreenPartyVoter]

16. Bull-puckey. If there was ever a year we lefty voters were enthusiastic, it was 2004 and getting rid

of **.

[pointsoflight]

18. Problem is, there's no basis for assuming better turnout for Romney supporters in swing states.

Look at registrations in the swing states. Look at early voting in the swing states. Look at the ground support in the swing states. Look at the rapidly changing demographics, which favor Obama, in some of those swing states.

[faithfulcitizen]

23. I think your friend put this fairytale on paper so he could sleep at night.

Just my opinion.

[progressivebydesign]

24. Sorry. but the election hasn't happened yet. Who the fuck measure "enthusiasm????"

The numbers are meaningless. You can't compare an election that hasn't happened yet, to those other ones.

I do NOT buy the enthusiasm gap bullshit this year.

[beac]

27. Show your banking business/chamber of commerce republican friend THIS:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2012/10/10/want-a-better-economy-history-says-vote-democrat/

His argument is based on impossible-to-measure "enthusiasm". The arguments in the article are based on concrete FACTS. Including these:

• Corporate profits have risen under Obama more than any other president
• The stock market has soared 14.72%/year under Obama, second only to Clinton —

Then, ask him why he's "enthusiastic" about the party that is WORSE for the economy throughout history and especially now:

• The (GOP) platform is the inverse of what has actually worked to stimulate economic growth
• The recommended platform tax policy is bad for velocity, and will stagnate the economy
• Repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) will have a negative economic impact because it will force non-wealthy individuals to spend a higher percentage of income on health care rather than expansionary products and services
• Economic disaster happens in America when wealth is concentrated at the top, and we are at an all time high for wealth concentration. There is nothing in the platform which addresses this issue.”