Here's the math: Clinton needs 215 votes...

[brooklynite]

She has 2168 (elected AND super); she needs 2383.

She will get them by the time NJ is called on June 3rd.

The media will say she's won the nomination. She will have confirmed support from her superdelegates and SHE will say she's won.

There will be no defections; in fact, most of the undeclared super delegates will sign on.

Democrats will travel to Philadelphia, knowing Clinton will be the nominee. Clinton will determine the theme and speakers for the Convention. Clinton will negotiate with Sanders AND OTHER PARTY LEADERS over the tone of the Platform, but will still largely drive the process.

Clinton will be nominated on the first ballot. She will win in November.

That's the math. That's reality.

[JonLeibowitz]

1. "She will win in November."

I guess you don't need my vote then?

Seriously though, we don't know what will happen between now and November. It is in the nature of humans to underestimate the likelihood of rare events which shift the ground beneath our feet.

[Sheepshank]

4. Haven't you already stated over and over you won't vote for her?

Why are you attempting to imply that the op has made that decision easy for you?

[JonLeibowitz]

10. I haven't done that. I said my vote is private repeatedly.

[Sheepshank]

13. Ok

[TekGryphon]

5. Is that you Karl Rove?

How long should we wait to call it?

[brooklynite]

7. True, but one thing I've learned not to get emotionally invested in my candidates...

...as many of the Sanders folks appear to be. My analysis is based on cold-hearted data analysis, not dreaming.

[CorporatistNation]

9. THIS NUMBER IS...IS A TOTAL FUCKING LIE! The Supers Do Not Count for the 2383 to WIN Outright!

Pledged Delegates are all that count for the 2383... in order to outright win... And that number is virtually IMPOSSIBLE mathematically for her to achieve at this point... The real number for her is a little over 1500 and Bernie is 1200 plus with Washington Delegates not yet awarded. So the other night she netted about 46 delegates more... Now the voter population firms up for Bernie and that is why he is staying in. THIS WILL BE A CONTESTED Convention...Especially after the FBI reports in...

Just like Hillary... Cannot tell the truth for a minute...

[jcgoldie]

15. Thats completely untrue

What moron would include superdelegates in the total necessary for the nomination and then not include them in the delegates acrued by the candidate? If your dumbass argument were true then from the start people would say the democratic nominee needs 59% of the vote to win the nomination... .59*4051=2390 ... but noone says that because its fucking stupid.

[Demsrule86]

18. That is incorrect.

Obama was put over by supers...that is what they do...this is not the GOP...face reality.

[nolawarlock]

30. No it's not a fucking lie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!!! It's not!!!! I tell you!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry. I just wanted to try self-righteous anger for a moment to see how it felt.

Nah, I prefer snark.

[Stuckinthebush]

39. Would you people download the goddamn rules

And read them. I'm tired of having to explain this.

The DNC has awarded each state a certain number of pledged and unpledged delegates

The total needed to win is the simple majority of pledged and unpledged delegates

When each state is called in the roll call they report how many of their total delegates vote for each candidate. This total includes pledged and unpledged.

Clinton will have the win well before Wyoming is called

Just download the goddamn rules and stop posting dumbass bullshit please.

[nolawarlock]

29. Short of an actual earthquake ...

... a tsunami, and a meteor hitting the earth, I think we can consider it a done deal that Hillary is going to win in November.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

50. I think that's overconfident.

My understanding is that professional bookmakers tend to have her around a 75% chance of winning - good, but not as good as you claim or as good as I'd like.

[Betty Karlson]

55. ^pretty much this ^

[riversedge]

2. And that (your post) deserves a big REC. Thank you

[TekGryphon]

3. And 98% of progressives will fight like hell through November...

... to get her and every down-ticket progressive into office.

A handful of people who confuse the progressive movement with a single identity will sit out, but who cares? Let's be honest - anyone who says they're staying home because a single person lost a nomination never supported the progressive movement to begin with. They supported a man. One man. That's it.

There are thousands of town, city, county, state, and national elections that need to be won by progressives. They, not Bernie, and not Hillary, define the movement.

It's time DU became about that movement again, and stopped being about a single identity.

[nolawarlock]

32. +10,000

So well said.

[vt_native]

6. She will be the nominee for the party

but her negatives will cause her to lose in the general election.

[leftofcool]

38. Uh no. Try again.

[JaneyVee]

8. Shes still gaining superdels. Even flipped a Bernie superdel.

[Skwmom]

14. That is not true. She did NOT flip a Bernie superdel.

[imagine2015]

11. Clinton actually needs 738 votes in order to capture the nomination among elected delegates.

You're only 523 off.

Hillary needs to win 738 out of the remaining 1,243 pledged delegates to capture the nomination.

[Adrahil]

17. So how many does Bernie need again?

This is over. It's just become a long painful defeat for Sandernistas.

[imagine2015]

28. More than 738 in order to be nominated by the elected delegates. That's won't happen on 1st ballot

[Adrahil]

56. Exactly. However, remember that the Supers vote on the first ballot.

There won't be a second ballot. And barring disaster, there is no reason for Supers to vote for Bernie in the kind of numbers he would need to win the nomination.

[Demsrule86]

19. She does not

Are you serious...she does not need 738 delegates...she is ahead...that is it folks...the supers vote with the candidate who wins the delegates. That is their job...we don't do contested...Sorry Bernie won't have a second ballotl...he will get out in June I think.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

12. Minus one FBI Director?

Who remembers an unprecedented FBI raid on a the Congressional Office of Rep. William Jefferson (D)? Although I was no fan of Petraeus, FBI prosecution of a CIA director was also unrivaled in history. I believe China and Russia were hitting U.S. State Department servers and regularly disrupting email, causing most U.S. Embassy personnel to use personal servers; but the FBI could alter the equation.

[snowy owl]

16. You're on a roll. When's the war. House legislation to draft women now.That should suit a war hawk.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/833b30d9ad6346dd94f643ca76679a02/house-committee-votes-require-women-register-draft

House committee votes to require women to register for draft

All those poor and minority grandmamas. So sad. We are running out of able bodied young warriors.

If this earns a hide, remember my words.

[msongs]

22. women want equality they must share the responsibility equally as well. that is VERY democratic nt

[snowy owl]

25. When men have babies, you can tell me that and I might believe it.

On the other hand, I'm for women enlisting just like men. But I think you missed the point of my post. It is more about having enough bodies to send now that we've signed up for a war hawk.

[morningfog]

20. Show your work.

She will reach the 2,026 at about the same time she reaches 2,383, including super's commitment. I agree that it will happen on June 7 and she will say something to the effect that she "now has enough delegates committed to her to secure the nomination." The news outlets will call her the presumptive nominee.

I dont think she will have it until California's results, or one of the other June7 western states. It takes a while to calculate the estimated delegate allocation anyway.

If Bernie manages to sweep the west coast and takes CA, it could be an awkward night. We'd wait with bated breath through NJ and then watch Bernie win western states. If Bernie then win CA, it won be called for him, but she would still get enough delegates in the loss to get her to the pledged majority.

[msongs]

23. winning is not enough he must win by a humongous margin nt

[brooklynite]

24. Here...

Indiana: 45 (54%)
West Virginia: 15 (51%)
Kentucky: 30 (54%)
Oregon: 25 (40%)
Puerto Rico: 30 (50%)
New Jersey: 70 (55%)
Total: 215

[morningfog]

26. Fwiw, Green Papers has her 231 out, with 2,152 total.

I don't see it being "called" by anyone until CA results. But as soon as a winner is declared in CA, she'll be declared the presumptive nominee, unless something wild happens between now and then.

[JonLeibowitz]

33. Uhm, New Jersey is called roughly 3 hours before California. The primary date is June 7

Source: http://new-jersey.state-election.info/

Also, June 3 is a Friday.

[Garrett78]

34. It's mathematically impossible for her to reach 2026 before California.

So, of course she won't hit that mark until then. But she will hit that mark and then some.

[SidDithers]

21. DU rec...nt

Sid

[kcjohn1]

27. Your assuming Bernie plays ball

The most important factor is she will not have the number of pledged delegates needed. The Supers can say whatever they want now, and change their minds at the convention. Not saying its likely, but its certainly a possibility with a FBI investigation.

Normally if this was establishment vs establishment candidate, the process would play out like you said. The thing is DNC/Establishment have no leverage over Bernie. His whole career is based on running against them, and he owns them nothing. Unless they give him what he wants (which is unlikely), he will go in there and fight for delegates.

[brooklynite]

31. I'm not assuming that at all...

...my point is that what he does will be irrelevant. The super delegates will remain in Clinton's corner. Sander has no compelling argument, or strength to threaten.

[Biaviians]

35. Hillary would lose in the GE. Bernie would dominate.

[Garrett78]

37. Odds are she'll win in an electoral college landslide.

By relying on the same voting bloc that elected and then re-elected Obama.

[Biaviians]

42. But Obama is Obama. The same people who said no to her in '08?

[Garrett78]

45. Who do you think is voting for her in the primaries?

POC and women, as well as some white males. That's who Obama won with, and that's who will likely put Clinton in the White House.

[Biaviians]

46. She'll need independents too. Trump could run away with many of them

Independent Bernie supporters wouldn't ever vote Trump but I'm worried about the millions of others.

[Garrett78]

47. Obama lost the independent vote in 2012.

And he lost the independent vote by double digits in the crucial state of Ohio, yet he won Ohio and was re-elected in an electoral college landslide.

[Biaviians]

48. Obama is well liked enough. Just not sure she would do as well.

Not a good bet.

[kcjohn1]

40. It won't play out like you said

Because someone who won 45% of the vote is not conceding defeat. Typically the nature of these conventions are to unite party under one message and talk about the "future", platform, etc.

If Bernie does not concede defeat prior to the convention, the talk is not about what is happening at the convention, but how this plays out, and how Hillary unites the party, etc. Whatever her agenda is for the convention will be become secondary, and the primary narrative will be Sanders, and how DNC controls him and his supporters.

[Garrett78]

41. Clinton came a lot closer in 2008 than Sanders is this year.

And she conceded. Sanders will, as well.

[kcjohn1]

44. That is because she is/was part of the establishment

And would be crazy to be going against them on suicide mission. Imagine if she did that. What would have happened to her political future? She would have been ostracized and lose all political capital. For what? 1% chance of winning? She did the smart thing. Played ball, and in return she got cushy position as SOS, and set up her run in 2016 by having the whole party behind her.

Sanders is an outsider. The guy was not even part of the DNC until this year. His whole stick is running against those in position of power. He is not like your typical politician who they can give the carrot (speaking fees, campaign funds, etc) or the stick (withhold funding, fund their opponents, etc).

[Garrett78]

36. When the final delegate count is something like 2175 to 1876, there will be no fight.

There will be no contested/brokered convention.

[morningfog]

43. You should correct your post. NJ is on June 7, same as CA.

[lumberjack_jeff]

49. The supers may be super n'all, but they still don't get to vote before July. Sorry. n/t

[brooklynite]

54. Like I said; she'll win on the first ballot...

But she'll be acknowledged as the nominee at the end of the Primary period, because the super delegates will reassert that they're sticking with her.

[aikoaiko]

52. I doubt Clinton will negotiate on substance with Sanders. It's not in her nature

But otherwise you're probably correct.

[beachbum bob]

53. thats the math and the math doesn't lie.....unlike those who wish to get your money out your wallet.

sanders has reached the point where it is becoming shameful exercise of fraud