2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPerhaps it was not the debate
Like many, I was dismayed by the President's performance during the first debate and the surge of favorite view of Romney. It would be tragic, I thought, if Obama would lose because of his performance.
But now I realize that even a stellar performance would not have changed the tie that all the polls report. Yes, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. This is a given.
But it is clear now that too many voters really were not going to vote for Obama, for different reasons, including the delusional continuation of the Civil War.
And Romney "civilized" appearance in the debate, his mater use of the "etch a sketch" gave them the reason, the excuse, to vote for him. Even if they dislike his "moderate" stand - for now, they hope - they are comfortable with his new attraction to moderate and women.
I think that it is really up to the young college and recent graduate voters. They need to realize that even if they are disillusioned with Obama, the alternative would be a disaster. Even if suburban women think that, hey, they will always be able to get an abortion and birth control pills, they should be alarmed by the opinions publicly presented and embraced. Same for their husbands. Once they realize the the Republicans mean what they say, it may be too late.
question everything
(47,521 posts)Seems that Obama had a comfortable margin in Iowa, Colorado and Florida. Now they are gone. NPR actually mentioned Romney leading in Iowa.
And on one of the News programs a businessman from Ohio, in the auto industry, is grateful for the bailout but... is going to vote for Romney because he is a "business man."
So I don't know, I don't understand what is going on.
As for Sununu, MASH's Hawkeye Pierce phrase comes to mind: what a piece of drek.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)Arrest him now
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Have you not seen today's state polls showing Obama ahead in virtually every swing state?
question everything
(47,521 posts)saying Iowa ahead, and saw Chuck Todd on NBC news moving states around with a possible outcome of 269-269.
I hope you are right.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Why are you taking NPR's report As valid?
Ebadlun
(336 posts)Sure, the performance wasn't classic Obama, but how many swing voters even remember it now? There wasn't a Mourdock-style epic gaffe to put people off forever.
Romney was coming out of an atrocious couple of months, and for most of October, the time when people start paying attention, he and Ryan have actually managed to avoid saying or doing anything really stupid, whilst looking (to casual observers) like the sober, unthreatening moderate people vaguely thought he was before the primaries.
I think the bounce was mostly due to him being able to steady the ship of his campaign somewhat.
question everything
(47,521 posts)My trust in fellow votes is deteriorating. Well, has been in 2004 and 2010 but now..
ncav53
(168 posts)The race was always going tighten after the debate, the challenger sharing the stage with the incumbent improves his image. Obama is still leading in Ohio, Nevada and Wisconisn, those three states put him at 271 minimum.