North Carolina Early voting Data ( Looks very promising)

[MyNameIsKhan]

Early vote data is here:

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

Total early votes in 2012 till date: 1164655
Total early votes in 2008 as of today: 953760
Additional votes in 2012: 210895 ( 22% more )

Now lets check Dem counties:

Mecklenburg county 2012 : 120587 ( 919k total population 2010 census, 400k votes in 2008 )
Mecklenburg county 2008 : 85276 ( Pres Obama votes in 2008: 62% )

Wake county 2012 : 101449 (900k total population 2010 census, 430k votes in 2008 )
Wake county 2008 : 77467 ( Pres Obama votes in 2008: 57% )

Durham County 2012 : 45886 ( 267k total population 2010 cencus, 134k votes in 2008 )
Durham County 2008 : 41534 ( Pres Obama votes in 2008: 76%)

2010 Demographics
Whites: 60.4%
African Americans: 21.5%
Hispanics: 8.4%
Asians: 2.2%
Others: 7%

Based on 2010 census AA population increase is 17.9% and Hispanics increase was 111%.

With above data Pres Obama is running about 1-2% above his total 2008 lead. Election is close but with this momemtum I see him winning by 50k-100k votes.

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. Let's hope this is a good predictor. I got a call from OFA last night to remind me to early vote.

Me and a couple of friends plan to make a day of it on Wednesday. Voting, shopping, lunching!

[kansasobama]

2. Hope NC provides the perfect upset on Nov 6

Whole world says NC is in Republican column. Boy, would be nice to prove them wrong

[JoePhilly]

3. Hope you are right. I'm one of those votes in Wake County.

[struggle4progress]

4. Now, listen to Jimmy!

[ibleedblue]

5. My wife and I

added two votes to the blue column on Wednesday! We're in Johnston County, beside Wake County, and this is repubville. I think NC will be blue yet again, but JoCo is most definitely red.

[onenote]

6. There are a few statistics in there that trouble me

The main one is that number of Democrats casting early ballots has fallen sharply from nearly 56% this time four years ago t just over 50 percent now; repub early voting has climbed from 27.24 percent to 30.75 percent. Also, the percentage of women and African Americans casting early ballots are down slightly compared to 2008. None of those are good trends and in a state that President Obama won in 2008 by only 14,000 votes, they have be concerned that while it still may be close, we are not doing as well as four years ago.

[MyNameIsKhan]

7. Yes but there is a silver lining

Overall early vote has increased 22% (ofcourse both D and R's are voting). Looking at Dem's friendly counties the increase is 36%. This means Dem counties are voting more than overall increase. Based on these numbers, the projections are Pres Obama at 24k more votes than 2008.

[geek tragedy]

8. The key question is cannibalization, i.e. how many early voters are those

who would not ordinarily vote vs how many would have been guaranteed to vote on election day.

[MyNameIsKhan]

9. Yes correct but again a week of so with additional data we can get to this more accurately

BTW Obama team has great Ground operation, they exactly know who are new voters and who are the ones who would have voted anyhow on the election day. The point is Pres Obama has demographic advantage, if we can get same number of D voters as 2008, the difference will be covered by demographics. There has been overall 18.5% year over year population growth. Assuming that with total 4.12Million 2008 votes will translate into approx 4.88Million 2012 votes. Which has 60% demographic advantage built for Pres Obama. I never said NC will not done deal, its going to be very close, but trends look awesome. Its going to be clear mid next week.