"Rasmussen and Gallop vs. the Rest" by Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Beast

[applegrove]

Rasmussen and Gallop vs. the Rest

by Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Beast

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/rasmussen-and-gallup-vs-the-rest.html

"SNIP..........................................

In the model with the least smoothing, Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a clear Romney lead since the beginning of September. Obama has never led the polls on that graph since September 1:

................................

In all the other polls, on the same unsmoothed graph, Romney was only ahead from October 6 - 13; and then briefly on October 23.

So you either believe that Romney has held the national lead 100 percent of the time since September 1; or you believe that Obama has had the lead for 86 percent of the time since September 1. Obviously, the two models cannot both be true.

They are in completely different universes. Well, as Larkin put it, we shall find out.


..........................................SNIP"

[aaaaaa5a]

1. Thanks. Good info!

[Jennicut]

2. I usually roll my eyes at Andrew Sullivan's atricles but this one was a very good one.

If you look at just the last week or so without Gallup and Rasmussen it is Obama about a point ahead instead of Romney a point ahead. It would make more sense with the state polling we are seeing. Go play around with making your own polling model. Here is mine without Ras and Gallup: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama#!mindate=2012-10-18&smoothing=less&estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=rasmussen,gallup

Are Gallup and Rasmussen wrong or all the state polling and other national polls wrong? I would go with the former.

[demgrrrll]

3. In an analysis after 2008 Gallup ranked 17th out of 23 in accuracy. They had McCain by 10 in Sept

2010 when no one else did. Why does that info get left out of the narrative.