CA and NJ represent 2/3 of the remaining delegates; the Sanders folks like to talk about "momentum".

[brooklynite]

Let's check in, shall we?

California:



New Jersey:

[mcar]

1. But polls don't count

Neither do votes, in some instances.

[brooklynite]

3. Actually I was referring to the momentum the Sanders people are claiming...

...remember how Sanders is supposed to snatch up California and tie Clinton for PDs?

...and the THREE month period is since voting started/.

[hrmjustin]

9. I think CA will be more competitive but NJ won't be.

[itsrobert]

13. 538 missed on two contest

Seems pretty good.

[morningfog]

4. Can you show those two states over a six month period?

[brush]

5. You might want to look at New York over six months — right across the river

Last edited Mon May 9, 2016, 10:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Jersey's major population centers are in the northern part of the state and many of those people commute to New York.

IMO the Jersey results will be much like New York's, which doesn't bode well for Sanders.

And as far as California, it's very diverse. Do I need to say what's been shown over and over?

Sanders usually doesn't do well in states with diverse populations.

[morningfog]

6. Well those answers were not at all to my question.

I'm asking for the polling trend lines for the two states in the OP for the past six months.

If you don't have them, I don't need your droning on about other shit.

[brush]

8. Why so sore? I suggested you look at trend lines for New York over the last 6 months

Because Jersey's would most likely be similar.

The California stuff was an added bonus just for you.

[Demsrule86]

15. That is what happens

when candidates disparage states where most of the Democratic vote is minority.

[onehandle]

10. Hillary is solidly ahead nationally, by pledged delegates, and by actual votes.

So what's your point?

[morningfog]

18. Accuracy. Nothing more or less.

[brooklynite]

16. Doesn't seem much different...

[morningfog]

19. Thanks.

[ucrdem]

12. California feels the Bern:

[Demsrule86]

14. Jersey alone

will end Sanders fantasy trip.

[morningfog]

20. Jersey votes the same day as CA and four other states on the penultimate day of voting.

Saying Jersey alone would do it doesn't add much.

[Tarc]

21. If Hillary takes NJ at 57%, the margin for the rest for Bernie jumps to ~70%

[morningfog]

22. Yes, and it's all in the same day. June 7 has long been the

day that Hillary could actually secure the pledged delegate majority. Save DC, the last day of voting. Whatever happens between now and June 7 will finalize the race. Nothing will happen to alter the race between the closing of the polls in NJ and the few hours later west coast poll closings.