FivethirtyEight forecast for Obama up again: 74.4%

[brooklynite]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

[HERVEPA]

1. Yowza! (nt)

Nate seems to be updating a little more often these days.

[abumbyanyothername]

2. Obama 4:1 favorite in the Nowcast. nt.

[RomneyLies]

3. Nate has always been making my evenings.

[gademocrat7]

4. Forward!

[blazeKing]

5. Nate is a real pro at this numbers stuff

Even when he had Obama losing ground I still never lost any admiration for him ... he just punches the numbers in to a formula and he's damn good at making all these formulas and simulations.

[John2]

8. Silver

His formulas is crap. In again this fool gives credit to the phony from Gravis Marketing by sticking Kaplam's sample into the North Carolina Polls. Silver has no creditability by continuing to credit this phony. The North Carolina Polling has no credibility whatsoever. I challenge Silver to investigate Kaplan's firm.

[blazeKing]

10. Has he explained why? /nt

[John2]

15. People

have complained time amd time again to Mr Silver but he keeps ignoring the background of Doug Kaplan. Silver is nothing but an assessory to Doug Kaplan's fraud. The last four Polls showed North Carolina being very close. This is the second time Kaplan has place a questionable poll into the North Carolina samples. The last time he did it had Romney up by nine. This time it is by 8 with no other Poll showing it no different than 3. It is not the only state readers have complained about Doug Kaplan's Polls. This so called firm Gravis Marketing needs to be thoroughly investigated by somebody. I would like to know how many employees this guy supposedly have and if he is really calling people. I believe his numbers are phony and the people polled are probably ficticious. I don't believe he called over 1700 people in North Carolina either. I dare someone to check him out. I think he is a fraud and maybe just using fancy advertising to look legitimate. It is very easy to check this out to stop the complaints.

[Maximumnegro]

18. The truth will out. If NC goes blue

Nate and everyone else who used Gravis will have to explain themselves. I bet they won't make the same mistake again after they get an earful.

[hlthe2b]

6. I think Nate knows the RW propaganda (assisted by MSM) is pushing some progressives over the edge

I think he's trying to keep us off the proverbial "ledge"...

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. Wait, you think his numbers have some purpose other than reporting the objective state of the race?

That's weird.

[hlthe2b]

14. No... I think that is why he is updating so frequently...

Get a grip...please

[BainsBane]

17. No, he updates when polls warrant a change

Silver is a honest broker. If he weren't, his forecast would be useless.

[hlthe2b]

19. Enough... Stop trying to start an argument where none exists.

Geebus...

[BainsBane]

21. How is that trying to start an argument?

I am simply pointing out that Nate Silver's purpose is to provide the best statistical information he can, not make Democrats feel better. If he did anything else, his model wouldn't have value. He updates more often now because there are more polls coming in every day than a few weeks ago.

[oldhippydude]

7. i am not resting well until we hit 80+ like we were before 1st debate..n/t

[Obamamama44]

9. This number keeps ticking up! Nt

[amborin]

11. WONDERFUL!

[Lone_Star_Dem]

12. I'm so glad we like Nate again.

I think he's doing what he does best, with what he has to work with.

Oh, and suck on that 74.4% you're going to LOSE Romney voters.

[jumptheshadow]

22. LOL, that's exactly what I thought when I read the title (nt)

[Lakerstan]

16. Does anyone know why Nate uses "Mr. Obama" and "Mr. Romney"

instead of their titles?

Just a little nit-picky, I guess..

[StrongBad]

20. He's following NYT protocol.

Historically, when referring to the president in an article, the NYT says "President X" the first time in the article and then "Mr. X" for all subsequent mentions.

Same thing with Governor, etc...

[cheezmaka]

23. Up, Up, and Away!!!!

(from the White House) "Welcome back, Mr. President!"