WSJ etc

[BelieveMe3]

If you go to RCP and you read some of the right wing stuff-like WSJ articles, etc. they are as convinced that Obama is losing as we are he's winning. And what makes me uneasy is the national polling. Yes we are ahead in the states that matter, but Romney is also ahead in many national polls are never before. They say it's US in the bubble not them. That we are in denial.

What say you guys?

[imgbitepolitic]

1. Well

Im going to trust the most accurate prediction market for 3 previous elections. Per Ethans' post on Intrade


"Iowa Electronic Market (smaller version of Intrade), has two markets - Winner Take All and Vote Share

The vote share market is remarkably interesting since it expires solely based on the final tally of the popular vote. Let's say you buy $4.7 for Romney yet he wins 51% popular vote, you actually make 40 cents per share.

Let's look at previous results of IEM Vote share for Democrats in 2000, 2004 and 2008 in final day of prediction

2000:
Gore :48.4% (Actual: 48.4%) – Error: 0%

2004:
Kerry: 48% (Actual 48.3%) - Error: -0.3%

2008:
Obama: 51.6% (Actual: 52.9%) – Error: -1.3%

Mean absolute error: 0.5%

If anything, they tend to underestimate Democrats candidate and never the opposite. Their error is eerily so small that makes you wonder ...

Where is it predicting Obama now? 52%

As far as I understand, there is no single pollster could yield the predictive value of IEM for three elections in a row.

*Link to IEM: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html"

[moobu2]

5. What if IEM just got lucky on those 3 elections though?

Just kidding with you.

[abbyg8r]

2. The bubble

Well, I guess all the statisticians are living in a bubble too. Of course the right wing publications are going to say Romney is inevitable.

[smorkingapple]

3. Their editorial Wed morning 11/7 should be epic

They just keep relying on these LV models which will be shown to be completely inaccurate and underpolling minority groups.

I see some major hand wringing by the pollsters and the Republicans the day after. They'll need to figure out why they were so off.

[scheming daemons]

4. "what say you" is an O'Reilly-ism. And RCP and the WSJ are right-wing sources.

Your OP is worthless.

[LiberalLoner]

6. +1

[RKP5637]

7. +1, n/t

[Tribetime]

9. that asshole Mclaughlin says it too n/t

[Jim__]

8. RCP has Obama up by 10 in the Electoral College map and ahead in most swing states.

The 1st slide on the right hand side of the page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[NoPasaran]

10. We say "Your concern is noted"

[UCmeNdc]

11. Set Up To Flip Democratic Votes

[LukeFL]

14. We are ready to steal it

[Surya Gayatri]

12. So, you're "uneasy", heh? Hope you're still managing to get a good night's sleep.

"What say you?" Now there's a vaguely familiar turn of phrase.

Wait, where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah, Bill O'Lielly on Faux.

[Jennicut]

13. RCP is a right wing site and puts right wing editorial articles up.

Because the people that founded the site thought the media was biased toward liberals.

I would not worry about. They are in their own reality.

My conservative parents told me last night they are convinced that PA is going to go for Romney. I love my parents but they get all their news from Faux and right wing crap like the article you talked about. Living in the bubble is all on the Repub side.

[BelieveMe3]

15. I wouldn't know what Bill O says

I have never watched his show-I don't even ever stay on Fox while passing by it.

If the implication is I'm a republican-then you're way off.

I was just struck that they are writing pieces that don't just say Romney might win-they are saying Obama has lost and us dems are just in denial. And I was wondering if any numbers anywhere backed that up. As I said, those national polls concern me, but I am comforted by Ohio.