2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumQuinnipiac/NYT/CBS Ohio Poll, Obama +5
I don't think this is old. It looks like the article was released early maybe.
In Ohio, according to the latest poll of likely voters by Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News, Obama runs nearly even with Romney among white voters who do not have college degrees.
That helps explain why he appears slightly better positioned there in the closing week of the campaign than in Florida and Virginia, where the polls found that Romney holds an advantage of about 30 percentage points among those voters.
The presidential contest has become an intense state-by-state fight, with the climate in Ohio shaped by months of efforts by the Obama campaign to portray Romney as a job killer who opposed the president's decision to bail out the auto industry.
Obama, who has a 50 percent to 45 percent edge there, also appears to be benefiting from an economic recovery in Ohio that is running ahead of the national recovery.
The poll found that nearly half of all white voters without college degrees there say the economy is improving, and most give Obama some credit. Only about a quarter of those voters in Virginia and Florida say their economy is getting better.
The polls, along with interviews with strategists and supporters in the three battleground states, illustrate the dynamic facing both campaigns in the final days of the race. The race is essentially tied in Florida and Virginia, the polls found.
The Ohio economy's recovery has complicated Romney's efforts to portray Obama as an ineffective leader. The president is seen in a favorable light by 52 percent of likely voters, compared with 46 percent who have a favorable opinion of Romney.
Yet the poll here showed that the race is tight, with Obama's 5-point edge the same as last week but cut in half from a month ago.
Among the likely voters in Ohio who say they are paying a lot of attention to the race, Obama's edge narrows to 1 percentage point, or essentially tied, which underscores the extent to which the race will turn on the get-out-the-vote efforts of each campaign.
"It seems like the economy is on an upswing," Kathleen Foley, a special-education teacher in Dayton, said in a follow-up interview. "I truly believe that in the next few years, our economy is going to see an upswing. I'd like Obama to get some credit for the work he's done."
A nationwide poll of likely voters from The New York Times and CBS News, which was released Tuesday evening, found that more voters now view Romney as a stronger leader on the economy and Obama as a better guardian of the middle class. The president was the choice of 48 percent, with 47 percent for Romney. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, has tracked the presidential race with recurring polls in key battleground states. The three latest surveys, which were conducted Oct. 23-28 among likely voters on land lines and cellphones, are the final series in the project.
http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_21892682/poll-ohios-working-class-may-be-key-obama
Good find.
Looks like the article is a New York Times article.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/us/politics/race-narrows-as-campaign-enters-its-final-week.html?ref=politics
DrToast
(6,414 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)the article I linked is different from the one in your OP.
Your article is about Ohio and the NYT article is about the national numbers.
pointsoflight
(1,372 posts)You're right, not old. Was due to be released tonight.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)This was on Quinnipiac's website:
Results of a swing state poll on the presidential matchup in Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be available at 7 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 31.
So, good deal if it's the same poll that will be released this morning!
DrToast
(6,414 posts)I think maybe it was published early by MercuryNews.com
This is a good poll, too. +5 is amazing!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)50-45. So, if it is a new poll, that shows remarkable stability and with a week left, well, really, less than a week now, it's hard to see Romney making up that ground. Interested to see their FL and PA numbers.
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)All these polls have stabilized in Ohio ... well, except for Rasmussen!
DrToast
(6,414 posts)It does look like these are the latest numbers.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Anyone else seeing the same thing?
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)DrToast
(6,414 posts)It was in the MOE, but they have Obama up.
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)God that's gotta be disheartening for Romney.
But hey, he's climbing back to within 5% in PA! LOL
Left Coast2020
(2,397 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,377 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)From what I can tell, it came out after Nate completed his nightly model update. He included the SurveyUSA poll, but I don't see this new CBS poll in there.
That means that Obama may go up even higher tomorrow in Nate's model when this new poll is factored in.
Obama is now at 78% Chance in OHIO tonight in Nate's calculations.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)I think this is one of the articles that was supposed to be released with it.
I think it got out early.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Great news for Obama! And the country.
We win Ohio! we win the election.
This is why Romney is making a late play in PA, MI and MN. He needs to find an alternative path to 270. And WI and OH have been cut off.
His campaign has become wondering nomadic tribe looking for a place to call home!
BainsBane
(53,056 posts)Thank you!
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)I thought Ras said OH was R+2?
Could Ras be wrong? Say it ain't so!
Left Coast2020
(2,397 posts)A Favorite of sean "hasen't-any"