Final results from Princeton Election Consortium, 10/30/12

[regnaD kciN]

EV
Obama 305
Romney 233

Meta-margin
O+2.36

Odds of re-election
Random Drift 93%
Bayesian Prediction 98%

http://election.princeton.edu/

[charlyvi]

1. OK I've never heard of these folks before this election.

Are they reliable? Please be honest.

[Alekei_Firebird]

2. I think Sam Wang was dead accurate about 04 and 08

He's incredibly reliable.

[charlyvi]

3. From Sam Wang's lips to G--s Ear

But it seems too good to be true.

[BlueDemKev]

4. It does seem too good to be true, however...

...even if we can't get 305 EV's, I'll be more than happy to settle for 280-290 EV's!

[RandySF]

6. I believe Wang gave Kerry a 75% of winning in 2004.

[AaronMayorga]

10. The Meta-Margin predicted a Bush victory, but he personally predicted a Kerry victory.

[Tutonic]

12. So did Bobbie Kenndy Jr.

n/t

[Maraya1969]

15. They didn't factor in a steal in Ohio.

[cthulu2016]

21. Or getting millions fewer votes

[regnaD kciN]

11. On the contrary...

...Sam called 2004 exactly. It's mentioned on his website. I think the person giving Kerry 75% was Zogby.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

17. He didn't want to believe his own method, basically.

I know how he feels.

[AaronMayorga]

19. He assumed that undecideds would vote against the incumbent (Bush 43) as it was a well documented

trend at the time (which he called an "error&quot . He takes about it in the site's FAQ.
http://election.princeton.edu/faq/

[AaronMayorga]

9. He was off by 1 electoral vote in '08.

And, in '04, his model correctly predicted the outcome (Bush win / exact margin). He's been on NPR's Science Friday along with 538's Nate Silver, so yes, he's reliable (arguably more so than Mr. Silver).

[doc03]

5. That's the final report from them? n/t

[regnaD kciN]

8. Final one for the day...

...hence my putting the date in the subject line.

PEC updates six times per day, at 8 A.M., 10 A.M., noon, 3 P.M., 5 P.M., and 8 P.M. (all times Eastern).

[doc03]

13. Thanks n/t

[elleng]

7. Minus stealth.

[2roos]

14. Princeton is the best polling site if you like math..and maybe even if you don't

A better approach than Nate Silver - Professor Wang doesn't bother with any data other than polls.

Don't worry about the math - just check his % numbers - and the graphs are easy to decipher.

[StrongBad]

16. Sam Wang

What's interesting is that his model is much more simplistic than Nates but turns out just as good (and in some cases better) predictions.

[freshwest]

18. I like that 305 number. I think it should be 400, though. In my not so humble opinion...

[ProudProgressiveNow]

20. Convincing win. nt

[TroyD]

22. Is the 'Meta-margin' the popular vote?

Does that refer to by how much Obama will win the popular vote?