2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTad Devine: No Contested Convention Unless PD Gap Significantly Closes
This seems like a reasonable position, let's see if the message stays consistent. I'm still not certian there isn't some daylight between Devine and Weaver on this issue.
In an interview with me today, top Sanders adviser Tad Devine shed a bit more light on this question: He conceded that if Sanders does not significantly close the current pledged delegate gap with Clinton, it will be borderline impossible to persuade super-delegates to switch from Clinton to Sanders.
I think its going to be very, very difficult for us to persuade large numbers of super delegates to move if we dont significantly make progress in the pledged delegate count, Devine told me.
We believe we have a shot at winning if we make great progress between now and then, Devine also said. We concede that if we dont make that progress, then the task of moving all these super delegates is practically impossible.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/05/03/a-top-adviser-to-bernie-sanders-makes-a-key-concession-about-the-race/
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Devine just keeps milking this.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)What does "significantly" mean?
I think it ultimately comes down to whether there is (a) a sense of momentum on his side, (b) serious questions about Hillary's electability, and (c) an apetite in the party for a floor fight. I don't think any of these things will be true.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)The appetite would be seriously lacking. The only thing that could change variable c) (appetite) would be great concern over variable b) (Hillary) - but that potential concern won't ever be looked at seriously unless a) (momentum) is surging toward Sanders at the end. I agree it is unlikely to play out that way - but not completely out of the question.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)have other ideas.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Proud Liberal Dem
(24,437 posts)by getting the Superdelegates to put her over the top under more favorable circumstances, they're not going to do it for Bernie this year even if the gap closes somewhat.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... themselves
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)That is disloyal, for someone taking the salary that he does. If he feels it is conflicting with his future, (he's so important) he should step down.
I say this because now HE is in conflict with the campaign, all were told Bernie would go to the convention. Bernie is in the middle of a money bomb, to finance any of it, and Tad is now disrupting it.
Sometimes it gets to this point, where people don't agree. If you want to go out and speak in conflict, which brings harm, then it's time to go.
Maybe Bernie should tell him, "you're fired".
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)He seems to be the more sane one in that team. He knows damn well that the idea that SD's will vote for Bernie based on some nebulous idea that he would run more strongly against Trump, when Hillary has won the majority of pledged delegates, is absolutely silly. (Especially given the fact that GE polls this far out are not very accurate. And especially given the fact that the optics of taking the nomination out of the hands of the WOMAN who had won to give it to a MAN will be some really bad optics.