2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama internals reportedly show Obama +4 in Colorado.
DailyKos writer says that Obama internals are matching PPP
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1151294/-CO-internals-conversation-and-what-is-breaking-to-Obama
Obama leads by 4 in Colorado
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-4-in-colorado.html
PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama's position improving slightly in the state after his debate victory this week. He now leads Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 50-47 spread last week.
Colorado voters think Obama was the winner of Monday night's debate by a 51/38 margin, and it seems to be having a positive impact on his approval numbers. 51% of voters give him good marks to 47% who disapprove, up from a 49/49 spread last week. Romney's favorability numbers are unchanged from a week ago with 48% of voters rating him favorably and 49% unfavorably. Voters trust Obama more on both the economy (50/46) and Libya (53/44) than they do Romney.
Obama has a 51/43 lead with independents. Beyond that his advantage is being driven by large margins with women (54/44), Hispanics (65/34), and young voters (60/35). Romney's main areas of support are with men (49/47), whites (52/46), and seniors (56/41).
When Gary Johnson's included he gets just 2%. He's polled at higher levels over the course of the year but this is what tends to happen with third party candidates as the election gets closer- their support evaporates. That's why we have tended not to include Johnson in most of our polling over the course of the year. Johnson draws slightly more from Obama than Romney, leaving the President ahead 49-46 when he's in the mix.
krawhitham
(4,645 posts)RandySF
(59,023 posts)It's a private conversation supposedly between the author and someone who works in the Obama campaign,
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Its a comment from someone who saw the internals and 'leaked it' unofficially to a friend.
On Friday someone on the inside told me that they were hearing very good things about absentee voting in FL.
Yesterday this
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014282128
For my part I find PPP the most reliable and take their polls whether good or bad as the most honest snapshot of a race.
In any case CO was the swing state I was most pessimistic about.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)They have Obama +4.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)blazeKing
(329 posts)"Colorado's amendment to legalize marijuana continues to lead for passage with 53% of voters saying they plan to support it to 43% who are opposed. "
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Fringe
(175 posts)"Me retiring to Colorado MON", in my best Jamaican accent.
blazeKing
(329 posts)only 5% undecided. Undecideds as we saw in California nearly all break against legalizing. It still doesn't even bring them within 5 points and we have less than 10 days left.
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)of somewhere around 3 points. So I think he's holding on to a lead there. He won't win it by like 9 points like '08 but a win's a win.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)He provides the range of what internal polls show.