Nice breakdown of EV: "AP analysis of electoral map"

[barnabas63]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hWkJA1769dnZF6J0MuApzGTkirCg?docId=9ff72e80b198487e973ff16622c41c34


says:

SOLIDLY DEMOCRATIC (186):
LEANING DEMOCRATIC (85):

UP FOR GRABS (61):

LEANING REPUBLICAN (47):
SOLIDLY REPUBLICAN (159):

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Looks like a real up-hill climb for Robme.

[lastlib]

1. I like the sound of that!

[Doctor Jack]

2. Nevada is not a toss up

Obama's solid and leans should be 277, not 271

[amuse bouche]

3. Can't wait for

Money BooBoo to go pound sand

[grantcart]

4. North Carolina is a toss up. Dems are way up in early voting, but it is still close

It cannot be considered leaning Romney.

[Recursion]

5. NC may be a bridge too far this year

But as we can see, Obama doesn't need any of the toss-ups to hit 270.

[grantcart]

6. I don't understand the pessimism in North Carolina.

Colorado I understand because early voting hasn't taken off there.

If it is based on polls I would suggest that none of the polls make any sense in North Carolina because polls are based in defining what a registered voter, and a likely voter is.

In North Carolina with its one stop register/voting stop there is no 'registered voter' or 'likely voter', only too lazy to vote guy and standing in line and voting guy. Anybody can go and register and vote anytime.

If I had any loose change I would be buying NC at intrade. 25%

[Recursion]

7. I agree that kills a lot of the polling models

I just also see the numbers in the actual polls being conducted. OTOH every poll significantly undercounts Latino voters, which is where a lot of Obama's exceeding the polls came from in 2008.