U. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll: TIE: (Obama 49, Romney 49)

[TroyD]

This poll just broke late tonight and was included by Nate Silver in his update which is why Obama dropped slightly today in the overall average and in Ohio. (Obama went up in Virginia and Nevada).

This Ohio poll was conducted from Oct 18-23 though, so the majority of it was before the final debate and it's sampling dates are a bit older than a few of the other Ohio polls this week. Obama was +5 in this poll last month.

But this is why Mitt Romney is not leaving Ohio. It's still close.

Published: October 27, 2012 - 11:13 PM

The most recent poll was conducted between Oct. 18 and 23 among 1,015 likely voters by land-line and cellular phone.

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675

[VirginiaTarheel]

1. Old polling reported as new

This poll was conducted Oct 17-23, all but one day before the final debate.

[TroyD]

3. Oct 18-23

Yes, that's what I said above. It's an older poll, so hopefully it's an outlier.

But as long as Romney remains close in the Ohio polls, it's helping his narrative that he's still in contention.

And it's why Nate dropped Obama slightly in the model tonight.

Luckily the news about the VA poll balanced it out.

Btw, considering that Obama won VA by more than he won OH, doesn't that mean that if Obama wins OH, he is likely to win VA?

[DCBob]

15. Good grief.. that's ancient

ignore it.

[TroyD]

16. I posted it because Nate Silver talked about it last night in his update

It ended up dropping Obama's numbers slightly.

Here's what Nate said:

Romney ticks up to 26.4% (from 25.6%) in 538 forecast. Good poll for R in OH slightly outweighed bad one in VA.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/262407197609316352

[DCBob]

17. its still ancient.

[TroyD]

18. I agree, but tell that to Nate

The point is that for whatever reason, they decided to release this poll last night and it ended up in Nate's model and is being talked about.

Did this paper endorse Romney? That might explain their motivation behind the poll.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. HaHa...only in elections is 5 days considered ancient

[DCBob]

21. especially this election..

[regnaD kciN]

2. 5 - 10 days old is rather stale data...

[Justice4All1]

4. May not necessarily be an outlier but older.

Polls after the debates show Obama with a clear lead, Mourdock's comments weren't reflected either.

If they are tied in that poll, yet Obama leads 67-34 in early votes then Obama leads or have they factored that in, it didn't say? They didn't give RV screens either.

[Fringe]

5. The margin of error is (plus or minus 10 percent.)

Last edited Sun Oct 28, 2012, 09:25 AM - Edit history (1)

Their last poll in 2008 was at a plus or minus of 2.8. 10 percent error seems like a lot.

[krawhitham]

6. And all within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

[WI_DEM]

7. A poll that was begun more than a week ago and completed five days ago...

sorry but this should be disregarded as old. Also what are the early voting figures? All the other Ohio polls break that down.

[pointsoflight]

8. Some real oddities...

Look at this, for example:

They (independents) tilted slightly toward Obama, 46 to 44 percent, after leaning toward Romney 54-25 in the earlier poll.

[imgbitepolitic]

9. Old

Old

[MjolnirTime]

10. nice try, troll

[Cosmocat]

12. Come on

he isn't a "troll" ...

[TroyD]

14. Thanks

Perhaps the poster above doesn't know me well and isn't familiar with the fact that I despise Romney. I won't take it personally.

[Jennicut]

11. The number of independents is really low in this poll (10%), but I am not sure it makes a difference

Also, was it a margin of error of 10% or 3.1%? Was that a typo?

[michello]

13. Does this include the early voting?

[TroyD]

20. The Cincinnati Enquirer just endorsed Mitt Romney

Right in time to coincide with their new Ohio poll. So perhaps that explains why they released it?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121028/EDIT01/310280050/Enquirer-presidential-endorsement-Mitt-Romney

[ProSense]

23. Endorsement: McCain for President

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20081024/EDIT03/810260303

[ProSense]

22. UOC poll 2008: McCain up 2 points

Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain, Obama in 'dead heat' for state's electoral votes

<...>

Boosted by growing concern about the Wall Street meltdown and Main Street credit freeze, Sen. Barack Obama is closing the gap for Ohio's 20 electoral votes in next month's presidential election, according to the latest Ohio Newspaper Poll.

The Illinois Democrat now trails Republican Sen. John McCain by two percentage points -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.3 percent.

"It's a statistical dead-heat," said Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which surveyed 876 likely voters across the state Oct. 4-8.
<...>

The first poll, conducted Sept. 12-16, showed McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 42 percent, with 5 percent of the respondents saying they'd vote for independent Ralph Nader or Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided.

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/10/ohio_poll_mccain_obama_in_dead.html

Nov 3 poll:

Cincinnati, OH--The final Ohio Poll for the 2008 election season finds Senator Barack Obama likely to win Ohio’s 20 electoral votes.

After allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the presidential race in Ohio stands at Illinois Senator Barack Obama 51.5 percent, Arizona Senator John McCain 45.7 percent, and Other 2.8 percent.

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. One thousand three hundred eight (1,308) probable voters were interviewed between October 29 and November 2, 2008.

In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 2.7 percent.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op110308.pdf

That's a huge swing.


Frankly, the 10 percent independent sample in the current poll makes it bogus.

“Independents are now more evenly split between Obama and Romney than was the case in the first poll,” said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which conducted the poll for a consortium of major Ohio newspapers, including the Beacon Journal. They tilted slightly toward Obama, 46 to 44 percent, after leaning toward Romney 54-25 in the earlier poll. (Because of the small number of independents in the poll, the margin of error is plus or minus 10 percent.)

Obama took a significant lead away from Romney among independents and is tied?

[TroyD]

24. Kasich is on Meet The Press right now really pushing the narrative that Romney is leading in Ohio

According to their internal polls.

So they are going all out on this still.

That's why it's too soon to let one's guard down in Ohio.