2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWashPost: Conservatives willing to give the election to Hillary to preserve their integrity.
Al Cardenas: "A movement can survive the loss of an election cycle, but it cant survive the loss of its purpose, and thats what were battling here.
The extraordinary resistance of many figures on the right this past week to Trump has not been prompted merely by objections to his temperament and fears about his electability in November. At the core has been a calculation by self-identified movement conservatives that they would rather preserve their entrenched ideological project than promote a nominee whom they believe would violate their creed and ethos.
Its a crisis, said Al Cardenas, a former chairman of the American Conservative Union who is withholding support for Trump. If we do away with the fundamental strength of the conservative movement, which is our ideas and values and principles, then you dont have anything left but politics. A movement can survive the loss of an election cycle, but it cant survive the loss of its purpose, and thats what were battling here.
The moment potentially marks the closure of a historic half-century in Republican politics in which conservatives have accrued dominant influence on Capitol Hill, in gubernatorial mansions, at think tanks, on talk radio and in the grass roots. Since Barry Goldwaters unsuccessful but edifying 1964 presidential run, the conservative movement has been at the crux of Republican campaigns, from Ronald Reagans 1980 sweep to the 1994 revolution to the tea partys rise in 2010.
Yet, by taking a stand they see as a stroke of moral clarity, conservative leaders are at risk of separating their coalition from a Republican Party in which voters coast to coast have effectively shifted the center of gravity by choosing Trump as their standard bearer. In the primaries, Trump defeated a string of classically conservative candidates by peeling away many of the movements core supporters: evangelical and working-class white voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-spurs-some-conservative-leaders-to-step-back-from-the-gop/2016/05/07/9aedf0bc-13d3-11e6-81b4-581a5c4c42df_story.html
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This is a remarkable perhaps historic development within the Republican party.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)I wouldnt count on it. But, I do agree we are witnessing the implosion of the Republican party. That deserves a round of applause.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They mostly afraid of losing their power and influence. Trump makes them somewhat irrelevant. Its quite an amazing turn of events.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)is basically empty and the next steps are truly into the abyss. Gotten 'em brave, too. Enough people finally, very belatedly took the lead in saying no to Trump, that more and more others are now finding it safe to follow.
Let's just hope some of the better conservatives in public office are able to rise to leadership from this mess. The ones who lead them to this point are without doubt busy working how to keep their empires intact. McConnell is famous for being an aprincipled bundle of ambition, whose sole true ideology seems to be personal power.
And, how about if some of those who have had too much probity to enter GOP politics over the past 15 years or so finally start stepping up? We'd be seeing them in a couple years.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... or at least the end of the GOP as we know it. I doubt that the party will completely dissolve, but it's well on its way to becoming impotent, fragile, and a mere shell of what it once was. It opposes everything and stands for nothing. It's the party of NO solutions, NO ideas, NO compromise, NO common ground.
Their base is dying off (in some regards, this can also be taken quite literally) and they've spent so much time catering to that base, that they've failed to bring in new people and new ideas. And in the process, not only have they failed to bring IN new people, they've PERMANENTLY ALIENATED an entire generation. As a result of that, whatever changes they do make will only be meaningful to the next generation. So, we're looking at about 20 years before they're a threat again.
In the meantime, their majority in Congress will likely last only as long as their terms do. Over the course of the next few elections, the worst of the worst will be voted out, or they'll just age-out in office. Same thing goes for the governors and state-held offices. If we can take more control of those before the next census in 2020, then we can start to do something about the horrid gerrymandering.
All these things are so important, and obviously so, it still amazes me how Bernie-voters are less likely to vote in down-ballot races. (And then they act all proud about how they're "sending a message" by not voting.)
~ President Barack Obama
apcalc
(4,465 posts)On multiple levels , I believe they are mistaken.
RKP5637
(67,108 posts)it's not going away. They will seek their next Trump(s) into the future.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)Consider:
* If you factor out Franklin Roosevelt, no party has held the White House for more than 12 years since 1912 -- and no party has elected back-to back two-term presidents since the 1820 reelection of James Monroe.
* In the last 40-50 years, recessions have occurred every 8-11 years (1973, 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008), which means will likely see one in the next presidential term.
* The landslide losses of Goldwater, McGovern, and Dukakis (Dole fits the pattern, too, but I still won't say the GOP won in 2000) all lead to their parties retrenching and retaking the White House in the next election cycle.
I certainly don't wish it, but historical precedent strongly favors Hillary being a one-term president.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)Once you get past her gender, she's basically George H.W. Bush. Of such stuff world-historical figures are not generally made.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)SharonClark
(10,014 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)Zambero
(8,964 posts)On the other hand, it refuses to learn from past experience.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)MEANS EVERYTHING TO THEM. THEY WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO NOVEMBER.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They are freaking out about Trump. I really think many will never support him.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)better than Sanders supporters coalescing around Hillary. Most Republicans feel that their culture is under attack. They feel that Congress is slipping away from them. Most Republicans feel that the Supreme Court is their only salvation. Don't be fooled by their current state of grief.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They will hang their hopes on Hillary being a disastrous ineffective President then they can win with a "real" conservative in 2020.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)generation if they lose this election. They will embrace the suck by November. I have know doubts on this subject.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If they retain control of the Senate.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)the people deciding on Obama twice. They're locked in now which supports my premise that, once their wounds heal, they have no choice but to rally around Trump or risk losing the Court for a generation.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)but I still think there be enough "pissed off/I dont care" R voters sitting this one out to make this election a huge landslide victory for Hillary.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)highlight the Supreme Court implications more than any other issue. This is just May and their egos are bruised.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Many think he's just posing as a conservative for the ultimate power grab. They even doubt he will appoint a conservative to the SC. I think this is a true movement away from Trump, in order to, as the article says, save their core principles. I sincerely hope this movement fractures the party for decades to come. Our country will prosper, and we will become more aligned with the other advanced countries of the world.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Society. Trump is a wheeler dealer. He will understand the leverage his nomination can return to him from Republicans. He will not squander that chip.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)My perception of Trump is that he only understands his constant craving to feed his insatiable ego. He is definitely not the brightest bulb in the chandelier, and rarely thinks anything through before acting. The oldest maxim in psychology is that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Using that guide post, and not telepathy, I assume he will continue to behave like an ignorant, impulsive oaf.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)conservative and agrees with them on a lot of issues. For example she said says she is against Citizens United but is happy to use it to help her win. I don't think she'd be in any hurry to turn that decision around.
The oligarchy (Goldman-Sachs and the Koch Bros) have admitted they would be happy with either Bush or Clinton. They see them as not far apart and very supportive of the oligarchy. Now Bush is out, the Oligarchy is happy to throw their support to Clinton.
Response to rhett o rick (Reply #16)
Post removed
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)My point is the Oligarchy loves Clinton and will happy with her SCOTUS choices. And she isn't about to choose anyone left of herself so I don't see the Court pulling Left.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)succeed trying to replace a far Right Justice with a far Left Justice. That's just common sense.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)And when she signs legislation that "enhances" SS, approves the TTP, etc, it will be the Republicon's fault.
Obama's choice is certainly not Left. He accepts Citizens United.
PufPuf23
(8,776 posts)under the DWS DNC and convince me that this has been a concern of the Democratic Party establishment.
Look at all the right wing legislation and foreign policy now championed by the neo-liberal Democrats,
I have been a registered and voting member of the Democratic party since 1972.
Look at how Hillary Clinton and the Democratic establishment treats the FDR New Deal style Democrats.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Because I don't accept that assertion.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)A fair chunk of GOP voters vote for Clinton (or don't vote) to stop Trump. And some GOP leaders either don't support Trump or actively oppose him. Clinton wins the WH.
But...
1) They are not likely to abandon their favorite GOP senator or Congressperson.
2)The day after the election the GOP regroups, and becomes even more obstinate in the open opposition to Clinton, and push back harder to prove that they are still the opposition party and still conservative.
Gridlock writ larger than ever....Except on the more conservative side of Clinton's policies like TPP and the even worse "free trade" plan with Europe, "fiscal responsibility" and so forth.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)get along with the Republicons very nicely and she will sign their legislation.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)I hope she is clever enough to force/trick them into agreeing to deals that ultimately benefit our side more than hers.. much like Obama has done during the past 7 years.
-none
(1,884 posts)as Bernie Sanders is doing to the Democratic party -- And for the same reasons. People are fed up with conservative control and finally have someone else to vote for. A someone they believe is not just the lesser of the ever more conservative/3rd Way evils this go-round.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)leaders to fix things. Germany and Italy turned to fascism and although some in the USofA would have loved that, Prescott Bush, we turned to FDR a relative progressive. We have that same decision now. A lot of Americans are tired of the continual damage being done by the status quo supported by the moderate/conservatives like the Clintons and Bushs. Some are turning to fascism via Trump and some are turning to Sanders more like FDR.
We need to get the Big Money FAt Cats out of our government.
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)Until they repudiate supply-side economics and free market Utopianism they will be spinning their wheels. Not to mention a philosophical mindset that refuses to acknowledge the impact of history on individual starting points. I won't hold my breath.
JudyM
(29,248 posts)That's my problem with Hillary right there. And she's proving it again by tacking right, courting rethugs, rather than aligning with democratic creed and ethos.
Looks to me as if she aligns herself with whatever it takes to win, whatever it takes to entrench her power and financial interests. That's what I have learned about her from reading the history of her actions, and watching her in present tense action, in this primary cycle. Terribly sad that this is the behavior some would hold up to young girls as a role model.
Just my view and feelings about this... I'm more let down about her than I am about trump (not that he's better, just that she has let down the foundational principles of honest, democratic governance) - the rethugs can worry about what to do about him.