You want to know how great the Obama ground game is in NC?

[mnhtnbb]

I just received a door knock from a neighbor on a nearby street out confirming registrations--and voting--for our precinct in
Chapel Hill.

Yeah. We're going BLUE in NC!

[tarheelsunc]

3. Enjoy your 11 second stay here!

[grantcart]

13. GravisMarketing stopped by to say hi!

[MSMITH33156]

4. True...

I remember McCain spending a ton of money in Minnesota in 2008.

[hrmjustin]

5. Enjoy your short stay.

[Kurovski]

6. Romney is "winding" the entire nation.

[Lex]

8. Heh.

[msrizzo]

9. Beat me to it! :-) nt

[Lex]

7. Same thing you assholes said about McCain.

And look what happened: BOOOM.

[young_at_heart]

2. This Asheville residents prays you are right!

Buncombe County was the only blue one in the mountains, but one can hope!

[mnhtnbb]

10. Wow! I'm impressed! First time I've drawn a hidden by jury response!

Touched a nerve, did I?

[mnhtnbb]

11. The campaign has NOT pulled out: I've seen Obama ads while watching football today.

GOTV remains impressive.

See my thread about NC voter turnout: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251171317

[grantcart]

14. You may also be interested in this dailykos diarist

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1150096/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-9-Yes-Virginia-Obama-Really-Can-Win-North-Carolina

[mnhtnbb]

15. Actually, I'm not impressed with this. LOTS of assumptions...difficult to defend...

counts votes by candidate rather than party.

NC is NOT tabulating votes other than by party at this point.

It's very difficult to know whether the assumptions from 2008 carry over.

We've had disastrous mid-terms...local school board elections which generated
huge uproar...all because Dems did not turn out to vote.

I would hazard a guess that our Dem registration is more truly Dems now.
No way to know the crossover vote...but you've seen some major Repubs
endorse Obama: Stockman (Reagan's budget director); Colin Powell and
even the Winston Salem Journal (Republican country) endorsed Obama
and they haven't endorsed a Dem for President since LBJ.

You also can't know the effect of Michelle and Jill making military families
a focus of their efforts. We have LOTS of active and retired military
in NC.

In other words, I wouldn't trust the assumptions based on previous elections.
I can only put my hope in the 800,000+ more Dems registered than Repubs
in NC.

[grantcart]

16. I think you miss the point

The value is not whether the assumptions are perfect or not, and if you read his methodological piece they are reasonable assumptions.

But putting the question of the assumptions themselves aside the more valuable point is the historical comparision between 2012 and 2008 with the same set of assumptions. In that vein it is very useful in showing a very strong historical point by point comparison of actual performance, whether or not you agree with the assumptions.

[nc4bo]

12. Oh yea you did. You can always tell when you've stung them good and proper.

The screeching, snarling and urinating on the floor are undeniable signs of pwnage.

May I offer you a big ole CONGRATULATIONS!!!

[lindysalsagal]

17. Absolutely amazing.

I can't remember such a surge of energy in opposition to a GOP candidate.

[Phillyindy]

18. Obama has the better ground game, good for 2%

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

19. Better ground game and metrics

I was listening to an NPR interview with a pollster (sorry, didn't get the name) who was talking about the science of identifying the voters you are interested in. He said that social scientists had made a lot of progrees here that was getting incorporated into political campaigns.

He was asked if either side had an advantage and the answer was yes, the democrats are much better versed in this.

The ever dutiful NPR asked why the liberals, and the anwswer was because the people doing the research had contacted them to test the methodologies.

My point is that Obama is probably doing stuff with voter identification that these pollsters are not accounting for and we may be doing better than anyone knows at this point.

Since Democrats have more sporadic voters, getting them to the polls will yield better results than the repubs, because most repubs vote in every election, regardless.