Some numbers from TENNESSEE: ROMNEY (+25)

[TroyD]

If Romney is really (+25) in Tennessee, that means he is overperforming the (+15) McCain got in 2008 by 10 points. And if that's the case, it's states like this that could be artificially inflating his National lead. Getting bigger leads in deep Southern states won't help him in the battlegrounds.

This pollster had Romney only (+6) here in February.

10/16 - 10/21

609 LV

PRESIDENT

Romney - 59

Obama - 34

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SENATE - Corker +38

Corker (R) 59

Clayton (D) 21

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http://mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/MTSU-Poll-Fall-2012-Release-1.pdf

[MFM008]

1. what a surprise.

shocked.

[TexasCPA]

2. Great news

I would rather see Obama down 25 than 10. The only problem is downstream though.

[michello]

3. I thought this was established last week.

Everybody knows why Mitt is ahead in the national polls, It's because of the red states.

[LisaL]

8. ITA.

Romney is doing well in the South.

[fujiyama]

4. Yep, he's really hated in the south

and more specifically whites in the south.

It's really amazing that twenty years ago Clinton carried TN and other southern states (like AR and LA) fairly easily but these are the states that have shifted completely out of reach. But Gore's own loss in the state was an early sign of the state (and much of the region) trending away.

But at the same time VA and NC are in play, two states Clinton didn't carry either time and weren't looked at as battlegrounds until '08.

[blazeKing]

7. Appalachia

Clinton was one of them and spoke like one of them. Obama doesn't look like them, doesn't talk like them etc. They don't trust Romney either I'm betting but boy do they not like Obama (race, character). Gore lost TN because Bush, again, even though it was fake ..he did convince them he was like them. Yeah *puke* but that's reality. Appalachia really doesn't take too kindly to people they consider foreigners. I know, I went to school there for 4 years. We still do well in the cities though.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

9. Romney really isn't one of them either

hopefully they will vote for Jesus instead of Romney

[fujiyama]

14. Yeah, Appalachia has been Obama's area of weakness all the way back to the primaries

I'm not sure if people really remember the videos coming out of WV. Real nasty stuff and full of ignorance. Sure enough, McCain's few states of improvement over Bush were in Appalachia (TN, KY, WV, AR). It's too bad there is so much hate in those states. They're really beautiful.

[TroyD]

17. True - those were the states where Hillary did really well against Obama

I was on Team Hillary during the 2008 primaries because at that time I knew her slightly having met her during the Clinton years when she was First Lady and Obama was a new guy on the scene I hadn't met before.

But while I was glad that Hillary did well in many states, it was troubling when the voters in WV admitted many of them were voting against Obama because he was black. David Gergen himself reprimanded them on CNN at the time for doing so.

Hillary won WV & KY by 30-35 points I believe.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

20. "I was on Team Hillary during the 2008 primaries..."

[aaaaaa5a]

5. I rec'd this because I think this point is valid.

Romney is running up numbers in traditionally southern GOP states that won't matter with regard to getting to 270. This is the only logical answer to link the national and state polls with any kind of clarity.


Lets be honest, if Obama were losing by 3-4 points Nationally across the board, he would not be competing in CO, FL, OH and VA.


I first noticed this with the Presidents approval rating. Even when the President polls in the mid 40s, he is always around 50% in the North and West. It is the south which drags the overall number down. The Democrats have a southern problem. NOT a National problem.


BTW.. Obama will likely win the majority of the white vote in the East and West. Its only the south that brings his numbers down.

[Welcome_hubby]

6. In other shocking news, Obama leads in D.C.

Really.

[TroyD]

12. As stated above, we know how this state will vote

That's not the point of the thread.

It's that red states can give us a clue as to where Romney's support is really coming from.

[helpisontheway]

10. I feel bad for my family in Memphis

They are voting in huge numbers (very large family) for Obama in a forever red state. Hopefully their votes will help the president win the popular vote.

[reflection]

18. I am in Memphis

and I can't believe my Obama sign is still standing. I've had more people drive by and give me eat-shit looks than I can count. Plus they rag me at work nonstop. It's a mouthbreather's paradise down here.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. I don't understand why you're posting this.

[TroyD]

13. Did you read my post?

As stated above, we know how this state will vote

That's not the point of the thread.

It's that red states can give us a clue as to where Romney's support is really coming from.

[OldDem2012]

15. I'm curious why you think anyone here would be confused as to where Mitt's getting votes. nt.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. EXACTLY!!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. We already have a clue.

[Dan]

23. but I wonder,

how many will really come out and vote for Romney - his religion will matter...

[BlueDemKev]

16. Oh,well.

I wasn't really planning on Obama winning Tennessee, anyway.

[Jennicut]

19. I really wonder how much improvement Mittens will have over McCain's #'s.

Very telling in the national polling if all the red states are polling similar to this.