Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Obama surge: up 3 points among LVs, up 12 points among RVs

[ProSense]

Romney lost support among Republicans and independents. The President had been constant at +4 among registered voters until yesterday.



Obama surge!!! Counter the MSM's pro-Mitt narrative.



Daily Election Tracking: 10.25.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12122

Daily Election Tracking: 10.27.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12132

Daily Election Tracking: 10.28.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12133

[budkin]

1. I thought Romney was surging?

[Doctor Jack]

3. Of course he is

Would this man lie to you?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

22. Wolfy Blitzer - you need new eye glasses

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. Let's add the 3 PM Princeton update - see below

As of October 28, 3:00PM EDT:
Obama: 299 Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +2.04%
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 89%, Bayesian Prediction 97%

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

[renate]

20. love it!

[libdem4life]

4. I've got political poll whiplash.

[ffr]

5. Did you see that? Striking. Republicans voting for Obama.

11% of Republicans say they're voting for Obama.

Outstanding!

[WI_DEM]

6. I hope this poll is right.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. These results anger me...

12 among RV, but only 3 among likely voters? I'll take a victory ... but this is why the election is close. It's because a great deal of Obama supporters are still sitting this election out.

My hope is that there is a healthy middle, so, Obama actually leads 50-42.

[Frumious B]

11. Maybe the likely voter screen is too tight.

It's entirely possible that many voters who aren't "likely" to pollsters will vote. That's part of what the ground game is for, especially with early voting. Also, I'd think turnout will be higher in swing states where people know their vote is crucial to the outcome which would help account for the disparity between the swing state polls and the national polls.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

25. Absolutely right

I don't think the election will be all that close.

We carry every state we carried in 2008 except Indiana.

[DCBob]

13. I suspect alot of the RVs who arent going to vote are in non-competitive states.

I cannot imagine a registered Dem saying they arent going to vote in a state like OH or FL or VA, etc.

[renate]

21. good point

I hadn't thought of it being different from state to state. That makes perfect sense. Whew!

[tarheelsunc]

8. 12-point RV gap? Get out the f***ing vote and we've got this!

[ProSense]

16. Or GOTMFV

Samuel Jackson style!

[tarheelsunc]

18. Haha I was thinking of that as I made my post

[BlueStreak]

9. Just to be clear. You're saying Romney is surging to a tie, right?

I thought so because that's what all the networks are saying -- you know, the ones that sell all those ads to candidates.

[Blue Idaho]

10. Chuck Todd, Jake Tapper, Wolf Blitzer, and the rest of the paid political hacks

Would NEVER bias their reporting just to generate more income for the networks... Right?

Sockpuppets not journalists.

[mzmolly]

12. Real Clear Politics appears to have dropped a few polls that give Obama

an edge.

IPSOS hasn't been included since early/mid September.

[BlueStreak]

14. They have their narrative and don't want anything to change that.

2008 was a one-time event where the country once-and-for-all ended racism and made up for all of our national sins. But Obama wasn't a "real" president -- you know, he was different somehow.

And in 2012 we get back to the normal sort of election that we all are much more comfortable with.

That's what all the polls are saying. If they don't say that, then they must not really be polls so we'll just leave them out.

[demosincebirth]

15. Can't understand it that christian fundamantalist are voting, big time, for someone they don't

consider a christian and not for Obama who is one. What does that tell you.?

[BlueStreak]

19. It tells me that there are a lot of racists

and those who aren't racists are authoritarians who instinctively fall into line with whatever the corporatists tell them to do.

And the fundies are the worst of both groups (racists and authoritarians.)

Don't try to reason through it. Their Jesus was a dark-skinned Jew. It doesn't make any logical sense.

[demosincebirth]

26. You mean he wasn't blonde?

[BlueStreak]

28. He would have looked a lot more like this

Than this:

[demosincebirth]

30. I think his hair would have been a little messier

[David Zephyr]

17. K&R. Great numbers. And at the right time, too! Momentum!

!

[ProSense]

23. Today: Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 41 (RV)

Daily Election Tracking: 10.29.12
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137

[PsychProfessor]

24. Will this one end up in the RCP average, ever?

I am just waiting for some positive numbers for the President to knock Romney down off of his +0.9.....

[TexasCPA]

27. No

RCP does not use online polls.

[TomCADem]

29. Of Course, MSM Would Not Actually Use The Word Surge or Momentum