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2016 Postmortem

Alekei_Firebird

(320 posts) Wed Oct 31, 2012, 05:34 PM Oct 2012

Predicting FiveThirtyEight's win% for Obama tonight

How many here think it's gonna reach 80%? That'd be so sweet, and it'd almost be as if it were mid-September again!

4 replies

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Predicting FiveThirtyEight's win% for Obama tonight (Original Post) Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 OP

The model is designed to move slowly bluestateguy Oct 2012 #1

It could break 80% tonight Life Long Dem Oct 2012 #2

I say 78.4% budkin Oct 2012 #3

Haha nailed it! budkin Oct 2012 #4

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)

1. The model is designed to move slowly

Reply to Alekei_Firebird (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 05:38 PM

Oct 2012

So one good day of polling will not give you a huge lift. You need several days of good polling.

Having said that, with 6 days until the election, I'd take a half percent gain each day.